Crypto Assets Market Weekly Report: BTC Continues Rebound Trend, Dollar Index Falls to Three-Year Low

This week, the price of Bitcoin (BTC) achieved a consecutive second week of increase, opening at $83,733.07 and closing at $85,177.34, with a weekly increase of 1.72% and a fluctuation of 4.06%. Nevertheless, there is insufficient upward momentum in the market, and trading volume has noticeably shrunk. The price of BTC has been running outside the descending channel for two consecutive weeks and is testing the important technical indicator of the 200-day moving average.

In terms of the macroeconomy, the trade policies promoted by the U.S. government have entered the second phase of negotiations, but the preliminary negotiation results with Japan were below expectations. This has put the U.S. government in a dilemma, as the main negotiating partners are adopting a tough stance, and secondary targets are also gradually shifting towards a hardline position. Countries seem to be adopting a strategy of trading time for space, while the U.S. faces unprecedented pressure as it initiates a tariff war globally.

Federal Reserve Chairman Powell delivered a speech this Wednesday, stating that before considering adjustments to policy positions, the Federal Reserve has the capacity to wait for clearer signals. The Federal Reserve's choice to adopt a strategy of maintaining the status quo has subjected the stock market, bond market, and currency market to triple pressure.

In terms of policy, macro finance, and economic data, consumer confidence remains low, and the business community is confused about production plans. Wall Street continues to sell off long positions and reduce trading without waiting for government or Federal Reserve assistance. Major stock indices have all seen declines this week, with trading volume significantly reduced.

The bond market also performed poorly, with the yields on 2-year and 10-year government bonds both declining, but still remaining at high levels. Long-term government bonds face significant risks, as last week's sharp increase of 11.25% indicates that liquidity has become tight amid the sell-off.

The US Dollar Index has fallen for the fourth consecutive week, dropping to 99.171% this week. Funds are flowing from the US to Europe, which is the result of the decline in the US Dollar Index and the stock market, while the bond market has failed to absorb the outflow of funds.

In the crypto assets market, on-chain data for BTC shows that selling pressure continues to weaken. The on-chain selling scale for the entire week has dropped to 107,810.75 coins, with short-term holders accounting for 103,713.35 coins and long-term holders for 4,097.4 coins. The net outflow of BTC from exchanges reached 19,467.31 coins. The long-term holder group has net increased their holdings by nearly 100,000 coins this week, continuing to serve as a stabilizer for the market.

In terms of capital flow, stablecoin channels achieved the highest weekly inflow scale since January this year, exceeding 950 million USD. BTC-related ETFs also saw a net inflow of over 10 million USD. BTC's recent performance continues to outperform the Nasdaq index.

According to a certain indicator, BTC is currently in a rising continuation phase.

Overall, despite the uncertainty in the macroeconomic environment, the BTC market remains relatively resilient, but the upward momentum is limited. Investors should continue to pay attention to the direction of global economic policies and their potential impact on the Crypto Assets market.