Over 43% chance of U.S. government shutdown in 2025: Polymarket

Crypto traders are pricing in political risk, giving a 43% chance of a U.S. government shutdown before the end of 2025, according to blockchain prediction platform Polymarket.

Polymarket shows a 43% probability of a shutdown, up 18% in the past 24 hours, with total trading volume surpassing $1.22 million.

Traders can buy “Yes” shares at $32 or “No” shares at $42, with pricing reflecting the likelihood of each outcome.

How this prediction market works

The market will resolve to “Yes” if the U.S. Office of Personnel Management (OPM) officially announces a government shutdown caused by a lapse in appropriations before December 31, 2025, at 11:59 p.m.

Partial shutdowns count, but office closures for holidays or weather events do not qualify. The resolution source will be OPM’s official government status website.

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Election bets made Polymarket a power player

Polymarket turned into a heavyweight in the 2024 U.S. presidential election, with more than $3.2 billion traded in election-related bets — accurately forecasting Donald Trump’s comeback.

Polymarket saw a staggering $3.2 billion in total trading volume tied to the presidential race — a record for any political prediction market On its "Presidential Election Winner 2024" market alone, the platform saw $3.686 billion in volume, with $1.53 billion traded on Trump and $1.04 billion on Harris.

Why crypto traders are betting on shutdowns

Polymarket lets users stake stablecoins on political and economic events. Because traders put real money on the line, markets like these often move faster than traditional polling.

Shutdown risk is a familiar concern in Washington: since 1976, the U.S. has faced 21 funding gaps. The blockchain-based odds provide a near real-time measure of investor sentiment around political dysfunction.

Prediction markets have exploded in popularity, turning into an alternative polling tool for everything from elections to sports to macroeconomic events.

This government shutdown contract is among the most actively traded political markets, and its volatility shows how quickly sentiment can shift as budget fights heat up in Congress.

For crypto traders, it’s both a speculative opportunity and a barometer of U.S. politics — with odds currently near a coin-flip that Washington could grind to a halt in 2025.

FAQs about Polymarket’s shutdown bet

Q**: What is the current chance of a U.S. government shutdown in 2025?**
A: On Polymarket, the probability is 43%, with “Yes” shares trading at 44¢.

Story ContinuesQ: How much has been bet on this shutdown market?
A: Trading volume has exceeded $1.22 million.

Q: Who decides if the shutdown happens?
A: The market resolves based on official announcements from the U.S. Office of Personnel Management (OPM).

Q: Do partial shutdowns count?
A: Yes, partial shutdowns due to appropriations lapses count. Weather or holiday closures do not.

Q: Why is Polymarket important?
A: Polymarket is a blockchain prediction platform where traders use crypto to bet on world events, making it a faster and often more accurate alternative to traditional polling.

This story was originally reported by TheStreet on Aug 31, 2025, where it first appeared in the MARKETS section. Add TheStreet as a Preferred Source by clicking here.

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