Glassnode report: BTC long-term holders cash out 210 million pounds! Is the bull market over before it even starts?

Long-term holder cashing out in a big way, but no sign of panic dumping

Blockchain data analysis firm Glassnode's latest report, 'The Week On-chain Newsletter: Resilience and Synchronicity,' points out that Bitcoin has surged over 150% since 2024, with prices briefly surpassing $100,000. However, it has recently been observed that long-term holders are selling off their holdings in large quantities, setting a record of over $2.1 billion in daily realized profits; at the same time, new investors are actively entering the market to absorb, preventing significant panic dumping. Behind this wave of high-profit-taking, whether it signals an early end to the bull market remains to be seen.

The report shows that Bitcoin's current bull cycle is remarkably similar to previous bull market trends, such as 2015-2018 and 2018-2021, but with a much larger market capitalization and capital inflows. Surprisingly, compared to previous bull markets, the volatility this year is relatively small, with a maximum pullback of only about 32%, indicating strong buying pressure from the demand side. In particular, the coin holders in the 6-12 month range have contributed to the majority of the selling pressure, while long-term holders of 3 years or more have remained relatively inactive, indicating that they may be waiting for higher prices before selling.

Image source: Glassnode The current bullish cycle of Bitcoin is remarkably similar to the bull market trends in 2015-2018 and 2018-2021 in history.

New users are flooding in, and the chip structure is shifting Please provide the source text to be translated. At the same time, Glassnode observed that the proportion of new users in the overall network wealth has significantly increased, reflecting that more and more people are entering the market at this stage to take over the chips dumped by long-term holders. This is also a common sign of rotation in a bull market: seasoned investors taking profits, while new investors continue to enter the market and chase the rally. However, based on historical experience, true madness and saturation often occur when almost everyone in the market is in a state of huge profits. Glassnode shows through indicators such as the 'AVIV Ratio' that the market has not yet reached the point of excessive excitement, indicating that there is still room for unrealized profits for investors to rise.

Source: Glassnode AVIV Ratio indicator shows that the market has not yet reached the level of excessive excitement, which means that there is still room for unrealized profits for investors to rise.

It is worth noting that although most short-term holders experienced temporary losses, the unrealized losses they incurred did not cause a market shock. The two deeper corrections that occurred in August and September this year did not trigger significant dumping or panic, allowing Bitcoin to maintain a relatively stable upward trend.

The future direction of the bull and bear market is uncertain, and the reports are not lacking in optimism.

Overall, according to the Glassnode report, while Bitcoin is absorbing a large amount of profit dumping, it still shows a healthy overall demand with new funds continuously filling the gap. The reason why long-term investors are selling a large amount is often due to the common phenomenon of 'capital rotation' in the later stages of a bull market, but existing data indicates that the market has not yet entered the 'overall frenzy' stage. Since most of the senior holders have not fully cashed out, there may still be room for an uptrend in the market, and we have not yet seen a sharp decline after the climax of the bull market.

However, investors should still be cautious of the possibility of a sharp pullback, even as Bitcoin continues to surge. If long-term holders continue dumping their coins and there is a lack of demand, the bull market may come to an abrupt end. Whether this rally is a 'to be continued' or the 'peak has arrived' is yet to be determined by Glassnode. However, it is certain that there is still plenty of room for imagination in the Bitcoin market between new inflows of capital and interaction with seasoned long-term investors. Investors may need to continue monitoring changes in the overall economy and market sentiment and evaluate risks carefully.

The Glassnode report: Bitcoin holders dumped 2.1 billion pounds! Is the bull market over before it even started? This article was first published in 'Crypto City'.