Recently, the financial market has shown a disturbing slow fall trend, lacking clear technical signals, which has put traders in a difficult position. This situation mainly stems from the repeated fluctuations in interest rate cut expectations. Some officials have openly stated that they do not support a rate cut in September, leading to a setback in market optimism, with CME's probability of a rate cut retreating from its peak to around 75%, and risk appetite decreasing accordingly.

The upcoming Jackson Hole annual meeting will become the market focus. Central bank leaders are expected to continue to emphasize a 'data-dependent' stance without prematurely revealing specific policy direction for September.

Looking back at the past few economic cycles, we find that whether it is the stock market or the cryptocurrency market's big trends, they are often accompanied by clear policy drives or major macro events. This year's market performance has broken the conventional seasonal patterns, showing characteristics of adjustment in the first half and an increase in the second half. Whether the upward trend can continue in the fourth quarter largely depends on market expectation management after the September meeting.

If there is no interest rate cut in September, the market may experience a disappointing drop in the short term, especially those emotion-driven assets may suffer. However, we need to analyze this situation more deeply: first, the Fed is not in a hurry to take action, which essentially reflects their confidence in the resilience of the U.S. economy; second, the Fed still has more than 400 basis points of policy space, and once the economy clearly weakens, they are fully capable of quickly dropping rates to stabilize the market. In other words, delaying the rate cut is not abandoning support but rather reserving policy space for the future.

From a financial perspective, if the market drops due to disappointment, it may create better chip and valuation ranges. Similar situations in history, such as the pandemic shock in early 2020 and the panic following aggressive interest rate hikes in 2022, often provided better entry opportunities for long-term funds. Especially in the context of increasing institutionalization, long-term funds are more inclined to increase their positions during a certain drop rather than chasing highs.

Overall, although the short-term market may face fluctuations, investors should remain calm, focus on long-term economic fundamentals and policy direction, and look for potential investment opportunities during market adjustments.