BTC rose by 10% this week, with nearly 7 billion dollars flowing into the crypto market.

This week, the price of BTC rose from $85,177 to $93,780, an increase of 10.10%, with a fluctuation of 12.73%, achieving a consecutive three-week rise. After a strong breakthrough of the 120-day moving average on Monday, it maintained above the average for the entire week, showing a strong willingness to go long.

The U.S. government is currently engaged in trade negotiations with multiple countries. The White House has been frequently releasing positive signals, but the attitudes of other negotiating parties remain ambiguous, indicating that the outcome of the negotiations is still uncertain. Concerns about the independence of the Federal Reserve have eased, and the stock market, bond market, and currency market have all shown signs of stabilization and rebound.

Recent remarks by Federal Reserve officials have released some positive signals. Cleveland Fed President Mester stated that the Federal Reserve has the ability to act quickly in response to economic changes. Fed Governor Waller also pointed out that if the labor market deteriorates significantly, it could prompt the Fed to accelerate the pace of interest rate cuts.

The performance of the global market in the past few weeks has fully reflected the huge impact of trade friction on the world economy. The compromise measures taken by the U.S. government and the Federal Reserve to address the turbulence in the financial markets corroborate the judgment that "politics, economy, and markets will operate along rational paths in the medium to long term."

However, the market rebound is mainly due to the temporary alleviation of concerns about the potential economic recession caused by trade frictions. The future market trend will depend on whether the trade disputes can be resolved in a timely manner and whether the U.S. economy is truly entering a recession. Therefore, the disclosure of U.S. stock first-quarter financial reports is particularly important.

The latest Beige Book released by the Federal Reserve shows that 8 out of 12 Federal Reserve districts reported that economic activity "remained essentially unchanged," indicating a slowdown in overall economic growth. Businesses are reacting strongly to tariff policies, with inflation expectations rising to 3.5% in several regions by 2025, and manufacturing activity further contracting. Consumer spending is growing moderately, but high prices and tariff expectations are beginning to weaken consumer confidence. Employment levels are generally stable, but hiring activity has weakened, and layoffs have increased in some areas. Wage growth has slowed but remains above pre-pandemic levels.

As the market panic eases, the US dollar index stabilizes at 99.613. The yields on 2-year and 10-year government bonds have fallen to 3.756% and 4.245%, respectively. The stock market performed strongly, with the Nasdaq, S&P 500, and Dow Jones indices rising by 6.73%, 4.59%, and 2.48% over the week.

This week, the crypto market saw a significant increase in capital inflow, with nearly $7 billion flowing in through stablecoin and ETF channels. There were net inflows recorded on 6 out of 7 trading days, reflecting active entry of mid- to long-term funds. However, as the price of Bitcoin approaches $95,000, along with ongoing trade friction and concerns about economic recession, short-term market volatility is inevitable.

On-chain data shows that the selling scale has increased this week, mainly from short-term holders. A total of 197,040 BTC were sold, with short-term holders selling 190,568 BTC and long-term holders selling 6,471 BTC. There was a net outflow of 62,696 BTC from exchanges, marking the largest single-week net outflow in recent times, indicating a strong enthusiasm for market accumulation. Long-term holders increased their holdings by over 120,000 BTC this week, and the "shark" group holding 100-1,000 BTC also increased their holdings by nearly 30,000 BTC.

According to the EMC BTC Cycle Metrics indicator of eMerge Engine, the current value is 0.50, indicating that the market is in a rise continuation phase.