#以太坊突破3800#

Ethereum ( ETH ) has recently performed amazingly, surging 51% in just three weeks in July, far exceeding Bitcoin's 12% increase. As of July 21, the price of ETH has surpassed $3825, hitting a new high since December 2024. There are still two major resistance levels ahead - $4100 (last year's high) and $4800 (all-time high).

The Dual Drivers Behind the Surge
Institutional funds are pouring into the Ethereum market. BlackRock recently purchased $406 million in ETH, and its Ethereum ETF attracted nearly $500 million in a single day. The US spot Ethereum ETF saw a record inflow of $2.18 billion last week, demonstrating strong confidence from institutions.
The technological upgrades are equally indispensable. The Pectra upgrade, completed by the end of 2024, optimized the validator experience, while the Verkle Trees implemented in 2025 improved state storage efficiency. These improvements provide fundamental support for the price.
Technical indicators show that the Ethereum Relative Strength Index ( RSI ) has reached 84.74, indicating an overbought condition. The MACD indicator has risen to a high level since December 2023, sending a strong bullish signal.

First checkpoint: 4100 USD
$4100 is both last year's high and a key psychological resistance level. Analyst Captain Faibik points out that a breakthrough of $4000 would confirm the validity of the trend reversal. Fundstrat's Tom Lee believes that Ethereum could reach $4000 before the end of July.
From the perspective of wave theory, Ethereum is currently in the upward movement of the third wave, with a target price around $4100. The buying volume of call options on exchanges has surged, and the call/put option ratio has reached a six-month high, with many traders preparing for a strike price of $4000.
There are a large number of short positions around the vicinity of $3800, and a breakout could trigger a short covering wave, providing additional support for breaking through $4100.
Second level: Historical high of $4800, breaking through will target $5000
After breaking through $4100, the next target is the historical high of $4800. According to wave theory, the upward fifth wave may challenge $4525. Longer-term technical analysis indicates that the ultimate extension of the fifth wave is expected to reach $5095-6190.
Institutional capital continues to flow in, providing strong momentum. BlackRock has applied to add staking features to its Ethereum ETF, and CoinShares statistics show that last week the Ethereum ETF absorbed $990 million in funds, bringing its total inflows to $5.5 billion since its launch.
The Layer 2 ecosystem explosion is another catalyst. Platforms like Arbitrum and Optimism have seen a surge in trading volume and TVL, marking an increase in adoption rates. Analysts point out: "Ethereum's status as the DeFi infrastructure remains unshakable."

Investment Strategies and Risk Warnings
Long-term investors can adopt a core allocation strategy, holding ETH as a long-term asset, while appropriately investing in top Layer 2 tokens and DeFi blue-chip projects. Short-term traders should closely monitor technical indicators and set reasonable stop-loss points.
Be cautious that if the resistance zone of $3800-4000 is not broken, a pullback may occur. Regulatory risks, technical risks, and extreme market volatility are all potential risk factors.