Analysis: The US second quarter data is severely distorted, and economic growth is expected to remain weak in the second half of the year.

On July 30, institutional analysis indicated that, similar to the situation in the first quarter, the major GDP data for the second quarter was severely distorted by trade. Economists urged to follow the final sales aimed at domestic private buyers, which are seen as a barometer of U.S. economic growth by economists and policymakers. This indicator grew by 1.2% in the second quarter following a 1.9% increase in the first quarter. This marks the slowest growth in domestic demand since the fourth quarter of 2022. Moreover, economists expect weak economic growth in the second half of the year. Despite a series of trade agreements announced by the White House, economists stated that the actual tariff rate in the U.S. remains one of the highest levels since the 1930s and pointed out that about 60% of U.S. imports are still unaffected by the agreements. (Jin10)