Can the US "BTC Strategic Reserve" land in 2025? These time points are worth following.

If Trump passes the BTC strategic reserve through the presidential executive order path after taking office, we may see the landing of the BTC strategic reserve as early as mid-2025. (Previous summary: Michael Saylor: Trump really wants to build a BTC reserve! Has met with the new government team multiple times) (Background supplement: The full text of the "US BTC Strategic Reserve" administrative draft: managing BTC as a permanent national asset) Since Trump's victory in early November, the encryption market, especially BTC, has entered a strong expectation of the "US BTC Strategic Reserve". Obviously, the market will focus heavily on the implementation of this commitment after Trump takes office in 2025. Some analysts believe that this matter will break the bull and bear cycle of BTC, that is to say, any future "interlude" may cause the market to fluctuate sharply. What we can do now is to follow its progress and predict the possible landing time node in advance, and make corresponding preparations. 01. The latest development. Regarding the "BTC Strategic Reserve", there were relevant proposals and discussions in the United States before the presidential election. As early as July 31, 2024, Senator Cynthia Lummis proposed the "BITCOIN Act of 2024", which proposed to purchase 200,000 BTC per year and reach 1 million within five years. Subsequently, during the campaign, Trump promised to become the "Cryptocurrency President" in the BTC industry's speech at the BTC conference. The industry hopes that he will fulfill his promise, establish a BTC inventory through executive orders to ensure that the industry can obtain banking services, and establish a Cryptocurrency Committee. On December 17, 2024, the Bitcoin Policy Institute (BPI) (note that it is not an official organization, but a non-profit organization focusing on BTC policy research. However, it is still an important think tank for decision-makers on BTC-related issues) recently released an administrative order draft, trying to provide reference opinions for Trump's "BTC Strategic Reserve" administrative order framework. This draft clearly proposes: to suggest using 1%-5% of national debt assets to purchase BTC to form a long-term reserve. Led by the Treasury Department, the Federal Reserve cooperates to gradually establish reserves, etc. On December 19, 2024, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell (expected to continue to serve and complete his term after Trump takes office) expressed a cautious view at a news release meeting, Powell said that the Federal Reserve has no intention of participating in any plan for the government to hoard BTC, and such issues are within the scope of Congress's responsibilities, and the Federal Reserve has not sought to change existing laws to allow BTC holdings. From the latest situation, although the Chairman of the Federal Reserve held a conservative opinion, under favorable conditions such as the encryption-friendly US Treasury Secretary nominated by Trump and the "Presidential Executive Order" quickly issued after taking office, these will not affect the Trump team's continued promotion of BTC into the US strategic reserve plan. Extended reading: What impact will it have if Trump really announces BTC as the US strategic reserve? 02. The fastest landing time. Given that the "BTC Strategic Reserve" is not a small issue and cannot be executed immediately by a President’s whim, we will not immediately see its landing. From the current administrative order or legislative process in the United States, if Trump wants to implement BTC strategic reserve matters, he can immediately let the Cryptocurrency Committee conduct policy research and feasibility evaluation after taking office, and officially propose a plan after completion. Then it can be implemented through two paths: Path 1: Presidential Executive Order (fastest in the second half of 2025) Trump's direct issuance of executive orders after taking office is the fastest path, because it can bypass conservative and opposing resistance from the Federal Reserve and Congress, and it is also a reference to the draft provided by the "BTC Policy Research Institute", instructing the US Treasury Department to use the forex stabilization fund (ESF) to directly allocate BTC. However, although this method is convenient and fast, it also has side effects. Although the Treasury Department's forex stabilization fund does not require congressional approval, it can still be investigated and legislatively restricted by Congress. Executive orders can also be overturned and modified by the next president, so its sustainability and stability are not as good as legislation. Path 2: Congressional legislation (fastest in the second half of 2026) If a more stable legislative path is passed, a longer process is needed. After the Cryptocurrency Committee conducts policy research and feasibility evaluation, the bill needs to be submitted to Congress and reviewed by the Senate Banking Committee, and then passed by the Senate, the House of Representatives, and the President for signature before it can be officially completed legislation. This process may experience various twists and turns and is relatively complicated. After all, many conservative members will certainly oppose and obstruct it, so although this path can obtain a permanent and stable bill, it takes a long time, at least from the second half of 2026 to 2027 to possibly land. Recently, the encryption industry is pushing Trump's team to release executive orders on the first day of his inauguration next month to launch his promised Cryptocurrency policy reforms, help promote encryption mainstreaming, and other matters. Therefore, if passed by executive order, we may see the landing of the BTC strategic reserve as early as mid-2025. 03. Several important time nodes. During the period when the administrative order or bill related to the "BTC Strategic Reserve" is "going through the process," the following time nodes may have a significant impact on the market: 1) Around January 20, 2025, before and after Trump's inauguration. Trump will officially take office on this day, and this time marks the beginning of the new president's governance. The relevant policy trends may gradually emerge. The market will closely follow the inauguration speech and the release of its early executive orders. This inauguration ceremony invited many guests and is expected to be very lively, and the financial market will give high attention. 2) Mid-2025, completion of the policy research stage. According to the time calculation, the policy research of the Cryptocurrency Committee will be completed and a feasibility report and draft on the BTC reserve will be submitted as early as the first half of 2025 to the middle of the year. Then Trump can sign an executive order. Marking the official launch of the "BTC Strategic Reserve." 3) The second half of 2025 to the beginning of 2026, implementation details and potential congressional pulling. Signing relevant executive orders, determining relevant frameworks, the US Treasury, the Federal Reserve, and other relevant departments will begin to formulate specific implementation details, including BTC procurement methods, reserve ratios, asset management rules, etc., and then begin formal implementation. During this period, it should not be too smooth, and opposition members of Congress will join the ranks of obstruction and pull back and forth. Finally, if everything goes well and the BTC reserve strategy brings objective "benefits," future legislation may be further promoted, which will have a profound impact on the encryption market pattern. 04. Summary. The road to the "BTC Strategic Reserve" seems to be full of twists and turns, and it is not something that can be landed in a day or two. The earliest will be half a year later, but no matter what, Trump's "US BTC Strategic Reserve" has brought good expectations and "set a good example," driving Central Banks and Financial Institutions, listed companies, and other countries to study and explore the feasibility of BTC reserves. Although there may still be many uncertainties in policy details and final implementation time, we still need to follow and follow key time nodes and make corresponding adjustments at any time.