The Bank of Rich Country warns: the disconnect between the US stock market and the real economy is expanding, be careful of a short-term big fall

J.P. Morgan issued a report on Monday warning that the U.S. stock market, which has been booming this year, may be approaching a 'hangover period.' The market's surge after the U.S. presidential election appears to be disconnected from economic data, and this disconnect may ultimately need to be resolved, which could mean a correction in the stock market. (Background: Arthur Hayes: The encryption market is expected to experience a big dump on 1/20, and Trump may use a devaluation of the U.S. dollar to boost the U.S. economy) (Background: Is the U.S. economy in a severe recession? Analyst: Bankruptcies are increasing rapidly, similar to the period of the financial crisis) This has been a fruitful year for the U.S. stock market, with the S&P 500 index surging by over 27% so far. However, according to Business Insider, J.P. Morgan has warned that the post-election euphoria in the U.S. may lead to a short-term 'hangover period,' with the S&P 500 index potentially falling by as much as 7%. Economic data is out of sync J.P. Morgan's report released on Monday pointed out that the disconnect between the U.S. stock market and the economy is widening. Despite mediocre U.S. economic data, the U.S. stock market index has continued to rise after the presidential election. The Bloomberg U.S. Economic Surprise Index, which tracks the gap between actual economic performance and market expectations, is currently only slightly above zero, indicating that despite the optimistic sentiment driving the market higher, there have been almost no surprising economic data recently. Sameer Samana, Senior Global Market Strategist at J.P. Morgan, said: 'This is worrisome because the optimism in the stock market has been consistently high since the election. In other words, investors seem to be following the bright future that may lie ahead, completely ignoring the currently disappointing economic data. We believe that this disconnect will ultimately need to be resolved.' Sameer Samana pointed out that from a technical indicator perspective, the stock market is approaching the 'Overbought zone,' and investors need to 'be cautious of a hangover period.' The S&P 500 index closed at 6037 points on Thursday, and in the short term, the index may reach a ceiling of 6,090 points near recent highs. If the index shows a downward trend, it may find support around the 200-day moving average of about 5,515 points, which means it could pull back by 7% from the current level. However, despite the possibility of fluctuations in the short term, J.P. Morgan remains optimistic about the stock market outlook for 2025. The bank's previous report predicted that the S&P 500 index could reach 6,500 to 6,700 points by the end of 2025, and strong support will be provided by the rise in the economy and corporate profits. Other institutions issue warnings J.P. Morgan is not the only one warning of risks. BCA Research believes that due to historical high stock prices and potential weakness in the U.S. economy, the stock market may enter a Bear Market early next year. Societe Generale also stated that based on signs of weakness in the labor market, the U.S. economy still faces the downside risk of 'compressed profits.' Investors need to be aware that if the U.S. stock market experiences a correction, the encryption currency market may also face downside risks. As part of the risk assets, the encryption currency market often has a certain correlation with the stock market, and the increase in economic uncertainty may further weaken the market's risk appetite. Related reports How to judge the U.S. economic recession? Please take note of these 15 key indicators BTC antagonist Peter Schiff: Trump's support for BTC will only weaken the U.S. economy and waste tens of billions in tax dollars Yellen: The U.S. economy's resilience 'has not shown a red light,' achieving a soft landing and serving as the Treasury Secretary after Biden leaves office. 'J.P. Morgan warns: The disconnect between the U.S. stock market and the real economy is widening, be cautious of a big dump in the short term' was first published on BlockTempo, 'The most influential Blockchain news media in the dynamic area.'