XRP faces challenges in September, but the NIGHT Airdrop's favourable information may trigger a reversal; whether it can hold above $2.7 is crucial | XRP price prediction

As the bearish trend continues into August, the price of XRP faces severe challenges at the beginning of September, with its market structure on the daily chart precariously positioned, at risk of breaking below the key support level of $2.74. Despite the short-term sentiment leaning towards bearishness, XRP remains in a long-term high-level consolidation stage, making its future trend a point of interest. Especially under the expectation that Bitcoin may fall towards $100,000 this month, XRP's rebound task is daunting. However, the Midnight (NIGHT) project's airdrop has gone live, bringing exclusive benefits to XRP holders, and whether this potential catalyst can help XRP maintain its support level and reverse the downward trend has become a focal point in the market.

XRP Price Technical Analysis: Market Structure Faces Bearish Risks

September could be a month full of volatility for XRP. Following the bearish trend in August, the XRP price is facing severe challenges, with the market structure on its daily chart precariously positioned. If XRP fails to hold the $2.74 low and closes below it, this will be an early signal of a bearish market structure shift, indicating that the upcoming price trend may lean towards the downside.

According to data from Coinalyze, the short-term sentiment in the speculative market is sluggish. Although the Funding Rate is positive, the Open Interest has declined alongside prices over the weekend, further confirming the bearish sentiment in the short term.

Despite the bearish short-term outlook, XRP is still consolidating near its long-term highs. However, historical data shows that since 2017, XRP has only achieved significant gains of over 15% in September on two occasions, which presents numerous challenges for XRP bulls this month. Given that Bitcoin (BTC) may also fall towards 100,000 this month, the path for XRP's rebound could be particularly difficult.

Bearish Technical Indicators and Liquidity Risks

The daily chart clearly reveals the predicament faced by XRP bulls. Over the past month, XRP's trading volume has continued to shrink, and the On-Balance Volume (OBV) is also on a downward trend, indicating that selling pressure has dominated in recent weeks. Additionally, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has failed to remain above the neutral level of 50, further confirming the bearish sentiment. As mentioned earlier, the 2.74 USD low point in early August is an important support level for XRP.

One possible scenario is that XRP may fall below these lows to clear liquidity and then rebound higher. However, for this scenario to materialize, there must be strong buying pressure in the coming days or weeks. Bitcoin's bullish performance can also boost the market sentiment for XRP. However, based on the current evidence, XRP is more likely to fall towards 2.4 USD in September rather than rebound to 5 USD. The market generally expects that the next wave of increase for XRP may not occur until the fourth quarter of 2025.

Midnight (NIGHT) Airdrop goes live, will it bring a turnaround?

Despite the weak market sentiment, the launch of the Midnight (NIGHT) Airdrop brings potential benefits for XRP. As a reward for long-term holders, XRP holders will exclusively receive 5% of the total supply of NIGHT tokens as an airdrop. According to the snapshot in June, XRP holders can claim up to 1.2 billion free NIGHT tokens. At the Consensus Conference in 2025, Cardano founder Charles Hoskinson confirmed that XRP holders will be included in the NIGHT airdrop, aimed at promoting collaboration between ecosystems.

Eligible users need to claim their NIGHT tokens before the end of the 60-day "Glacier" phase. Those who miss this window can make a second claim during the subsequent "Scavenger Mine" phase. To qualify for the claim, users must have at least $100 worth of XRP holdings at the time of the snapshot. NIGHT tokens will grant holders governance rights and are intended to promote cross-chain collaboration among major blockchains.

Price Prediction: $2.70 is the Decisive Line

Despite the favorable Airdrop, XRP's price movement is still affected by the weak market environment. In the past seven days, the price of XRP has fallen by 6.93%, retreating from the August high of $3.38. Nevertheless, XRP has achieved an astonishing increase of 392.22% so far in 2025, soaring from $0.4936 to $3.65, making it the best performer among the top ten cryptocurrencies.

(Source: TradingView)

Currently, XRP is trading around 2.74 USD. Analysts believe it must hold the 2.70 USD support level to break through the 2.90 USD direct resistance level. Technical analysis indicates that if the price decisively falls below 2.70 USD, the next key support level will be exposed around 2.33 USD, signaling deeper downside risk. Conversely, if buyers can successfully hold 2.70 USD, there is a possibility of rebounding to the 3.03 USD resistance level and further challenging 3.16 USD and 3.31 USD as momentum strengthens.

Currently, the RSI of XRP is close to 33, nearing oversold conditions, which indicates that although selling pressure remains strong, it may soon be exhausted. If buyers can defend 2.70 dollars, the chances of a rebound to the 3.03 dollar resistance level will increase. However, if bears push the price below this level, the probability of a rapid fall to 2.33 dollars will significantly increase.

Conclusion

Overall, XRP is facing dual challenges from the macro market environment and its own technical indicators in September. Market sentiment looks bearish in the short term, and prices may continue to test the lows after breaking key support levels. However, fundamentals such as the Midnight (NIGHT) Airdrop provide confidence for XRP's long-term holders and may serve as a catalyst for future price rebounds. The key for the market is whether $2.70 can hold, which is not only a technical test but also a critical line of defense in the tug-of-war between bulls and bears. Investors should closely monitor this level, as well as the impact of the macro economy and Bitcoin trends, to determine whether XRP will continue to decline this month or be able to reverse its fortunes under the positive influence of the Airdrop.