Crypto Market Trends and Outlook Analysis

Market Observation

The tax cut bill pushed by Trump has stalled in the Senate, creating divisions within the Republican Party. Trump continues to pressure the Federal Reserve, calling for significant interest rate cuts and hinting at a possible early replacement of the Fed chair. These actions have raised concerns among economists about the status of the dollar, with most experts predicting that U.S. Treasury yields will surpass 5% next year. Despite the risks, the U.S. stock market continues to hit new highs.

Against the backdrop of the integration of traditional finance and blockchain, tokenized stocks have become a new trend. Several platforms are laying out related services, but insufficient liquidity and regulatory gaps remain challenges. Stablecoins and tokenized stocks are attracting institutional funds, driving the crypto market towards a transformation into practical value.

Bitcoin broke through $108,500 over the weekend, approaching its historical weekly closing high. Analysts believe that the market is focused on whether Bitcoin can break through and stabilize at $109,000. Some opinions suggest that Bitcoin may reach a bull market peak in September-October 2025, currently being in the late stage of the bull market.

Ethereum outperformed Bitcoin, with a weekly closing price surpassing $2500. On-chain data shows a bullish trend, and some traders expect the ETH price may reach $3000 in the near future. A certain DEX ecosystem is also becoming active, with its tokens rising by 17.4%.

In the Meme coin sector, Moonshot launched a creation tool, leading to the launch of several new Meme coins. Among them, several tokens have reached a market capitalization in the millions of dollars. Some independent projects like $MORI and $USELESS have also performed well, with the latter recently experiencing a surge of over 1700%.

Key Data

• Bitcoin: $108,379 ( Year-to-date +15.67% )
• Ethereum: $2,500.45 ( Year-to-date -25.2% )
• Fear and greed index: 52( neutral )
• Market share: BTC 64.7%, ETH 9.1%
• 24-hour liquidations: Total of $201 million, with BTC accounting for $63.3483 million

ETF Fund Flows

• Bitcoin ETF: +$501 million ( net inflow for 14 consecutive days )
• Ethereum ETF: +$7,744,720

Today's Outlook

• A certain trading platform wallet will launch NodeOps (NODE)
• Zama launched the testnet
• Vitalik participated in a discussion held by a certain platform in Cannes.
• The U.S. Senate votes on the Beautiful Act
• Heads of major central banks hold a panel discussion
• Multiple project token unlocks, including OP, KMNO, ACX, and SUI, etc.

Hot News

• Data shows that SUI and other tokens will face a large unlocking.
• The probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged in July is 81.9%.
• Report: 27% of South Koreans aged 20-50 hold cryptocurrency
• The RWA market size increased by 85% year-on-year to $24 billion
• The U.S. Senate passed a procedural motion to advance the "Too Big to Fail" bill.
• BlackRock has increased its Bitcoin holdings for 9 consecutive weeks, totaling approximately 107,139 coins.
• American experts suggest that the proportion of cryptocurrency in the investment portfolio can be increased to 10-40%.