SAHARA Holds at $0.083 – Breakout or Breakdown Next?

SAHARA holds at $0.083 – breakout or breakdown next? Will it stay above the EMA-50 or head for a deeper correction toward $0.078? RSI is declining from peak levels, volume is decreasing, and the EMAs are beginning to converge. Let’s analyze whether the bullish structure will hold or the market will shift its phase.

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Overall SAHARA Price Structure

SAHARA dropped rather dramatically from its peaks of $0.108 at the end of June to $0.074 on July 25 However, it showed a couple of reversal attempts, the most recent peak of which was $0.088, accompanied by a consistent breakout through all significant EMA levels.

However, right now we are observing a correction, and buyers have taken over near the $0.080 zone, confirming the significance of this area as a potential lower boundary of the ascending channel A return above $0.08346 has not yet been confirmed by a close: the last three candles show a weak attempt at recovery with short bodies and no impulsive continuation.

It is important that the structure remains in a corrective phase within an uptrend. A transition to a breakdown phase is only possible if $0.08038 is lost.

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SAHARA EMA and RSI

• EMA-20 ($0.08230). Located below the current price, the slope is positive but noticeably slowing down. The last H1 candle is barely holding above this level, and a break downward with a close below EMA-20 and continued volume pressure may serve as the first signal of a transition into a bearish phase within the range. For now, it acts as a short-term dynamic support level, but the stability of its position is questionable.
• EMA-50 ($0.08310). The key level of the current phase – price is testing it from below but not securing a close above. The slope is still upward, but already close to horizontal. This is a critical zone: staying below increases the likelihood of a pullback to EMA-100. A breakout upward with volume is a mandatory condition to confirm a continuation of growth.
• EMA-100 ($0.08197). Positioned below the market. The slope has turned positive – for the first time in the last 24 hours. This indicates accumulated momentum but also creates a point of attraction in the event that EMA-50 fails. Thus, the area between EMA-100 and Fibo 0.5 ($0.08166) becomes a cluster of buyer interest.
• EMA-200 ($0.08130) The long-term direction remains neutral EMA-200 is flat, not giving a directional signal, but may become a trend defense line in the event of a deep correction A break of this level with volume would indicate the end of the current growth phase.

RSI

53.05. After rising above 66, during the pullback, the price was accompanied by a drop in RSI, but without falling into the weakness zone (<50). The trajectory slope is downward, which indicates a lack of buyer initiative. However, RSI remains in the 50–55 range, which corresponds to consolidation zones A breakout above 60 with rising volume may become a signal for a new impulse Conversely, a decline in RSI below 50 without an update of local lows would confirm weakness in support.

SAHARA Fibonacci Key Zones

• 0.236 ($0.08457). The first resistance zone after the pullback, which was briefly broken on the July 4 candles, but a close did not occur In the event of another touch with a strong candle and RSI > 60, it may become confirmation of recovery.
• 0.382 ($0.08346). The key level of the current consolidation, especially considering that it coincides with EMA-50. Acts as a dynamic and horizontal decision zone. A confirmed breakout upward is critical for the bullish scenario.
• 0.5 ($0.08166). Deep correction zone. Previously acted as support during testing, but a return here – especially combined with no bounce – may provoke a structural breakdown.
• 0.618 ($0.08038). The lower boundary of the acceptable correction. A loss of this level is a signal of a phase reversal, especially if RSI < 50 and candles lose volume.
• 0.786 ($0.07838). The critical level where the ascending HH/HL structure completely loses relevance A loss of this level cancels the entire bullish scenario.

Market Sentiment

Broadly speaking, the sentiment is bearish. But locally, it is neutral-corrective with a mix of growth potential and risk of phase breakdown The EMA configuration is narrowing, RSI is falling, volume is decreasing – all this indicates a loss of momentum However, the HH/HL structure is still intact, and key levels have not yet been broken Consolidation near 0.382 and EMA-50 means the market is awaiting triggers – either a return to impulse or confirmation of breakdown.

Potential Bullish Scenario

Confirmation

• H1 closed above $0.08457 (Fibo 0.236)
• RSI > 60 and upward trajectory
• Volume above average (≥ 250K)
• EMA-20 crosses EMA-50 upward

Target

• Retest of $0.0867 (local resistance)
• If broken – return to $0.08837
• Extension of possible impulse to $0.0900

Scenario cancellation

• Close below $0.08166 (Fibo 0.5 + EMA-100)
• RSI < 50
• Formation of a lower high at $0.084 with rejection of growth

Potential Bearish Scenario

Confirmation

• H1 closes below $0.08166
• RSI < 48
• Increase in volume on falling candles (> 300K)
• Rejection at $0.0835 and formation of a lower-high

Target

• Test of the $0.08038 zone (Fibo 0.618)
• If broken – move to the $0.07838–$0.0770 cluster
• Potential phase shift to bearish

Scenario cancellation

• Quick return above $0.0834
• RSI > 55
• EMA-20 crosses EMA-50 upward again

Potential Entry

• Between $0.0820 and $0.0834 – the area between EMA-20 and Fibo 0.382.
• Conditions: RSI ≥ 55, candle with confirming volume and body above $0.0834.

Potential Stop

• Below $0.0813 (EMA-200) or below Fibo 0.618 ($0.08038).
• Activation upon RSI < 50 and bearish engulfing candle structure.

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What to Watch in the Coming Hours

If in the coming hours SAHARA secures a close above $0.0845 with RSI > 60, this may potentially open the path to a retest of $0.088 Otherwise, a loss of $0.0816 and a close below EMA-100 significantly increases the likelihood of a breakdown and return to $0.078.

Keep an eye on:

• RSI behavior around 50–55
• Candle reactions at EMA-50 and 0.382 Fibo
• Volume on breakouts of key zones