Ahead of the Fed's interest rate decision, analysts predict that Bitcoin breaking through $106,000 will kick off a new round of pump.

Market Observation

The Fed will announce the June interest rate decision tomorrow at 2 AM, and the market is highly focused on the officials' expectations for the number of rate cuts this year in the dot plot. Some market strategy experts have indicated that while two rate cuts this year remain the baseline expectation for most policymakers, a few officials may prefer to cut rates only once, which will impact market sentiment. If the dot plot shows only one rate cut, or if the Fed Chairman indicates after the meeting that there is no urgency to cut rates, the dollar may strengthen as a result. Traders expect that the Fed may implement the first rate cut of 2025 in September.

At the same time, as the geopolitical situation in the Middle East escalates, global market concerns about crude oil supply continue to rise. According to reports, U.S. officials have stated that the next 24 to 48 hours will be crucial in determining whether the current situation can be resolved through diplomatic means or if military action will be taken. The U.S. has increased its military assets in the Middle East, including aircraft carriers, destroyers, and other defensive deployments. However, some analysts point out that the market's calm response to the heightened geopolitical tensions may be due to investors not overly pricing in the worst-case scenarios of developments.

In the cryptocurrency market, Bitcoin has experienced a pullback due to geopolitical risks, dipping to around $103,000, currently reported at $105,478. Analyst Michaël van de Poppe pointed out that while the current price range has not confirmed a bottom, it provides a good accumulation opportunity. He expects that if Bitcoin can break through $106,000, it will initiate a new round of strong rise. Meanwhile, the short-term support level below is around $103,000; if the price falls back and stabilizes, it may rebound, with a lower support level near $100,000.

Analyst Arslan Butt suggests paying attention to the key resistance levels of $108,951 and $110,406. If Bitcoin can reclaim $109,000 with increased trading volume, a bullish position may be considered. Analyst Anas Hassan believes that if it can break through the psychological barriers of $109,507 and $111,991, Bitcoin is likely to target the Fibonacci extension goal of $119,164. If geopolitical tensions escalate further, it may damage the key support area of $104,800--$105,400, leading to a drop in BTC to $103,100 or even $100,385.

Regarding Ethereum, the current price is hovering around $2,548, with multiple recent attempts to break through the $2,700 resistance failing. Some analysts point out that although on-chain data shows that large funds continue to accumulate, indicating a long-term bullish signal, the short-term technical outlook remains complex. A breakthrough at $2,600 is needed to reignite upward momentum, while another analyst believes that Ethereum will target $2,800, which will then drive other cryptocurrencies to rise.

In terms of market dynamics, the three major U.S. stock indices generally closed lower, and cryptocurrency-related stocks showed weak performance. Notably, the U.S. Senate passed the GENIUS stablecoin regulatory bill this morning, which establishes a federal regulatory framework for stablecoins. However, the market's reaction has been relatively muted, with related concept stocks performing flatly, and some stablecoin concept coins also declining alongside the broader market, suggesting that the market may have already priced in this favorable news. Additionally, several social media accounts related to cryptocurrencies have been unfrozen.

Several rapidly growing projects have emerged on the blockchain. Among them, a token issued by an industry celebrity with 100,000 followers quickly reached a market value of $16 million, and currently maintains around $10 million; a token related to a live streaming content platform quickly reached a market value of $10 million but has since fallen significantly, currently around $6.5 million; in addition, a newly launched token currently has a market value of $70 million.

Key Data (as of June 18, 12:00 HKT)

• Bitcoin: $105,461 (year-to-date +12.71%), daily spot trading volume $34.805 billion
• Ethereum: $2,535.82 (Year-to-date -24.03%), daily spot trading volume is $22.424 billion
• Fear and Greed Index: 48 (Neutral)
• Average GAS: BTC: 1.5 sat/vB ETH: 0.38 Gwei
• Market share: BTC 64%, ETH 9.3%
• 24-hour BTC long-short ratio: 1.1222
• Sector Performance: GameFi down 4.6%; NFT sector down 4.2%
• 24-hour liquidation data: A total of 68,397 people were liquidated globally, with a total liquidation amount of 322 million dollars, including 83.05 million dollars in BTC liquidations, 102 million dollars in ETH liquidations, and 7.93 million dollars in XRP liquidations.
• BTC Medium to Long-term Trend Channel: Upper Channel Line (107134.00 USD), Lower Channel Line (105012.53 USD)
• ETH medium to long-term trend channel: upper channel line (2591.97 USD), lower channel line (2540.64 USD)

Note: When the price is above the upper and lower bounds, it indicates a medium to long-term bullish trend; conversely, it indicates a bearish trend. When the price is within the range or repeatedly passes through the cost range in the short term, it indicates a bottoming or topping state.

ETF Flows (As of June 17)

• Bitcoin ETF: +$216 million (net inflow for 7 consecutive days)
• Ethereum ETF: +11.0947 million USD

Today's Outlook

• The XRP ETF will be listed on the Toronto Stock Exchange on June 18.
• A certain project will launch the second season of its token airdrop on June 18, with 25% of the airdrop available for immediate claim.
• The airdrop of trading platform Alpha will be conducted in two phases starting from June 19.
• A trading platform will launch Matchain (MAT) on June 19.
• Immutable: IMX staking will launch on June 19 for Immutable zkEVM
• Melania Meme (MELANIA) will unlock approximately 26.25 million tokens at 8 AM on June 18, accounting for 6.58% of the current circulating supply, valued at approximately 6.9 million USD.
• Sonic (S) will unlock approximately 47.63 million tokens at 8 AM on June 18, which accounts for 1.65% of the current circulation, valued at approximately $15.8 million.
• Polyhedra Network (ZKJ) will unlock approximately 15.53 million tokens on June 19 at 8 AM, which is 5.04% of the current circulation, valued at approximately $30.3 million.
• The Fed interest rate decision in the US until June 18, ( upper limit ) (June 19, 02:00): Previous value 4.50%, forecast value 4.50%
• The Fed chairman will hold a monetary policy press conference (June 19, 02:30)

Top 500 market cap biggest rises today: StormX (STMX) rise 434.95%, Altlayer (ALT) rise 13.08%, Status (SNT) rise 11.99%, KUB Coin (KUB) rise 6.78%, Aleo (ALEO) rise 6.77%.

Hot News

• The Solana spot ETF planned by VanEck has been registered with DTCC, with the code VSOL.
• Multiple large funds buy HYPE coin and open leveraged long positions
• Eyenovia invests $50 million to establish HYPE reserves, and the company will be renamed "Hyperion DeFi"
• The US GENIUS Act was approved in the Senate, marking a historic step forward in stablecoin legislation.
• Ink will launch its native token INK, with airdrops aimed at early participants of the liquidity protocol.
• Multiple crypto-related social media accounts have been unfrozen.
• Eigen Labs launched the EigenCloud platform and received $70 million in investment from investment institutions.
• The exclusive TGE of a certain trading platform wallet, issue 25, will launch DAOBase(BEE).
• Canadian listed company Luxxfolio chooses Litecoin as its reserve asset
• Data: A user on a certain chain sold 1 SPK for nearly 20,000 dollars
• World Gold Council: 95% of central banks expect gold reserves to rise in the next 12 months
• Infini has suspended all card services, and the card opening fee will be refunded to the account within 10 working days.
• Citibank: Gold will fall below $3000 in the coming quarters.
• Investment institutions reduced their holdings of Circle stocks at a high level on Monday, cashing out $51.7 million.