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Why am I bringing up this previous trade? It's to summarize the trading strategy from June 24th. This time I'm planning to do a 4-hour short order. The previous decline was a 5-wave pattern, and after it ended, it formed a V shape. Starting from 110623, it rebounded to 105800 Fibonacci (0.682), so I shorted 0.5 times. Let's see if we can catch a pullback from a secondary fluctuation. In reality, the result did not go as expected, so I had to stop loss. Since the starting point was short-term, holding the position for too long lost its advantage, so it didn't decline as I imagined, which actually made it quite passive.
a. In the case of a fall with three waves, there is actually still an expected adjustment of the final five waves that has not completed, and the market has expectations of a future decline.
b. In the case of a fall with five waves, it has basically completed, especially the equal amplitude of 1 and 5 is more verifiable. The market has expectations of future adjustments, which weakens the decline.
c. The W pattern has a certain degree of consumption of chips, and after the breakout, the probability of a pullback is higher.
d. The V pattern has a stronger trend, with no excessive consumption of chips, which is beneficial for the breakout but not for the pullback.
These views are my personal summary for reference only; trading is about continuous summarization and optimization, with both right and wrong, each taking what they need.