The Fed keeps interest rates unchanged, while hidden waves lurk in the calm of the crypto market.

The Federal Reserve announced on Wednesday afternoon that it will keep the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 4.25%-4.50%, marking the fourth consecutive meeting where the interest rate remains stable, in line with market expectations.

Despite a decrease in uncertainty regarding the economic outlook, the Fed still indicated that this uncertainty remains at a high level. At the same time, the Fed lowered its GDP growth forecast for the U.S. in 2025 to 1.4%, but raised its inflation forecast to 3%. This reflects the Fed's ongoing dilemma between economic recovery and inflation control.

The Fed's "dot plot" indicates that two rate cuts (a total of 50 basis points) are expected in 2025, in line with the expectations from March. However, the expectation for rate cuts in 2026 has been revised down from two to one (only 25 basis points). It is noteworthy that 7 out of the 19 Fed officials believe there will be no rate cuts in 2025, indicating a divergence within the Fed regarding the future policy path.

Although the Fed's decisions have a significant impact on the global financial market, the crypto market has reacted relatively calmly. Bitcoin (BTC) remains around $104,000, Ethereum (ETH) hovers around $2,520, and XRP and Solana are also basically flat.

According to statistics from the data platform, the total market value of the crypto market slightly decreased by 2% to $3.35 trillion that day, while $224 million in leveraged liquidations occurred, with Ethereum having the largest liquidation amount, followed by Bitcoin. This indicates that the tug-of-war between bulls and bears in the market remains intense.

It is worth mentioning that the US spot Bitcoin ETF recorded a net inflow of $216 million on June 17, while the spot Ethereum ETF saw an inflow of $11 million. This indicates that institutional funds are continuously entering the crypto market, providing support for the market bottom.

Market experts believe that this "calm" reaction reflects investors' cautious attitude following the Fed's decision, as everyone is waiting for clearer macroeconomic signals.

On the day of the Fed meeting, Trump publicly criticized Fed Chairman Jerome Powell again, calling him "stupid" and predicting that the Fed would not cut interest rates that day. Trump has long criticized Powell, accusing his policies of "costing the country a lot of money." He believes that Europe has cut interest rates 10 times, while the U.S. has not done so even once, and questions Powell's political stance.

Although these political remarks have raised concerns, they do not seem to have had a direct significant impact on the crypto market, which is more focused on the economic data itself.

The CEO of a certain company pointed out that in the past week, despite the escalating tensions in the Middle East and the turbulent macro environment, cryptocurrency prices have remained almost unchanged. Bitcoin continues to stabilize within a narrow range around $105,000, with a daily volatility of less than 2.1%, and there has been no large-scale panic selling.

However, he also warned not to ignore the escalating macro risks. If geopolitical tensions worsen or begin to affect the financial system through sanctions, infrastructure disruptions, or capital controls, the crypto market will not be spared. He noted that Bitcoin's market dominance is approaching 66%, indicating that investors' risk appetite for altcoins is decreasing in the current environment.

On-chain data also provides an interesting perspective. According to data analysis, the market value of Bitcoin relative to its realized value (MVRV Ratio) is currently still below historical market peaks. The MVRV Ratio is an indicator that measures the ratio of Bitcoin's total market capitalization to the total value of all Bitcoins based on their last on-chain movement, reflecting whether investors in the entire network are overall profitable or at a loss.

Data shows that the extreme peaks of the Bitcoin MVRV Ratio have historically coincided with asset price tops. However, the current Bitcoin MVRV Ratio is 2.25, which, although the market cap is more than double the realized value, is significantly lower compared to past cyclical tops. This suggests that the market has not overheated as it has in the past, and Bitcoin still has potential upside.

A research report from an asset management company indicates that the "ancient supply" of Bitcoin (Bitcoin that has not been moved for at least ten years) is growing faster than the daily issuance of new Bitcoin. Since April 2024, an average of 566 Bitcoins have entered the "over ten years" unspent queue each day, exceeding the daily circulation of 450 new Bitcoins mined.

The "old supply" currently accounts for over 17% of all mined Bitcoin, worth about $360 billion. Although some Bitcoins may be permanently lost, analysts point out that any coin could potentially be reintroduced into circulation.

The report also mentioned the "HODL rate" (which is the old supply inflow minus the new issuance). This metric turned positive in April 2024, with an average daily increase of 116 bitcoins, further confirming that core holders are absorbing circulating bitcoins at a faster rate than miners are producing.

By 2035, it is expected that the "old supply" of circulating Bitcoin will exceed 30%. Although this scarcity does not directly guarantee a price increase (demand support is also needed), the continuous increase in Bitcoin controlled by long-term holders will tighten the amount of Bitcoin available for traders, making price discovery increasingly dependent on marginal flow.

The report concludes that Bitcoin has now differentiated itself from commodities with elastic supply. Its scarcity, combined with factors like long-term holding and lost tokens, is expected to increase over time. If future demand grows in tandem, this characteristic may reshape its value discovery logic, becoming a core advantage that distinguishes it from other assets.