Market turmoil intensifies as BTC rebounds and XCN rises 110%. On-chain data shows strong panic sentiment.

Macroeconomic Environment and Market Trends

Recently, the global financial markets are facing significant pressures. The uncertainty of U.S. tariff policies has brought significant shocks to the market, severely shaking investors' confidence in the U.S. economy. This impact may continue to exist in the coming months, further disturbing the market. Meanwhile, U.S. Treasury bonds and the dollar are showing a downward trend, while the U.S. stock market has experienced extreme volatility, even witnessing a historic surge amid an overall bear market environment. The cryptocurrency market has also experienced massive fluctuations.

Market Performance Overview

This week, Bitcoin experienced a significant rebound after a sharp decline, but many small-cap tokens suffered substantial drops due to delistings and other reasons. The market overall lacks a clear hot direction.

The top gainers include XCN, FARTCOIN, and GAS, which increased by 110%, 100%, and 60%, respectively. The biggest losers include BERA, EOS, and MEW, which decreased by 40%, 20%, and 20%, respectively.

It is worth noting that BERA, as a DeFi public chain project, has fallen below its long-term support level, with its on-chain stablecoin scale decreasing by 300 million USD in the past week. On the other hand, FARTCOIN, as a meme coin in the Solana ecosystem, has surged several times against the backdrop of a sluggish overall market, becoming the leader of this round of rebound.

On-chain data analysis

The capital inflow into the Bitcoin market has clearly slowed down. Market liquidity has sharply contracted, causing the total market value of altcoins to shrink from $1 trillion at the beginning of the year to around $600 billion. This decline has a wide impact, with almost all sectors experiencing significant depreciation.

Institutional funds experienced a slight net outflow, and a general sense of panic is spreading across the global market. The market capitalization of stablecoins has also declined, reflecting a clear increase in investors' risk aversion.

From the long-term trend indicator MVRV-Z Score, the current value is 1.6, close to the bottom range. This indicator reflects the overall profit situation of the market, and the current value indicates that holders are generally in a state of loss.

Futures market situation

The futures funding rate remains at a low of 0.00% this week. Generally, a rate between 0.05% and 0.1% indicates high long leverage, which may signal a short-term top; while a rate between -0.1% and 0% suggests high short leverage, possibly signaling a short-term bottom.

The Bitcoin futures open interest continues to decline, indicating that the main market capital is withdrawing. The futures long-short ratio is 1.9, which is in the greed zone. However, this indicator, as a contrarian measure of retail sentiment, has recently seen a decrease in its reference value.

Spot Market Overview

This week, the price of Bitcoin has experienced severe fluctuations, while the altcoin market lacks new investment narratives for support. The uncertainty surrounding U.S. tariff policies continues to escalate, leading to increasing pressure on global financial markets. This weakness has spread to the vast majority of asset classes, and the cryptocurrency market has not escaped this bear market.