2025 Crypto Market Outlook: Four Scenarios and Eleven Predictions

Since the beginning of 2024, the crypto market has experienced a surge cycle. From the approval of the Bitcoin ETF on January 10 to Bitcoin hitting a historical high, it subsequently led to the rise of altcoins, entering a volatile second and third quarter. Bitcoin broke through the $50,000 and $60,000 marks, and is currently hovering around $90,000.

It is worth noting that the rise of altcoins began when Bitcoin reached its peak. The first round was when Bitcoin attempted to hit $69,000 but failed, and the next round was the attempt to reach $100,000.

The next round of altcoin market activity is likely to occur after Bitcoin stabilizes at $100,000, expected in the first quarter of 2025. However, it may also repeat the situation of the second and third quarters of 2024. Here are four possible scenarios:

Four Major Market Scenarios

Scenario 1: Bitcoin and altcoins are generally rising. The continued rise in 2025 enters a new round of altcoin market. Bitcoin continues to rise, all tokens perform well, repeating the situation of the past two months (30-40% probability ).

Strategy: Buy the outstanding altcoins on dips.

Scenario 2: Bitcoin rises, and a few altcoins rise. Similar to 2024, there will be fluctuations upward in the coming months, but the overall outlook is more bullish. Tokens with good performance should be selected with a 50-60% probability (.

Strategy: Selectively buy altcoins at low prices. Avoid popular tracks and look for the next potential coin.

Scenario 3: Bitcoin rises, altcoins generally fall with a probability of 20-30%. ).

Strategy: Sell all altcoins. Reduce investment in altcoins; those that have not risen in the long term may need to be completely liquidated.

Scenario 4: Bitcoin falls, altcoins generally decline. The market has peaked with a 10-20% probability of (.

Due to the improving macro environment, the new round of Bitcoin historical high breakthroughs may not take as long as in 2024. The market's perception of Bitcoin has changed, and the new government has also brought new attention to the digital asset space. This makes it easier to persuade people to buy Bitcoin.

Risk Factors

Cycle Top: Currently not close to the cycle top, but continuous assessment is needed. The cycle top is usually a slowly forming range rather than a specific event.

Bitcoin Reserve Plan: If completely ignored, it would be bearish, but more likely it will be delayed. Even if initially bearish, it remains bullish in the long term.

Supply Risk: Always present, needs close attention. If handled properly, it may become a buying opportunity on dips.

Macroeconomic Risks: The expected interest rate cut is limited. As long as interest rates continue to decline, liquidity will improve. Unless there is a rate hike or no rate cut, the macro environment should be favorable for digital assets. A resurgence of inflation is the main risk.

Token Recommendations

1. AI: Preferred application technologies, collective intelligence, gaming, consumer-facing AI projects.

2. DeFi: Will continue to be an important narrative, but investment difficulty is high. Preferred options include AAVE, ENA, Morpho, etc.

3. L1 public chain: There may be new opportunities. Preferred options include SUI, Hype, etc.

4. NFTs and game tokens: worth paying attention to. Preferably Pengu, Anime ) Azuki (, etc.

5. Other narratives: including data tokens, Meme coins, DePIN, Ordinals, etc.

11 Predictions for 2025

1. A large company will implement DePIN in some way.

2. A certain trading platform will lose its market share position as the largest exchange.

3. With the progress of VR, metaverse tokens are gaining new life.

4. The resurgence of ICOs.

5. There will be no altcoin market on the Ethereum chain.

6. SUI reached a double-digit price of at least 10 dollars ).

7. Ethereum ETF staking approved, leading to more staking yield products.

8. A well-known artist uses NFTs and tokens to maintain fan engagement.

9. Bitcoin reaches 200,000 US dollars.

10. More CEOs/founders of L1 public chains have resigned.

11. Base failed in competition with other L1s and was replaced. Solana continues to maintain its advantage.