A huge profit exit in a day, has the distribution phase started? On-chain analysis, topping at 130,000?

Yesterday, there wasn't any major news in the macroeconomic sphere.. Basically, a few cryptocurrency-related bills were officially signed into law.. Essentially, the positive effects have been realized, and there isn't much more room for speculation..
This weekend seems relatively calm so far, but today we can focus on on-chain analysis..

The day before yesterday, glassnode published an on-chain analysis.. I won't do a full analysis, but let me briefly mention some key points worth noting:

1 When this wave came up, there was a very large amount of entry chips between 93k–97k and 104k–110k.. (In total, there should be over 4 million large coins, which accounts for how much of the circulating supply?)
This future will become a very strong support.. Those who missed the opportunity to get on the spot this time and got on at 120,000 for a swing will consider getting on when it returns to these two positions..

2 After 12W, there are no short-term trapped positions, all are profitable positions. At this time, the behavior of short-term traders is crucial for price movement. This chart is the key (also the only chart that I think is key).

The yellow line represents the price reaching a level that is one standard deviation above the cost of short-term holders. At this price level, many short-term traders choose to take profits. From the historical chart since 2023, it can be seen that the yellow line has been consistently suppressing the price. This price corresponding to the yellow line is 120,000.
(This can be considered a historical psychological statistical model, where when short-term investors achieve this level of profit, many will choose to cash out. This leads to price suppression.)
So this time, after rushing to 120,000 and facing resistance, it can also be seen as a representation of this model.

The real overheating madness occurs when the price reaches twice the standard deviation above the cost level of short-term traders, which is represented by the red line in the chart. From 2023 to now, it has only briefly touched this red line during March to April 2023. At that time, the price quickly peaked, retraced, and consolidated.

The price corresponding to this 2 standard deviation red line is currently around 136,000.

So the current conclusion from Glassnode is that 120K is a short-term resistance feedback. Moving forward, we need to see the strength of the buying pressure. If the buying pressure remains strong, the next resistance point will be around 130K (considering that previously there was no contact with the red line before being suppressed, combined with the psychological barrier of 130K).
However, if the buying pressure around the yellow line position of 120,000 is insufficient right now, then 120,000 may again be a scenario suppressed by the yellow line.

In simple terms, if the buying pressure is sufficient, it can push to 130,000. If the buying pressure is insufficient, it will basically stay around 120,000 in the short term.

3 The remaining indicators will not be detailed... The general conclusion is that short-term traders have started to take profits, which has historically been a sign that a top is beginning to form... However, before the top is truly formed, if buying pressure is strong, it cannot be ruled out that there is further upward momentum... If it continues, based on various indicators, the resistance level is approximately at 130,000... (Psychological pressure at round numbers, profit-taking pressure from short-term traders, historical statistics, etc.)

The analysis by glassnode was published on Wednesday, and it does not include the circumstances from yesterday and the day before.. Since the day before yesterday, there have been more developments in on-chain conditions, and on-chain analysts have made more progress..

1 Last Thursday, a profit of 4.3 billion USD was realized in a single day.. (This means that so many people chose to sell here, turning unrealized gains into realized profits of 4.3 billion.) This has already surpassed the peak of the bull run when Old Trump was elected in November. During November to December, the maximum single-day profit was only 3.5 billion..

This indicator shows that the on-chain profit-taking distribution phase has begun.. However, it is also important to note that historically, the start of the distribution phase does not indicate a peak; in the past, several rounds of peaks have occurred before reaching a true top.

2 The data of giant whale transfers to exchanges recently peaked at 12,000 Bitcoins in a single day.. This is also the recent high peak (indicating that whales are transferring to exchanges to sell).
This is also an indicator of the start of a PI distribution phase...

Well, after reading the analyses of these analysts, what have you gained? It seems very reasonable.. but is there complete guidance for operations, right?
On-chain indicators are like this; the peak formation is a process. It doesn't mean that the price will immediately drop just because 1-2 indicators appear. However, when these indicators appear repeatedly, the peak gradually forms.

If we were to correspond this to an operational guideline, I can roughly understand it as there should still be a game of chance between 110,000 and 120,000 in funds.. It still needs to shake back and forth.. Distribution of PI, entry of entry.. It may still rush to the high of 123,000, but each time it approaches here, there should be a wave of sell orders to take profits of over 4 billion..
In the short term, within 1-2 months, we can expect around 130,000. (For example, through speculation on the interest rate cuts in September) However, without a significant pullback, the expectation of reaching 140,000 or 150,000 all at once is not very realistic..

That's about it..

Let's review yesterday's operations.. Yesterday I tried a new and more aggressive trading method, entering into three low long positions.. The first entry was at 11.91W, and I lost 300.. The second entry was at 11.84W, but I had to leave and couldn't monitor the market, so I closed it (also because I lost on the first trade, which affected my mindset and I didn't want to lose two trades in a row) When I came back, I realized I could have actually made 1000 points. The third entry was at 11.72W, and I also made 1000 points and walked away.. Overall it was okay, but I don't really like this method, I think I'll stick to the previous one..

From the perspective of liquidity clearing, the accumulation of short positions above 118500.. (the short positions accumulated here did not break through 118300 during yesterday's rebound) Looking further up, it's above 12W..
There is still a huge accumulation below 115500.
(I have already imagined the scenario of clearing the liquidity here at midnight on Sunday..)

From the order perspective, the large buy order that was previously at 114500 has now moved up to 115000. There is still support here (combined with spot buy orders + liquidation + turnover vacuum zone, etc.). At the same time, yesterday there was a medium-sized order of 900 coins at 117000. In the middle of the night, after injecting a wave of liquidity, this order was consumed and rebounded. This was also mentioned in the group in advance yesterday.
Currently, there is a small sell order at 118300 in the spot market.. (A small order has pressed the price for 3-4 hours, and the liquidity on weekends is indeed not good) Further up, there is a small sell order at 120000, and the large sell orders are still at 125000.
The following are still 116,000 small buy orders and 115,000 medium buy orders..

Finally, today's thinking... 11.80w~11.83w Aggressive short feels like it can be tried.. If it breaks 11.86, then run away.. It's about doing the psychological pressure point here + spot sell orders + yesterday's rebound high + breaker block + yesterday's trading dense area. Just aim for a quick profit of 500-1000 points and then run.
The high point below 120,000 is also worth a shot.. Here is a spot sell order + breaker block.. Breaking 120,000 and stabilizing will allow for a getaway. However, this place was already rushed once when it was at 119,500.. It's uncertain whether it can break through 119,500 again, but I don't want to set a limit order at 119,500 in advance; the stop-loss would need to be over 1,000 points.. So I'm planning to set a limit order below 120,000, and if I can't get it, that's fine..

If you are bearish, aggressively you can target 117000~116800. The previous low from early this morning has not been tested + the dense transaction area on Tuesday... worth a 1000 point move. If it breaks below 116800 by a little bit, then exit.
Next is between 11.60~11.42.. I've mentioned it many times this week. Let's see if there will be an opportunity on Sunday morning.. Why is this range so wide? Because of multiple overlapping factors..
Long liquidations starting below 116,000... continuing until around 115,000... If there really is a liquidation wave, a spike to 114,000 is also possible... 114,000 is a persistent transaction vacuum zone... there will be a large amount of chips entering here... unless there is a major event, it is difficult to break through 114,000 in one go...