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The latest meeting minutes released by the Fed once again demonstrate their usual double-talk strategy. On one hand, they emphasize that the inflation situation is still not stable enough, suggesting that they may continue to maintain a tight policy; on the other hand, they express an open attitude towards a possible rate cut in September, with specific decisions depending on economic data.
This statement evokes the image of a fitness enthusiast who talks about wanting to gain muscle but is actually secretly enjoying high-calorie ice cream. The Fed acts like a fierce hawk in the meeting room, but in the press release, it turns into a gentle dove. This contradictory stance confuses market participants, making it difficult to accurately grasp the direction of policy.
A careful analysis of the Fed's statements reveals a clear 'sandwich' structure:
1. Start with a strong hawkish stance, hinting that there will be no easing of monetary policy in the short term.
2. It later emphasized the reliance on economic data, particularly employment and inflation indicators, suggesting that policies may adjust based on these indicators.
3. Finally, it expresses an open attitude towards future policies, not ruling out the possibility of a rate cut in September, but also not committing to doing so.
The Fed's 'hawkish-dovish' performance leaves a lot of room for interpretation in the market. Although this ambiguous statement is worthy of criticism, investors still need to be cautious and act according to established investment discipline. Because the Fed is always able to express different positions in different situations, and we can only rely on strict investment rules to cope with this uncertainty.