Analysis of the Crypto Assets Market in May 2025

1. Macroeconomic Overview

In May 2025, the U.S. economy is at a turning point. Inflation continues to decline, the labor market remains resilient, monetary policy enters a wait-and-see phase, trade policies bring uncertainty, and fiscal policy influences market expectations through measures similar to quantitative easing. Against this backdrop, the crypto market demonstrates strong resilience, and the structure of global risk assets may face a new round of revaluation.

inflation trend

In April, the seasonally unadjusted CPI annual rate fell to 2.3%, the lowest in nearly four years, indicating that price pressures continue to ease. At the same time, the U.S. Treasury initiated a $40 billion Treasury bond buyback operation, seen as a "quasi-QE" measure aimed at releasing liquidity and refinancing at low interest rates, becoming an important factor supporting the prices of risk assets.

Employment Market

In April 2025, non-farm employment increased by 177,000, exceeding market expectations and reflecting the resilience of the labor market. This provides a basis for the Federal Reserve to maintain a wait-and-see policy, while also easing market concerns about a recession, but it also reduces the likelihood of multiple unexpected rate cuts within the year.

monetary policy

The Federal Reserve stated that it will reassess the current monetary policy framework and may abandon the "average inflation targeting" mechanism. In the future, it may extend the period of high interest rates and even increase the holding of medium- and long-term government bonds through balance sheet expansion to control the rise in long-term rates. The policy tone will be more flexible, and there is no urgency for preventive interest rate cuts in the short term.

Trade Policy and Global Economy

The announcement in early May regarding the imposition of tariffs on EU goods has triggered market fluctuations. China's implementation of a "cut in reserve requirement ratio + interest rate cut" combination policy has released a large amount of liquidity and lowered the policy interest rate, which is seen as the start of a new round of easing cycle, boosting market expectations for an improvement in China-U.S. relations.

2. Crypto Market Overview

Trading Volume Analysis

As of May 27, the market's average daily trading volume was $117.4 billion, an increase of 15.8% compared to the previous period, indicating a continued recovery in capital activity. In early and late May, trading volume surged significantly, with daily trading volume once breaking through $180 billion, coinciding with Bitcoin's price surpassing key levels.

Market Cap Change

As of May 27, the total market value of Crypto Assets has risen to $3.56 trillion, an increase of 17.0% compared to last month. Among them, Bitcoin's market share is 62.6%, and Ethereum's market share is 9.6%, with the latter showing a 29.7% increase compared to the previous period, indicating a stronger preference for fund allocation to Ethereum.

emerging popular coin

Among the popular tokens launched in May, venture capital-backed projects dominate, including Layer 2 projects SOPH, B2, and others. Additionally, USD1-related projects such as B, Lista, and Staketone have also received widespread attention.

3. On-chain Data Analysis

ETF Fund Flow

In May, the net inflow for Bitcoin ETFs was approximately $5.77 billion, while the net inflow for Ethereum ETFs was about $317 million. The price of Bitcoin rose from $94,212 at the beginning of the month to $108,969, an increase of about 13.5%; Ethereum rose from $1,794 to $2,635, an increase of 31.9%.

Stablecoin Market

In May, the total circulation of stablecoins increased by approximately $7.28 billion, mainly driven by the growth of USDT, USDE, and DAI.

4. Main Crypto Assets Price Analysis

Bitcoin ( BTC )

The price of Bitcoin has broken through its historical high to $111,959. Bulls are striving to maintain the price above $109,588, showing a clear upward trend. If it breaks through $111,980, it may continue to rise to $130,000. Key support levels below are $104,886 and $100,000.

Ethereum ( ETH )

Ethereum rebounded from $2,425 on May 25, and bulls will try to break through the $2,738 resistance level. If successful, it could rise to $3,000. The important support levels below are $2,323 and $2,111.

Solana ( SOL )

Solana found support at $169, and the bulls will attempt to break through the $188 resistance level again. If successful, it could rise to $210 or even $220. The key support level below is $151.

5. Hot Topics

USD1 ecosystem

The market capitalization of the USD1 stablecoin has surpassed $2.1 billion, making it the seventh largest stablecoin. Its core advantage lies in being issued under the leadership of the Trump family, making it the first stablecoin project endorsed by a president. The prices of multiple USD1 partnership projects such as Buildon, Lista DAO, and others have surged significantly.

The rise of the Believe platform

The core token of the Believe platform, Launchcoin, surged significantly this month, with its market value approaching $310 million at one point. The platform focuses on the concept of "social assetization," allowing users to automatically trigger token issuance by posting on the X platform. However, the excessive support for the token $YAPPER has led to a crash, sparking controversy and a subsequent decline in ecological enthusiasm.

6. Future Outlook

Stablecoin Bill Progress

The "GENIUS Act" has entered the amendment process through a debate motion. The bill covers various aspects including issuance qualifications, reserve requirements, and compliance obligations, aiming to comprehensively strengthen the international dominance of the digital dollar. It is expected that stablecoin projects with strong compliance will gain greater market recognition.

Ethereum ETF pledge approval

The US SEC has delayed its decision on the Ethereum Trust ETF, with a final deadline at the end of October. Hong Kong has approved Ethereum ETF staking, and the market expects US regulators to reach a framework on the relevant mechanisms soon. Once approved, it could drive a new wave of market enthusiasm for Ethereum and related assets such as Lido, Eigen, etc.