Gold "Long Positions" Report: Gold prices may reach $8,900 by the end of 2030

In recent years, the global political and economic landscape has changed dramatically, and gold has once again become the focus of the capital market. The 2025 annual report "We Trust Gold" published by the gold investment company Incrementum points out that the world is undergoing a new round of financial restructuring, with gold emerging as a currency asset with no counterparty risk and no inflation risk, its strategic significance becoming increasingly prominent. From the deindustrialization of the United States and uncontrollable fiscal deficits, to the rise of non-state credit assets such as Bitcoin, and the large-scale purchases of gold by central banks, these trends together form the backdrop of the "golden long positions" pattern.

The report compares the current gold bull market to the opposite of the movie "The Big Short": against the backdrop of the restructuring of the global financial monetary system, strategically investing in gold will yield considerable returns. Currently, gold is in the second phase of the bull market, the "public participation phase", characterized by:

• Media reports are becoming increasingly optimistic
• Speculative interest and trading volume increase
• New financial product launch
• Analyst raises price target

In the past five years, global gold prices have risen by 92%, while the actual purchasing power of the US dollar against gold has declined by nearly 50%. Last year, gold reached 43 historical highs in dollar terms, second only to the 57 in 1979, and as of the end of April this year, it has already set 22 new highs. Although it has surpassed $3000, compared to historical bull markets, this rise is still considered moderate.

The report proposes a new concept of the 60/40 investment portfolio, rethinking the traditional 60% stock/40% bond allocation:

• Stocks: 45%
• Bonds: 15%
• Safe-haven Gold: 15%
• Performance gold: 10%
• Commodities: 10%
• Bitcoin:5%

This reflects the view on the current market environment, especially the concerns about losing trust in traditional safe-haven assets such as government bonds.

Key factors affecting gold include:

1. Geopolitical Restructuring: The global landscape is accelerating its reconfiguration, which is favorable for gold. Gold has three major advantages as an anchor for the new monetary order: neutrality, no counterparty risk, and high liquidity.

2. Trump’s policies: addressing government debt, trade policy reform, and dollar depreciation may lead to a slowdown in the U.S. economy.

3. Changes in European monetary policy: Germany and other countries abandon fiscal conservatism.

4. Central Bank Demand: Continuous net purchases since 2009, accelerating after the freezing of Russia's currency reserves in 2022.

5. Continuous depreciation of fiat currency: The growth of money supply is a long-term driving factor for gold prices.

6. Gold as portfolio insurance: performs exceptionally well during economic recessions and stock market bear markets.

The report retains the concept of "shadow gold price" ( SGP ), which refers to the theoretical price fully backed by the supply of base currency by gold. According to current market prices:

• The dollar M0 is fully backed by gold: $21,416
• The Eurozone M0 is fully backed by gold: approximately 13,500 euros
• The US M2 is fully backed by gold: $82,223
• Switzerland's M2 is fully backed by gold: 29,101 Swiss Francs

Incrementum Gold Price Model Prediction:

• Basic scenario: about $4,800 by the end of 2030, mid-term target of $2,942 by the end of 2025.
• Inflation scenario: approximately $8,900 by the end of 2030, mid-term target of $4,080 by the end of 2025

Currently, the price of gold has exceeded the mid-term target in the baseline scenario for the end of 2025. The report believes that by the end of this decade, prices are likely to be between two scenarios, depending on the level of inflation over the next five years.

Reports warn that a second wave of inflation, similar to that of the 1970s, should not be ruled out. In the coming months, a deflationary trend may still prevail, but long-term inflation risks have not been eliminated. Quantitative analysis shows that gold, silver, and mining stocks perform exceptionally well in a stagflation environment.

Silver and mining stocks have significant catch-up potential in the current decade. Market dynamics show that gold typically leads the rally, followed by silver, mining stocks, and commodities.

Bitcoin could benefit from the current restructuring of the world order. The report suggests that by the end of 2030, Bitcoin's market capitalization could reach 50% of that of gold. If the price of gold reaches $4,800, Bitcoin would need to rise to about $900,000 to achieve this target.

The report points out the following risk factors that may lead to short-term adjustments:

• Central bank demand unexpectedly decreased
• Investors reduce positions and long positions decrease
• Geopolitical premium decline
• The US economy is stronger than expected
• High-tech and emotion-driven risks
• The US dollar strengthens

In the short term, gold prices may pull back to around $2800, or experience sideways consolidation. However, this adjustment may be part of the bull market consolidation process and will not affect the medium to long-term upward trend.

The conclusion is that the gold bull market has not yet ended and is currently in the mid-stage of public participation. Gold is transitioning from being viewed as an outdated relic to a key asset in investment portfolios, providing both defensive stability and offensive potential. The long-term rise is based on several mutually reinforcing pillars:

• Global financial currency system restructuring
• Government and central bank inflation tendencies
• The economic rise of Asia and the Arab world
• Capital shifting from US assets
• "Performance Gold" expected excess returns

The report indicates that the current rise in gold prices may be a precursor to a "black swan moment." As the existing monetary system loses credibility, gold may regain its role as a monetary asset in the form of a supranational settlement asset. In times of geopolitical and economic turmoil, gold once again proves itself to be a reliable safe-haven asset.