Solana Price Prediction: A Rebound at Risk of Profit-Taking

While Solana (SOL) recently reclaimed the $200 price level, key on-chain metrics suggest that its momentum may be at risk. A combination of a high number of holders in profit and recent selling from long-term investors indicates that a correction fueled by profit-taking could be on the horizon. This article examines the key signals that point to a potential price reversal.

💰 The Profit-Taking Threat: Long-Term Holders Are in the Green

A major headwind for Solana is the high level of unrealized profit among its long-term holders. The Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) metric for this group reached a six-month high, a level that has historically preceded sharp price corrections. When this metric spikes, it signals that a large portion of the supply is in a profitable position, increasing the likelihood of a mass sell-off as investors lock in their gains. Historical data confirms this trend, with a similar NUPL spike in March leading to a 41% price drop and a July spike resulting in a 23% correction.

🕰️ Older Coins on the Move: The "Coin Days Destroyed" Signal

Adding to the bearish pressure, the "Coin Days Destroyed" (CDD) metric has shown recent spikes. CDD tracks the movement of older coins and provides insight into the activity of long-term holders. A spike in this metric suggests that these investors are selling their tokens, which can create significant downward pressure. The most recent CDD spike, which occurred when Solana was trading near $203, is a strong signal that long-term holders are selling into this price strength, potentially capping any further upward movement.

📉 Key Levels to Watch

For Solana to sustain its momentum, it must hold and achieve a daily close above the $201 price level. A failure to do so, especially if the price falls below $196 or $191, would signal a bearish momentum shift. A break below the critical $175 support would be a major confirmation of a deeper correction. The combination of an elevated NUPL and recent CDD spikes suggests that without a fresh wave of buying, these support levels may be at risk.

📌 Conclusion

The recent rebound in Solana's price above $200 is facing a significant threat from profit-taking by long-term holders. The on-chain metrics paint a cautious picture, indicating that the current price level may be unsustainable without stronger support. While Solana's long-term fundamentals remain strong, investors should be prepared for a period of potential volatility and correction in the short term.

🔐 Disclaimer

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Cryptocurrency investments carry a high level of risk and volatility. Always conduct your own research (DYOR) and consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decisions.