5 Coin Weekly Forecast | BTC ETH BNB SOL Sector AI Sector
TL；DR
Last week, the crypto market experienced a roller coaster trend of first falling and then rising. Due to frequent nervousness before the Federal Reserve’s May interest rate meeting, market expectations for a rate cut policy have begun to be delayed, significantly suppressing the coin price. With the increase of market selling pressure, there was a general decline in the first half, while with the positive trend of unemployment rate and non-agricultural data, BTC rebounded around $56,000, driving strong gains in MEME, AI, Cross chain, L2 and other sectors, and the overall market value returned to over $2.3 trillion.
As of the writing date, the fear and greed index in the market has rebounded from 43 to 68, and the trading volume of derivatives has started to rise slightly. The long short ratio has just exceeded 1, and the bullish atmosphere in the market is gradually returning.
Presently, the top four cryptocurrencies in the total market value of the crypto market are still Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH), Binance (BNB), and Solana (SOL). This article will study the performance of various mainstream assets and strong sectors, explore the factors that affect their price trends, and conduct corresponding analysis to provide readers with reference for investment planning.
Bitcoin（BTC）
BTC bottomed out and rebounded last week, closing up about 1.44%, ending its four week contraction and bearish trend. Currently, it is closing around $64,000 and still maintaining a relatively strong performance in the mainstream coin sequence.
To put it bluntly, at the beginning of last week, with the continuous net outflow of spot ETFs and the bearish pressure brought by the divergence of runes, the BTC market was shrouded in a bearish shadow. The BTC, which remained around $64,000, quickly fell to a low of $56,500 on May 1st, marking the first time since February 28th that the BTC has fallen below the critical level of $57,000.
A noteworthy detail is that on the day when BTC fell to $56,500, the entire US spot ETF market experienced a record high outflow of up to $563 million in funds, setting a new record.
But interestingly, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell expressed a clear “dovish” view towards the May interest rate meeting, and the April non farm and unemployment rate data further advanced market expectations for the timing of interest rate cuts. As a result, BTC quickly regained its momentum, rising continuously since May 2, and regaining its previous lost ground in one fell swoop.
From a technical perspective, since the rise of the coin price in early 2023, BTC has experienced multiple “short traps,” where people believe that the short trend has been confirmed by breaking through the key support level in the downward trend. However, after clearing the long leverage, the market quickly stopped falling and rebounded, causing short positions to be trapped. At present, the market has also emerged from a bearish trend after being supported by the 100 day moving average.
Analysis suggests that BTC is currently in a state of adjustment after a sharp rise, and it is unlikely to experience a sharp rise or fall at the moment. The market still needs enough time to adjust to prepare for a new round of unilateral space.
Bitcoin Price Data (Data Courtesy of Gate.io)
Ethereum（ETH）
ETH also experienced a trend of first falling and then rising, with a weekly increase of -3.88%, closing near $3,136.
ETH has only experienced one day of strong performance compared to BTC in the past week, and its overall performance is still passively following the trend of BTC, with few highlights. Despite the positive support from Hong Kong through spot ETFs, the progress of US SEC approval has not been smooth, and the modularization and re pledging tracks have not yet transmitted speculative sentiment to ETH. Under various factors, ETH has not shown relatively strong price performance, but has maintained a consistent pattern of passive following with BTC.
From a technical perspective, ETH once fell below the 100 day moving average in the past week, dropping from the highest of $3,357 to the lowest of $2,817. However, at the bottom, it received technical support from the $2,800 line and began a 5-day rebound with BTC. Presently, according to the ETH daily chart, although the coin price is suppressed by the 100 day moving average, the MACD has shown a bullish signal of bottoming out, and the daily chart has a bullish expectation of forming a downward sloping wedge-shaped relay shape.
Analysis suggests that the trend of ETH in the future is likely to continue to follow the fluctuations of BTC. Pay attention to the pressure of $3,700 above, as well as the support of $2,800 and $2,700 below. These price ranges can be used as key price ranges to observe further upward and downward trends.
Ethereum Price Data (Data Courtesy of Gate.io)
Binance（BNB）
BNB has also experienced a trend of first falling and then rising in the past week, with a weekly increase of -1.37% and closing around $590 this week.
Specifically, the weekly fluctuation of BNB belongs to the normal adjustment trend within the range of $500 to $640. BNB fell from its highest level of $608 to around $537 last week, and then bottomed out and rebounded all the way to the highest level of $602. The market is still competing around the integer level of $600.
Analysis suggests that the price fluctuations of BNB are still influenced by the overall market, and are currently approaching historical highs, forming a rectangular consolidation pattern on the daily chart. Although the subsequent trend is somewhat volatile, in terms of relative position and price range, the trend is slightly stronger than ETH.
BNB Price Data (Data Courtesy of Gate.io)
SOL Sector: SOL, WIF
The trend of SOL is affected by the overall market sentiment, but it is more strong than BTC, ETH, BNB, etc., with an increase of 5.62% in the past week.
Specifically, SOL passively fell from $140 last week to near the strong support level of $120, and then continued to rise as the market improved, climbing to the highest level of $155 at the time of publication. If the market continues to rise or at least maintains its current volatile trend, SOL is expected to break out of a standard W-bottom bullish trend on the daily trend.
Of course, currently SOL has rebounded to near the upper horizontal pressure level, and from a technical analysis perspective, there is still a need to adjust around the current price due to obstacles.
SOL Price Data (Data Courtesy of Gate.io)
It is worth mentioning that the SOL eco has been a sector with outstanding performance in the past six months, and has recently continued to lead the market and maintain a relatively resilient momentum. In the recent market rebound, SOL eco tokens such as JTO, JUP, and WIF have taken the lead in rebounding, especially the series of MEME generated by this eco have seen astonishing growth. Taking Dogwifhat (WIF), which saw a weekly increase of 21%, as an example, last week as Bitcoin fell below the $57,000 mark on May 1st, WIF also briefly fell below the $2.27 price range. However, in the four consecutive trading days from May 1st to 4th, WIF saw an increase of over 31%. This upward trend not only helped it re reach the $3 mark for the first time since April 26th, but also pushed it close to the PEPE market value in the new generation MEME sequence.
AI Sector: WLD, RNDR, FET
The sector with the most impressive rebound in recent times, apart from MEME, is the AI token that the market has started to hype up with the upcoming GPT 5, with the most outstanding performance.
Looking back at the release of GPT 4, it injected tremendous vitality into the AI token market, leading to a general increase of over three times in the prices of related tokens. Therefore, with the recent recovery of market sentiment, people have started to hype up the many AI tokens that may be involved in the GPT 5 that will be launched from June to July.
As of 15:00 on May 6, AI sector tokens such as ARKM, ORAI, RNDR, FET, etc. have seen the highest growth rate, with 24-hour gains of 14.34%, 10.61%, 9.46%, and 9.32% respectively. Some newly launched AI sector tokens such as GROW, TRIAS, AIEPK, etc. have also seen significant increases. The biggest increase was still in WLD, which had the closest relationship with OpenAI when the GPT 4 was last released. The coin rose as high as 16.64% in 24 hours, making it the most popular AI token.
As shown in the figure below, the daily trend of Worldcoin (WLD) is similar to that of Sol, and it has broken through the suppression of the original downward trend line and formed a bullish W-bottom pattern. Despite a rapid rebound, volatile indicators such as RSI have yet to show overbought signals. If the overall market situation stabilizes, WLD can see a pressure level around $7.9 above, while the $4.8 line below is still a relatively effective support area.
WLD Price Data (Data Courtesy of Gate.io)
What is to come?
The performance of mainstream currencies such as BTC, ETH, BNB, SOL, etc. in the past week may vary in strength, but overall, they have a fluctuating rhythm of first falling and then rising. Currently, most mainstream currencies are still undergoing volume reduction and adjustment within the high consolidation range, and the sustainability of the recovery trend remains to be observed.
We expect mainstream currencies to maintain a broad and volatile trend, but we cannot rule out the temporary impact of news factors. For example, at the end of the article, I saw someone interpreting the news of Israel’s ground offensive in Rafah, which has led to a correction in the current market. The current recovery momentum of sectors such as SOL, MEME, and AI has also declined, and market fatigue has once again emerged. Therefore, whether the market can maintain its bullish momentum in the short term still needs to be continuously monitored. Investors should also reduce their operations and leverage during this period, waiting for clearer operational signals.
