The probability of a Fed rate cut in July has dropped, and the market is focusing on the key price levels of Bitcoin and Ethereum.

Market Observation

Recently, the market focus has concentrated on the Fed's monetary policy. Although inflation data shows signs of cooling, several Fed officials have stated that more time is needed to observe and confirm that rising prices do not evolve into sustained inflation, thus holding a cautious attitude toward a rate cut in July. Officials believe that the current monetary policy is in a good position and are inclined to consider a rate cut later this year. This attitude stems from a reliance on future data and a prudent assessment of external factors, with the labor market slowing but not yet showing significant weakness providing further support.

On Thursday, the three major U.S. stock indexes closed higher collectively, with technology and bank stocks leading the gains. At the same time, U.S. Treasury yields fell across the board, and the dollar index dropped for the fourth consecutive day to its lowest level in three years. Market expectations for the Fed to cut interest rates at least twice this year have strengthened.

The Hong Kong government has released a new policy declaration for the development of digital assets, marking a new phase for digital assets in Hong Kong. The policy specifies the implementation of a stablecoin licensing system by 2025, promotes asset tokenization, and provides tax incentives for related ETFs and funds. Hong Kong is becoming a new hub for the global digital economy through regulatory frameworks, asset transparency, and tax competitiveness.

Bitcoin prices have slowed down after rebounding nearly 10% from $98,188. Today marks the largest expiration of Bitcoin and Ethereum options this year, which could exacerbate short-term volatility. Analysis shows that Bitcoin prices are primarily driven by macro news, receiving strong support in the range of $93,000 to $100,000, but on-chain activity and spot trading volume are both on a downward trend, indicating a lack of momentum for breaking new highs.

Multiple analysts believe that Bitcoin needs to break through the resistance range of $108,000 to $110,000 to enter a new price discovery phase. Currently, the market value to realized value ratio (MVRV) is 2.22, which is below the historically high valuation range, indicating that there is still room for an increase. If MVRV momentum strengthens along with ETF fund inflows, the price of Bitcoin could break the current high and even reach above $165,000.

For Ethereum, $2200 is seen as a macro bottom, and the price needs to effectively return above $2500 to trigger a stronger rebound. Recently, the Federal Housing Finance Agency in the U.S. directed the acceptance of cryptocurrencies as collateral for mortgage assets, driving the emergence of a "home buying narrative" on-chain.

Key Data

• Bitcoin: $107,432, daily trading volume $20.96 billion
• Ethereum: $2,439.40, daily trading volume $10.53 billion
• Fear and Greed Index: 65 (Greed)
• Market share: BTC 65.1%, ETH 9.0%
• 24-hour BTC long-short ratio: 0.9826
• Total liquidation amount in 24 hours: 201 million USD

ETF Flow

• Bitcoin ETF: +$228 million (continuous net inflow for 13 days)
• Ethereum ETF: -26.4579 million USD

Today's Outlook

• Several trading platforms will launch or delist some contracts and tokens.
• Multiple projects will undergo token unlocks

Hot News

• Grayscale updates Q3 Top 20 asset list
• A large whale deposited 1613 Bitcoins into the trading platform, worth $173 million.
• Huaxing Capital announces a $100 million entry into the Web3.0 and cryptocurrency sector.
• GameStop raised $450 million again, which may be used to purchase BTC.
• The Solana re-staking protocol Fragmetric has launched the FRAG token.
• zkLend announced the project shutdown, and the remaining funds will be used for user compensation.