GoldenOctober2024

Jin10 data on May 8: Futures contracts linked to the Federal Reserve's policy interest rate recovered earlier losses after the interest rate decision was announced. The current pricing indicates a 30% chance that the Federal Reserve may cut rates by 25 basis points as early as June, slightly higher than the earlier 27%. According to futures prices, the probability of a rate cut by July is about 75%.

Jin10 data reported on May 8: The Federal Reserve (FED) FOMC statement: Will continue to reduce the holdings of Treasury bonds and MBS at the current pace.

1. Interest rate expectations: The Federal Reserve is expected to keep interest rates unchanged at 4.25%-4.50% at this meeting, the third consecutive meeting. At present, the federal funds rate futures show that the market expects a 28.4% probability of a rate cut in June, pricing in a cumulative rate cut of 78bp for the whole of this year. 2. Voting ratio: At the last meeting, the members unanimously agreed to keep the interest rate unchanged, but Governor Waller opposed the balance sheet reduction adjustment. The meeting is expected to remain unanimous, but Waller may vote against it if the pace of balance sheet reduction changes. 3. Pace of balance sheet reduction: Pay attention to whether there will be any adjustments to the pace of balance sheet reduction. It is expected to maintain the pace of balance sheet reduction in March, that is, to maintain the upper limit of US debt reduction at $5 billion per month, and the upper limit of MBS reduction at $35 billion per month. 4. Wording of the statement: It is necessary to pay attention to the relevant comments on the economic outlook in the statement, and whether the wording of "increased uncertainty about the economic outlook" in March will be adjusted to reflect the increased uncertainty

Jin10 reported on May 7th that local police stated that people living in the India-controlled border area of Jammu and Kashmir have been asked to relocate to safe places.

In April 2025, the new account opening data for A-shares saw a decline, but compared to the same period in 2024, it still rose by 30.6%, maintaining a steady trend. Monthly comparisons indicate that the number of new accounts opened gradually increased from January to April, with April seeing 1.92 million new accounts, an increase of 22.57% over the same period last year, demonstrating investors' ongoing follow and participation in the A-share market.

On May 7, U.S. Vice President Vance said that the United States is shifting its focus from the 30-day ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine to the formation of a long-term peace solution. His latest indication is that frustration in the White House is growing as Trump fails to achieve his goal of ending the war within 100 days of taking office. Vance said Russia was "asking too much" in the negotiations, and in the end, Moscow and Kyiv needed to negotiate directly to broker a ceasefire. "We've tried to move beyond the obsession with a 30-day ceasefire and focus more on what a long-term solution looks like, and we've been trying to move forward," Vance said at the Munich leaders' conference in Washington. Vance reiterated Trump's threat that he would pull out of talks unless a deal was reached soon. "We hope that both Russia and Ukraine will agree on some basic guidelines for sitting down and negotiating," he said. Vance added that the United States is "happy to participate in these conversations," but Russia and Ukraine

Pakistan's Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif praised the bearish traders for shooting down an Indian warplane and spoke in parliament for the first time. He accused India of using dozens of aircraft to launch attacks, emphasized that the bearish traders were well-prepared, and highlighted that Pakistan is a nuclear power and a major player in conventional warfare, earning high respect from the lawmakers.

French startup Mistral AI launches the enterprise chatbot Le Chat, with revenue doubling in the past 100 days, particularly driven by demand outside the United States. The company was founded two years ago and is valued at $6 billion, with last year's revenue at $30 million. The enterprise version of Le Chat can connect to SharePoint and Google Drive. Mistral AI reduces reliance on cloud service providers, offering independent services to clients.

TD Securities analysts expect the Bank of England to possibly increase the pace of interest rate cuts, leading to a weaker pound. The Bank of England may cut rates by 25 basis points, with some policymakers even supporting a 50 basis point cut. Amid increasing trade uncertainties, the Central Bank may lower its economic growth expectations and hint at further rate cuts. Members believe that subdued inflation will drive the Central Bank to continue cutting rates.

Jin10 data reported on May 7, local time on the afternoon of the 7th, a missile from the direction of Yemen landed in the Red Sea area outside Israel. The Israeli military has not responded to this news, and no air raid sirens have been sounded within Israel.

Jin10 reported on May 7th that a senior Indian defense source stated that the number of casualties resulting from the Pakistani military's nighttime shelling on the Indian side of the Line of Control in Kashmir has risen, with 12 civilians dead and 57 injured. Since the shooting incident in Indian-controlled Kashmir on April 22, which sharply deteriorated relations between the two countries, India and Pakistan have been firing across the Line of Control almost every day. The Pakistani military previously confirmed that, in response to India's airstrikes on its territory, Pakistan shelled Indian positions in Indian-controlled Kashmir at night. India accused Pakistan of "unjustly crossing the Line of Control" to open fire.

Trump's envoy Vitekoff will present U.S. policy at a closed-door meeting of the United Nations Security Council, including the Gaza war and Iran nuclear negotiations. He will focus on a new aid mechanism that allows for the resumption of aid but has sparked controversy. Despite being rejected by the United Nations and aid agencies, the Trump administration is still pushing for this mechanism.

Jin10 reported on May 7 that Shanwai Shan announced that shareholders Dajian Health and Liyuan Jiankun plan to reduce their holdings of the company's shares by no more than 12.8526 million shares through centralized bidding or Block Trading due to their own funding needs. The total reduction ratio will not exceed 4.00% of the company's total share capital, and the implementation will occur within 3 months after 15 trading days from the announcement of this reduction plan (from May 30, 2025, to August 27, 2025).

Jin10 Data, May 7 - In this year's highly competitive New Jersey gubernatorial race, some Democratic candidates are adopting a strategy that could help Republican Trump return to the White House: supporting Crypto Assets and not afraid to say so. Among the six candidates vying for the Democratic nomination, at least half have a history of supporting Crypto Assets, including U.S. Representative Mikie Sherrill, who is leading in the primary. The other two candidates - Jersey City Mayor Steve Fulop and U.S. Representative Josh Gottheimer - are also actively discussing digital assets as part of their campaign. "Crypto Assets are part of my platform," Sherrill said. "It's part of the economy, and we need to get into this field and understand how to move forward in the best way because it’s not going away."

Macron and Merz stated during their speeches that France and Germany will firmly support Ukraine and strive for a 30-day ceasefire. Macron questioned whether Russia would honor the ceasefire commitment, while Merz expressed hope for a permanent ceasefire to be reached soon, but did not make security commitments. The two countries pledged to maintain close contact and work towards establishing lasting peace.

Cuihua Jewelry emphasized ancient gold as a key development direction in its 2024 annual report online briefing, focusing on diversified layouts and integrating the intangible cultural heritage craft of flower silk inlay, striving to launch more innovative and high-quality products to meet consumer demand, enhance brand image and market competitiveness, and lead a new trend in gold consumption.

The Federal Reserve Chairman Powell is expected to maintain his stance, emphasizing that more data is needed before considering an interest rate cut, especially in light of high inflation and strong economic performance. Analyst Tayner believes that Powell will not rush to cut rates and may comment on tariff issues and the independence of the Federal Reserve.

Jin10 data reported on May 7th, on May 7th, according to SAIC Volkswagen news, in April, SAIC Volkswagen's terminal sales reached nearly 83,000 vehicles, a year-on-year rise of 5.9%. Among them, the Tiguan family had terminal sales of nearly 14,000 vehicles, and the Passat family had terminal sales of nearly 18,000 vehicles.

Jin10 reported on May 7 that Dongfang Securities announced on the evening of May 7 that the company implemented its first buyback of A-share shares through the centralized bidding trading method via the Shanghai Stock Exchange trading system on May 7. The number of A-shares repurchased by the company is 1.6641 million shares, accounting for 0.0196% of the company's total share capital, with a maximum purchase price of 9.50 yuan/share and a minimum price of 9.33 yuan/share. The total amount paid is 15.611 million yuan (excluding Money Laundering).

Jin10 reported on May 7 that Livermore Securities showed that AE opened high in the dark market today, soaring 66% at one point, reaching a maximum of 188 HKD, closing up 62% at 183.30 HKD, with a trading volume of 75.84 million HKD; each lot is 30 shares, excluding fees, earning 2120.4 HKD per lot.