Crypto Assets Market Weekly Report

Performance of BTC and ETH this week

The cryptocurrency market has shown a fluctuating trend overall this week:

In terms of Bitcoin, it failed to follow the rise of US stocks and other risk assets, instead experiencing a decline. The main reason is the drop that occurred when market liquidity was weak last weekend, coupled with the movement of funds from Bitcoin addresses related to Mt. Gox this week, raising market concerns that Mt. Gox is about to carry out the final round of compensation, thus triggering a downward trend.

Ethereum also followed the market decline, but the drop was smaller than Bitcoin, demonstrating relative strength. From the perspective of spot ETFs, funds are still continuously flowing out, indicating that current investor interest in Ethereum is low.

Important Event Review

1. The Federal Reserve's expectation for a rate cut in September

The market has fully digested the expectations of the Federal Reserve starting to cut interest rates in September, and the current focus of discussion is whether to cut rates by 25 basis points or 50 basis points. Based on the economic data released this week, the market tends to believe that the likelihood of a 25 basis point cut is greater, which falls under a more cautious defensive rate cut.

2. Performance of U.S. Economic Data

This week's release of various economic data shows that the U.S. economy still has a certain degree of resilience, including a July CPI of 2.9%, a core CPI of 3.2%, and initial jobless claims lower than expected. These data have reduced market expectations for a significant interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September.

3. The geopolitical situation is tense.

The situation in the Middle East has worsened again, with the Iranian Revolutionary Guard attacking a U.S. military base in Lebanon. Ukraine has intensified its attacks on Russia, even raising concerns about potential leaks at the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant, further exacerbating the uncertainty of the Russia-Ukraine conflict.

4. Mt.Gox Bitcoin address fund movement

This Wednesday, addresses related to Mt.Gox saw a transfer of approximately $2 billion worth of Bitcoin. The market generally believes this may be a preliminary test for Mt.Gox to prepare for the final round of compensation, with expectations of the remaining over 40,000 Bitcoins being paid out soon. This news triggered a market decline, but from another perspective, the decade-long Mt.Gox risk may come to an end.

Altcoin Market Overview

This week, the market fear index rose to 13%, an improvement from last week’s 9.2%, but still within the fear zone. The sentiment for Altcoins has warmed mainly because they performed better than Bitcoin and Ethereum this week, showing a certain degree of catch-up. However, due to the lack of market hotspots and intense long-short battles caused by external macro factors, the capital entering Altcoins is limited, making the sustainability of this catch-up weak.

The top five tokens by increase are spread across different tracks such as L1s, NFTs, ETH-L2, DEX, and cross-chain, showing no obvious concentration characteristics in any sector. This week's rebound is stronger than last week's, with multiple projects starting to show catch-up growth.

The Meme coin sector rebounded this week, generally surpassing last week's performance, but its proportion among the top 50 tokens by growth has decreased, indicating that other sectors are performing more impressively.

Social Media Hotspots

According to social data statistics, the most关注度 this week is the L1s track. Most popular L1s projects have outperformed BTC and ETH, but no special events have occurred, which may be a补涨 for the insufficient rebound last week.

According to weekly return statistics, the SocialFi sector performed the best, mainly benefiting from the strong rise of TON. The AI sector performed the worst, with most tokens showing sluggish trends, indicating that market attention and capital flows have already shifted.

Important Events Next Week

• August 20: OORT Summit will be held
• August 21: Devcom & Gamescon Opening
• August 22: The number of initial jobless claims in the US is announced; Coinfest Asia 2024 takes place; Terraform Labs bankruptcy case begins preliminary encryption loss claims.

Market Outlook

1. Bitcoin: It is expected to continue to oscillate widely before the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut in September. The expectations of a U.S. economic recession have somewhat eased, and the market is beginning to lean towards a 25 basis point rate cut in September. However, the unstable global geopolitical situation and differing views on the future extent of rate cuts will lead to market volatility.

2. Ethereum: The continuous outflow of funds from the spot ETF indicates that the current price is not very attractive. It is expected to maintain a high correlation with Bitcoin and undergo wide fluctuations.

3. Altcoin: The rebound this week may come to an end, and due to a lack of new capital inflow, it is expected to fluctuate in sync with the broader market next week.