On September 5th, the U.S. non-farm payroll data for August will be released tonight. Before that, according to CME's "Fed Watch" data, the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in September is 99.3%, while the probability of keeping the interest rate unchanged is 0.7%. In contrast, on Polymarket, the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is relatively conservative, currently at 88%. Additionally, derivative contracts betting on the Fed's policy direction indicate that by the end of next year, the Fed will have cumulatively cut rates five times (each by 25 basis points), lowering the federal funds rate from the current range of 4.25%-4.5% to around 3%.
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Before the US Non-farm Payrolls (NFP), the probability of a Fed interest rate cut on CME has risen to 99.3%.
On September 5th, the U.S. non-farm payroll data for August will be released tonight. Before that, according to CME's "Fed Watch" data, the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in September is 99.3%, while the probability of keeping the interest rate unchanged is 0.7%. In contrast, on Polymarket, the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is relatively conservative, currently at 88%. Additionally, derivative contracts betting on the Fed's policy direction indicate that by the end of next year, the Fed will have cumulatively cut rates five times (each by 25 basis points), lowering the federal funds rate from the current range of 4.25%-4.5% to around 3%.