Ethereum Major Signal: ICO Whale Silent for Four Years Transfers ETH to Exchange, Suggesting a Short-term Peak Has Been Reached?

In the crypto assets market, the movements of whales are often seen as an important barometer. Recently, a heavyweight piece of news from Ethereum (ETH) has sparked widespread attention in the market: According to an article earlier on the X platform by Onchain Lens, an early investor in the Ethereum ICO, after four years of silence, today (23rd) deposited 800 ETH ( worth about 3 million USD ) into the Kraken exchange. This fund had not seen large-scale movement for four years, and now this transfer to the exchange raises speculation in the market: does this imply that the short-term peak for ETH has been reached, and is this whale preparing to take profits?

ICO Whale Movements: Signals for Profit Taking?

Onchain Lens further supplemented that the address initially acquired 8,950 ETH, which was worth only $2,783 at the time. To date, the address still holds 1,780 ETH ( worth about $6.66 million ), with a total profit of up to $13.36 million and a return rate of 4,803%. Such astonishing profits, coupled with the sudden transfer of funds to the exchange after four years of dormancy, indeed easily lead the market to associate it with potential sell-off behavior.

In the Crypto Assets market, transferring a large amount of assets from a cold wallet or personal wallet to an exchange is often interpreted as a signal of preparation for sale. This is especially true for whales who have held their assets long-term and made substantial profits; any large-scale movement from them can impact market sentiment.

(Source: Nansen)

ETF Frenzy: Continuous Capital Inflow, Strong Demand

Although the movements of ICO Whales have raised concerns about short-term peaks, the overall market fundamentals of Ethereum (ETH) remain strong. According to Sosovalue data, the US spot Ethereum ETF continues to attract capital (with positive inflows for twelve consecutive days), and the net inflow over the past two months has exceeded 5 billion USD. Additionally, several listed companies have increased their ETH reserves, creating strong buying support.

Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan stated, "In the short term, the prices of everything are determined by supply and demand, and currently, the demand for ETH exceeds the supply." Since mid-May, U.S. spot Ethereum ETFs and related reserve companies have accumulated over 2.83 million ETH, which is 32 times the newly issued supply during the same period. Hougan estimates that over the next year, these institutions' demand for ETH could reach $20 billion, far exceeding the newly issued supply by 7 times.

This shows that despite ETH rising more than 160% in the past three months, the market still believes there is room for further upward movement. The continuous influx of institutional funds provides strong support for Ethereum and keeps the market optimistic about its long-term trend.

Technical Observation: Short-term Pullback Risk Remains

As for the technical aspects, the current relative strength index (RSI) of the ETH daily chart has reached the overbought zone at 85, which is usually seen as a signal that the price may face a correction. Analysts remind that if it falls below the moving average and retreats from the overbought zone, ETH may test the support area at 3,470 USD, with further declines focusing on 3,200 USD. However, if it maintains an upward trend, the next target will be at 4,100 USD.

In the past two years, Ethereum has lagged behind Bitcoin in long-term performance. Now, with ETF funds and treasury companies joining forces, the demand for ETH continues to rise. However, investors still need to be cautious about short-term correction risks. The fund transfers of Whales may be a warning signal that the market needs to undergo a technical adjustment after a strong surge.

The capital transfer of Ethereum ICO Whales undoubtedly brings a sense of tension to the market, sparking speculation about short-term peaks. However, from a more macro perspective, the continuous capital inflow into the US spot Ethereum ETF and the strong institutional demand for ETH provide solid fundamental support for Ethereum. Although there may be risks of technical pullbacks in the short term, in the long run, Ethereum's position in the Crypto Assets market remains strong. Investors should consider the Whale movements, market fundamentals, and technical indicators comprehensively to make informed investment decisions.