Bitcoin will迎来新一轮 bull run行情

This summer, I spent two weeks skiing in the Southern Hemisphere, primarily experiencing backcountry skiing trips. This activity requires a lot of energy, and my daily total energy expenditure exceeded 4000 kcal. To maintain a good state throughout the day, I would periodically consume high-sugar snacks and nutritious meals.

This dietary strategy reminds me of the relative importance of price and quantity in monetary policy. The price of currency is like sugar that provides energy quickly, while the quantity of currency is like "real food" that burns slowly. At last Friday's Jackson Hole central bank meeting, the Federal Reserve, Bank of England, and European Central Bank all indicated they would continue to lower policy interest rates.

The market reacted positively to this, with risk assets generally rising. However, this may lead to the re-emergence of yen carry trade risks, unless the central bank increases the money supply by expanding its balance sheet.

From an economic perspective, the Federal Reserve should actually raise interest rates rather than cut them. Since 2020, the U.S. CPI has risen by 22%, and the Federal Reserve's balance sheet has also increased significantly. The U.S. government deficit has reached a historic high, while real GDP growth remains strong.

However, as a highly financialized economy, the United States needs continuously rising asset prices to maintain the public's sense of prosperity. Therefore, the Federal Reserve may sacrifice economic rationality and choose to lower interest rates to stimulate the market.

If the Japanese yen appreciates rapidly due to a narrowing interest rate differential, it may offset the short-term stimulus effect of the interest rate cut. To prevent a market decline, the Federal Reserve may have to provide more "real food" by expanding its balance sheet.

For cryptocurrency investors, the current macro environment is very favorable: global central banks are lowering funding costs; the U.S. Treasury will continue to inject liquidity; the Bank of Japan remains cautious about the appreciation of the yen.

In this context, assets with limited supply like Bitcoin are likely to welcome a new round of bull run. Although there is uncertainty in the stock market, the Federal Reserve's decision to cut interest rates amidst high inflation and strong economic growth suggests that they may further expand the money supply, which will drive up Bitcoin prices.