Want to get on board now! 2025 is the last big bull market for Bitcoin, with a long winter behind?

Abstract:

As of the time of writing this article, 2024 Q4, this is the beginning of a new round of bull market in the cryptocurrency circle.

The value of Bitcoin in the overall economic industry is analogous to bonds and stocks in financial history, and it is the 'fuel' for the new round of development in human technology. In the intermediate industry, it is the currency and index of the digital world that humans will inevitably enter in the future. In the micro-industry, it is the landing of new round of legal regulation, making the issuance of coins compliant, thus attracting global private investment demand.

This may be the last "grassroots" cycle for the crypto industry, and also the last mega cycle with a huge beta surge for Bitcoin. This means that after this cycle, the beta of Bitcoin will decrease significantly, but it does not mean that the broad token issuance market will no longer have a hundredfold alpha opportunity.

The top of this bull market for Bitcoin will occur in Q4 2025, with a high point of $160,000 to $220,000. Before that, apart from the already occurred 'first wave', there are still two significant mid-term bullish trends.

It is now the year 1999 in the Internet age, which means that after the bull market reaches its peak in the next 12-18 months, the crypto industry will experience a long winter just like the bursting of the dot-com bubble in 2000-2001. Of course, this is also an opportunity for industry reshuffling. I am looking forward to it.

When I feel that the bull market is coming, it is the time of the highest output of articles.

About 4 years ago, at the beginning of the last bull market cycle, I wrote "How should we invest in digital currencies in 2021?" When we talk about the entire digital currency industry, it is inevitable to first mention the value and price of Bitcoin.

If you already believe in the value of Bitcoin, you might as well skip to Part V for expectations on the future price trend of Bitcoin.

One

From the perspective of the industry, I would like to divide the value of Bitcoin into three levels: macroeconomics, medium-term, and micro-level. From a macroeconomic perspective, Bitcoin represents the hedging expectations of the entire human financial market, as well as the third capitalizable 'financial medium' in human history after bonds and stocks. From a medium-term perspective, Bitcoin is the 'index' of the Web3 world, the best output value that humanity will inevitably enter in the future 'digital age'. From a micro perspective, Bitcoin's compliance and regulation are gradually improving, attracting a large amount of 'traditional old money' in mainstream countries such as the United States. In third world countries, it has attracted domestic private investment demand that cannot be met.

Image source: ForesightNews

In terms of macroeconomics, we consider Bitcoin to be a groundbreaking asset in the history of human finance. The most important thing is to understand the changes in financial history. In the first part of the series 'How to Invest in Digital Currency in 2021?', we start from the perspective of the history of technology to redefine the position of digital currency. Behind every technological revolution, important financial infrastructure and new financial 'mediums' are created.

Image source: ForesightNews

Behind finance, there are changes in the situation. Standing at the present, it may be the most chaotic moment in global political and economic situation in the past 30 years, and also the most vulnerable and likely to undergo a major reshuffle of the traditional financial order. Now I can't trace back, whether there were similar financial venues like the London Stock Exchange and the New York Stock Exchange appearing at the time of famous financial bubbles such as the 'Dutch tulip mania' hundreds of years ago, or whether Dutch vendors were accustomed to offline trading, but speculation did not establish rules and order, causing this bubble to eventually burst. However, in the long river of history, every technological innovation that is remembered by humans has a transformation of financial paradigm behind it, and the transformation of financial paradigm is the inevitable product of the changes in the situation. These are mutually causal, but also complement each other, and eventually write a colorful stroke in human history. I can't imagine either, if the dramatic change in the social structure brought about by the North and South War in the United States did not encourage technological innovation to enter the industry from the social class, whether the Second Industrial Revolution would still begin in Britain, but ultimately flourish in the United States, becoming a milestone.

At the same time, I have a more radical view: while everyone is talking about economic downturn and how to find viable business models, why does business itself need a business model, and has the term 'business model' lost its meaning?

There are more of my thoughts here, slightly complicated, I will not elaborate here. It will be further expanded as the most important part in my future another article "Supplementary to the Four-Part Series on Cryptocurrency Capital: A Brief Discussion on the Philosophy of Business and Investment".

Related reading: "Cryptocurrency Capital Theory Quadrilogy Part One: Token Issuance, a New Financing Model"

In today's "social capital" (or expressed as "private economy") the value of equity enterprises may account for 95%, and listed companies with stocks as the value anchor account for the majority of capital value. However, in the future, these values may exist more in 'business' (why can't there be a limited partnership system) and 'token' (foundation).

2

Take some time to talk about the industry's perspective on Bitcoin. At the end of my book in 2021, the first point in the eight predictions mentioned that Bitcoin is unbeatable. Refer to the e-book version of my book 'Unlocking the New Code - From Blockchain to Digital Currency' Afterword Four -

Image source: ForesightNews

From the perspective of the technology industry, Web3 is an inevitable trend in the future, and Bitcoin is the core asset of the entire Web3 world, or economically, it should be called "currency". In the ancient barter system, gold was the most common "currency". After the development of modern national and financial systems, national currency became the most common "currency". In the future, with the advent of the digital age, in the virtual space of the metaverse, all life in the digital world will need a new "currency".

So, some people are holding on to the idea of 'how can what you invest in be a token', which is meaningless. Blockchain and crypto need '+', just like when someone asks you what race you want to invest in now, and you say 'I want to invest in equity companies', 'I want to invest in an internet company'. As a special industry, Web3, and as a new market tool and financial medium, crypto has gradually integrated with other industries - blockchain + AI = DeAI, blockchain + finance = DeFi, blockchain + entertainment / art = NFT + Metaverse, blockchain + scientific research = DeSci, blockchain + physical infrastructure = DePin....

The trend is very clear, but what does it have to do with us? Or, how do we increase our wealth after seeing the trend clearly?

Now let's turn our attention to AI.

The main theme of the business society in recent years is one bright and one dark. AI is undoubtedly a hot spot that capital has been chasing after and can be brought to the forefront. Crypto is surging in the dark, where various legends and myths of getting rich gather, but it is also restricted in many ways, making it an unattainable place for many people.

The potential of the AI market is widely believed to be at the trillion level, especially in the generative AI, AI chip, and related infrastructure industries. However, for investors, they believe that AI is a sunrise industry and are willing to invest their money into it. But what should they invest in? Can AI ETF index funds cover the growth of the industry comprehensively and effectively?

No. In 2024, Nvidia's stock price nearly tripled, while most AI-themed ETFs performed mediocrely during the same period. Looking further ahead, Nvidia's stock performance is not necessarily positively correlated with the overall growth of the AI industry. Chip companies will not always be dominated by Nvidia alone.

Image source: Foresight News 2024 mainstream AI ETF performance compared to Nvidia stock performance

AI is the main theme, but will there be a product that can anchor the future market value development of the AI industry, and as the overall industry value of AI increases, the value of this ETF can also increase? Like the Dow Jones Index / S&P 500 ETF represents the development of Web0 (equity enterprises), the Nasdaq ETF represents Web1, and there is no index-based investment opportunity for Web2. For the Web3 world, or the value of the entire digital world of future humanity, the most suitable index is Bitcoin.

Why is the value of the Web3 world necessarily measured in Bitcoin?

Because, from the birth of computers and the internet, humans are destined to spend more and more time in the virtual world, rather than the real world. In the future, with VR/AR glasses, we can sit at home and visit Yellowstone Park, experience the palaces of the Tang Dynasty in China, enter the virtual meeting room you set up, and have coffee face-to-face with friends on the other side of the Earth... The boundary between reality and virtual will become increasingly blurred. This is the future digital world, or the appearance of the metaverse. And there, if you want to decorate the virtual space, or let the digital people there dance for you, you will need to pay - it cannot be in US dollars, RMB, or physical assets. The most suitable and the only currency that the entire digital world can accept is, as far as I can imagine, Bitcoin.

In the movie 'The Revolution of 1911', Dr. Sun Yat-sen held a $10 bond and said, 'After the revolution succeeds, this bond can be exchanged for $100'.

Image source: ForesightNews

Three

Back to the present.

We live in a financially stable country where fiat currency can be trusted. However, this does not mean that the financial systems of the entire world are as stable as the society we live in: the first thing the new president of Argentina did when he took office was to announce the cancellation of Argentina's fiat currency system – anyway, no one in Argentina trusts the government-issued currency, so it is unnecessary. In 2023, Turkey's inflation rate reached +127%, and correspondingly, the digital currency ownership rate of its citizens reached as high as 52%. Especially in developing countries, in the process of gradually improving their information technology infrastructure in recent years, traditional fiat currency mobile payment and digital currency payment methods have developed almost simultaneously. In contrast, just like in China during the period of vigorous development of information technology around 2010, skipping the 1.0 era of POS machines and bank card payments directly into the 2.0 era of mobile payment, developing countries have started to develop the 3.0 era of digital currency payment in recent years, directly replacing the 2.0 era of mobile payment methods, making digital currency payment a common scene in daily payments.

Here is an interesting argument. Bitcoin has no controller. If it is used as a currency or "currency", it cannot achieve the macroeconomic regulation function of fiat currency by the government. In fact, the US dollar is also issued by corporations, so-called macroeconomic regulation by the government has to give way to the interest groups behind it. The power of capital is the driving force behind the world's operation. If we insist that fiat currency has macroeconomic regulation, then the interest groups that mine Bitcoin are the biggest regulators.

Image source: ForesightNews Changes in inflation rates of major economies in recent years

Image source: ForesightNews The inflation rate in Argentina has changed in recent years

From a micro perspective, with the acceleration of capital flow, the technology and financial cycles are becoming shorter. In an environment with weaker economic anti-fragility, the traditional equity market requires a lock-up period of 8-10 years, and the characteristic of long-term investment has caused many concerns about liquidity issues. However, token rights provide the possibility of early realization, which not only attracts more retail funds, but also provides early investors with more flexible exit expectations.

In the traditional equity market, angel rounds or early-stage investors typically seek partial exits through equity transfers or corporate buybacks after about 5 years of the company's establishment, when the company has entered a more mature stage of development but still has some time before IPO or acquisition (usually 8-10 years). This model can effectively alleviate the time cost of investment, but its liquidity is obviously more limited compared to currency rights.

The attractiveness of the currency right model lies in allowing early investors to realize capital earlier through token issuance or circulation, while attracting a wider range of market participants. This flexibility may have a profound impact on the traditional equity market landscape. This can be referenced in 'Cryptocurrency Capital Theory Volume II (Part 2): Battlefield without gun smoke - VC or token fund?'.

On the other hand, the financial markets of most sovereign countries in the world are highly fragmented and lack liquidity. The inherent global financial characteristics of cryptocurrencies have attracted a large amount of capital from countries such as South Korea, Argentina, and Russia. In addition, the stock market development in Southeast Asian countries, primarily Vietnam, has been unable to keep up with the wealth accumulation of the middle class, which has led these emerging classes to bypass the domestic financial market and transition directly to cryptocurrencies. Against the backdrop of global digital currency regulation and integration with mainstream financial markets, the investment demand for private assets in these countries cannot be met by weak local financial infrastructure. The main board market (KOSPI) and the secondary board market (KOSDAQ) of the South Korean stock market have more than 2,500 listed companies, but 80% of these companies have a market capitalization of less than 100 million US dollars, and daily trading volume can be ignored. On the other hand, the digital currency market, which has attracted retail funds from around the world, has the most abundant liquidity and has become their preferred investment target.

Image source: ForesightNews. Samsung's current market value and trading volume.

Note: From the chart, it can be seen that the current market value of Dogecoin is about 60 billion US dollars, while Samsung's market value is about 234 billion US dollars, which is about 4 times the market value of Dogecoin. However, the 24h trading volume of Dogecoin has reached 5.5 billion, which is tens of thousands of times that of Samsung.

In the strategic location of the global digital currency market, the United States, it is likely to usher in a new era of cryptocurrency legal system reform in 2025. The two most important bills, FIT21 and DAMS, will affect the future of the cryptocurrency industry. These two blockchain bills, regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) instead of the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), consider token issuance (ICO) as commodity trading rather than securities issuance, thus falling under the jurisdiction of the CFTC. Considering that these two bills are proposed by the Republican Party, and the current SEC Chairman, Gary Gensler, represents the Democratic Party's position, the bills face significant resistance. However, in the case of President Trump's re-election, with the Republican Party in power, the possibility of the bills being passed significantly increases.

To explain this bill, in layman's terms, it is that the coin is treated as a commodity, regulated by the CFTC and legalized, which can greatly promote the enthusiasm of coin financing. Enterprises can legally and compliantly raise funds through coin issuance to attract more capital into the currency circle. And, with a stable channel for long-term compliance development, there will be more people who are still engaged in this industry after making money for a long time. Most importantly, after the United States took the lead in introducing this bill, it will officially unveil the global industrial digital currency financial market, blockchain technology market, competition between countries, "grab projects", "grab talents", in the completely globalized free flow of the currency circle, the future may further occur. If U.S. policy is kinder, or even if the currency is no longer a gray industry but a face-saving financial innovation, the founders who live in Singapore, Switzerland, and other countries that are now relatively crypto friendly will soon have a great migration.

four

Looking back to 2016, when there were only a few types of cryptocurrencies in the world and Bitcoin was like in-game currency that could be directly purchased with RMB in the era of "deposit and purchase" on exchanges, our generation of native token enthusiasts had high hopes for the future. (Refer to the end of the article "How should we invest in digital currencies in 2021?" - Part 1)

Image source: ForesightNews

Image source: ForesightNews

That is also my dream.

My original idea was to achieve these goals in 8-10 years.

However, we only used four years.

It was around that time that I had a new dream - since Bitcoin as a monetary asset has been gradually accepted by mainstream society, then other digital currencies, or tokens, besides digital equity, should also serve as digital commodities, so that in the future digital world of humanity, in addition to financial value, they can also generate utility, allowing humans to better enter the digital world.

Oh, right, this thing later got a new name - NFT.

"Digital goods of the metaverse era" is my definition of the ultimate destination of NFTs, and it is also the Web3 transformation that truly realizes "internet-era goods", digitizes them, and is thus a crucial part of mass adoption.

Therefore, I was determined to build the NFT industry at the beginning of 2021. In the 'Road to the Future - Web3 Five-Part Series' articles, there are my descriptions of its future.

Wu

Of course, the most intuitive way to attract people, or even make more people willing to read my articles, is still relying on the rise of Bitcoin.

It's time to talk about the key points. It is necessary to mention my prediction for the Bitcoin market: The peak of this round of Bitcoin will occur at the end of 2025, with a reasonable range between $160,000 and $220,000. After that, in 2026, it is recommended for everyone to close their positions and take a break.

In my January 1, 2019 paper "Bitcoin Valuation Model in Miner Market Equilibrium – Based on Derivative Financial Commodity Pricing Theory", I mentioned the bottom of the four-year cycle from 2018 to 2021.

Image source: ForesightNews

Image source: ForesightNews

And the bottom of the four-year cycle from 2022-2025 that I mentioned for 2022.

Image source: ForesightNews

From the current perspective, the entire cryptocurrency circle is at a critical crossroads. Today's digital currency industry is like the network industry at the turn of the century, and the bubble burst is not far away in the next 1 to 2 year window. With the passage of crypto-friendly laws such as FIT21 in the United States, the compliance supervision of assets such as currency rights has been completed, and a large number of very traditional old money that once lacked understanding of crypto or even completely scoffed at it will begin to accept bitcoin and carry out 1%-10% level allocation. However, after that, if blockchain and digital currency cannot be gradually combined with traditional industries and truly usher in the transformation of "blockchain + industry", just as the network industry and consumption, social networking, media, etc. combined and changed them, I really don't see any new funds, and what reason is there for this industry to have amazing growth opportunities. Defi in 2020, NFTs and the metaverse in 2021, these are all in the right direction, and they also set off a wave of innovation at that time. Throughout 2024, Bitcoin has repeatedly reached new highs, but the blockchain industry as a whole has not completely devoid of enough innovation to talk about, and the market is just flooded with more memes and Layer 1&2&3 without new "business concept innovations". Moreover, in 2025, as far as I can see, the atmosphere of the entire industry determines that I am pessimistic about the emergence of a milestone "business concept innovation".

When the water rises, the boat rises. Now the water is flooding, and small rafts are everywhere. The boats are vying for the current, and the boatmen are competing to see who can row faster, even mocking the heavy, mechanically powered iron ships. But when the big waves recede, the wooden boats will all run aground. Only by maintaining constant mechanical power can they sail out of the harbor and welcome the open sea.

Even making an interesting prediction, the sign that the bubble in the coin circle has reached its peak will be when Buffett, the world's largest bitcoin opponent, starts to change his stance and even participate in the industry. The phase of revolutionary victory is often the moment when the crisis is most hidden.

The current currency circle can be compared to the Internet era of 1999. After experiencing a rapid and upward surge, the digital currency industry may face a severe adjustment due to a huge bubble starting from the end of 2025. Looking back at history, the Internet industry welcomed Netscape's initial public offering (IPO) in December 1995, and the market frenzy was ignited by Yahoo's listing in April 1996. On March 10, 2000, the NASDAQ index reached a historic peak of 5,408.6 points. However, the bubble quickly burst, and the market entered a cold winter in 2001. Although the broader cold period continued until 2004, the true low point was in October 2002, when the NASDAQ index nearly fell below 1,000 points, symbolizing the industry's nadir from a financial perspective.

Image source: ForesightNews

In 2020, MicroStrategy successfully increased the value of the company's stock by purchasing Bitcoin, achieving a significant coin-linked effect for the first time. Then in February 2021, Tesla's announcement to purchase Bitcoin became a landmark event marking the formal entry of a giant. These historic moments inevitably evoke the '1995-1996' of the blockchain industry - the early days of the internet boom.

Looking ahead, I believe that by the end of 2025, the price of Bitcoin may reach a long-term cyclical peak, but in early 2027, it may touch a new low. And once the FIT21 bill is passed, it may usher in a wave of mass issuance of coins, just like the unprecedented boom of the '.com' era.

If the threshold for token financing is reduced to almost zero, and even ordinary people can issue their own tokens like high school students can easily learn to make a website, then the limited capital in the market will be quickly diluted by the various tokens that flock to it. In such an environment, the last wave of the "furious bull market" belonging to token issuers may not last more than three months. Subsequently, due to the imbalance between supply and demand in the market and the exhaustion of capital, the industry will inevitably usher in a full-scale collapse.

However, before that, in the next 12 months, we still have a potential beta increase of nearly twice that of Bitcoin, and for ordinary people, there are countless opportunities for early coins that can increase hundreds or thousands of times in a very short time due to global liquidity gathering. Why not participate?

Image source: ForesightNews

And looking back, the internet industry, which was once criticized as a 'bubble' when the waves surged in the clouds, is now seeing the Nasdaq index break through the 20,000-point mark. Looking back to 2000, it seemed like a peak at that time, but now it's just a small hill. Even if you entered the internet industry in 2000 and persisted until today, it is still almost the most correct choice.

Bitcoin, one small mountain after another.

It has been 3,202 days since I bought my first Bitcoin on March 7, 2016.

I still remember, the price displayed when I clicked the mouse was 2,807 RMB, which is just under 400 US dollars.

Many people have asked me, how high do you think Bitcoin can go?

This question is meaningless. The price of gold has been continuously reaching new highs in recent days and years.

A meaningful question is, how high can the price of Bitcoin rise before a certain point in time?

Wait and see.

The best is yet to come.

[Disclaimer] The market is risky, and investment should be cautious. This article does not constitute investment advice. Users should consider whether any opinions, viewpoints, or conclusions in this article are in line with their specific circumstances. Investing based on this article is at your own risk.

This article is authorized to be reproduced from: "Foresight News"

Original author: Tony Ling, pen name Long Ye

"Want to enter the market now! Is 2025 the last big bull market for Bitcoin, with a long winter behind?" This article was first published in "Crypto City"