The changes in market sentiment are always fascinating. Just when everyone on Crypto Twitter was enthusiastically bullish on ETH, many people suddenly turned bearish overnight. I want to share some market thoughts and discuss what might happen next. Let's zoom out and take a look at the data.
Historical Background
Here is the price performance chart of BTC in the past bull market cycle:
By studying past cycles, you will find that the timing of BTC cycle tops is very consistent:
In 2021, BTC reached its peak in November 2021.
In 2017, BTC reached its peak in December 2017.
In 2013, BTC reached its peak in December 2013.
The peak of each cycle occurs in the fourth quarter after the halving, appearing in 2013, 2017, 2021, and now in 2025.
Another interesting observation is that although September is usually one of the weakest months for Bitcoin, October has historically been one of the strongest months.
Although many people are panicking due to the recent decline, the market correction at the end of Q3 ( is not uncommon and is even consistent with past situations. Does this mean that this cycle will be exactly the same as before? Of course not. But while history does not repeat itself, there are often similarities.
For September, I have mixed feelings because historically, September has performed poorly. However, based on past cycle experiences, I believe Q4 will be a good quarter for the cryptocurrency market, as the final stage of a bull market cycle usually sees significant increases.
In addition to seasonal factors, the following several factors also make me believe that Q4 will be bullish:
1. Interest rate cut is coming ) This time it is true (
Let's temporarily step out of cryptocurrency and take a look at the macroeconomy. According to data from Polymarket, the likelihood of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates in September is 64%. Why is this important?
Because when central banks lower interest rates, the cost of borrowing decreases, and the reduction in bond yields drives investors towards higher-risk assets, such as cryptocurrencies. Historically, significant rate cuts have been beneficial for risk assets like cryptocurrencies.
2. Cryptocurrency companies continue to buy in large amounts
The data is shocking. According to the data, over 532,000 ETH), currently worth over $2 billion(, were purchased by cryptocurrency companies through their asset reserves just last week.
It is important to note that the staking-based Ethereum ETF has not yet been approved.
The weekly buying pressure of $2 billion is a huge tailwind for ETH and other tokens. Although these companies may eventually run out of funds, I believe that considering the current inflow of capital, the peak of this bull market has not yet arrived.
3. The top signal has not fully appeared yet
Recently, the search volume for "crypto" has reached a four-year high, and Jim Cramer has also turned bullish, which allowed me to take a small profit earlier this week. But besides that, the other "top signals" mentioned last week have not yet appeared. For example:
Coinbase's App Store ranking is currently still outside the top 200, while in the last cycle it reached the top of the App Store.
The Fear and Greed Index still looks healthy. Despite the recent market rise, it has not yet reached extreme euphoria levels.
Although ETH has seen significant gains in the past few weeks, a short-term pullback is normal. However, unless this is the worst cycle in history, I believe the best is yet to come.
My Positioning Strategy
As mentioned above, historically the best buying opportunity after a halving is usually at the end of September in the second year after the halving ) the last halving occurred in 2024 (, because October is usually a strong month for BTC.
According to the popular narrative at the end of September, I will choose some popular tokens at that time to increase my position during the big dip, welcoming Q4. If there is no major pullback, I will continue to hold my existing position. Then, I plan to gradually take profits in Q4 and significantly reduce my cryptocurrency exposure by the end of the year ) if everything goes as expected (.
This is my current plan.
But please remember, this is a game of probability, and the situation may change significantly in a few months. As investors/traders, our task is to continuously adjust our strategies based on new information.
My suggestion is: Build your own investment logic based on your expectations. But no matter what you think will happen in the next few months, risk management is always the top priority.
I have said many times: The hardest part is not making money, but keeping the money you have made.
This page may contain third-party content, which is provided for information purposes only (not representations/warranties) and should not be considered as an endorsement of its views by Gate, nor as financial or professional advice. See Disclaimer for details.
What stage are we in the cycle?
Compilation: Vernacular Blockchain
The changes in market sentiment are always fascinating. Just when everyone on Crypto Twitter was enthusiastically bullish on ETH, many people suddenly turned bearish overnight. I want to share some market thoughts and discuss what might happen next. Let's zoom out and take a look at the data.
Historical Background
Here is the price performance chart of BTC in the past bull market cycle:
By studying past cycles, you will find that the timing of BTC cycle tops is very consistent:
The peak of each cycle occurs in the fourth quarter after the halving, appearing in 2013, 2017, 2021, and now in 2025.
Another interesting observation is that although September is usually one of the weakest months for Bitcoin, October has historically been one of the strongest months.
Although many people are panicking due to the recent decline, the market correction at the end of Q3 ( is not uncommon and is even consistent with past situations. Does this mean that this cycle will be exactly the same as before? Of course not. But while history does not repeat itself, there are often similarities.
For September, I have mixed feelings because historically, September has performed poorly. However, based on past cycle experiences, I believe Q4 will be a good quarter for the cryptocurrency market, as the final stage of a bull market cycle usually sees significant increases.
In addition to seasonal factors, the following several factors also make me believe that Q4 will be bullish:
1. Interest rate cut is coming ) This time it is true (
Let's temporarily step out of cryptocurrency and take a look at the macroeconomy. According to data from Polymarket, the likelihood of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates in September is 64%. Why is this important?
Because when central banks lower interest rates, the cost of borrowing decreases, and the reduction in bond yields drives investors towards higher-risk assets, such as cryptocurrencies. Historically, significant rate cuts have been beneficial for risk assets like cryptocurrencies.
2. Cryptocurrency companies continue to buy in large amounts
The data is shocking. According to the data, over 532,000 ETH), currently worth over $2 billion(, were purchased by cryptocurrency companies through their asset reserves just last week.
It is important to note that the staking-based Ethereum ETF has not yet been approved.
![])https://img-cdn.gateio.im/webp-social/moments-88032c2bfb5b3369c2460f4f219a5e15.webp(
The weekly buying pressure of $2 billion is a huge tailwind for ETH and other tokens. Although these companies may eventually run out of funds, I believe that considering the current inflow of capital, the peak of this bull market has not yet arrived.
3. The top signal has not fully appeared yet
Recently, the search volume for "crypto" has reached a four-year high, and Jim Cramer has also turned bullish, which allowed me to take a small profit earlier this week. But besides that, the other "top signals" mentioned last week have not yet appeared. For example:
Coinbase's App Store ranking is currently still outside the top 200, while in the last cycle it reached the top of the App Store.
The Fear and Greed Index still looks healthy. Despite the recent market rise, it has not yet reached extreme euphoria levels.
![])https://img-cdn.gateio.im/webp-social/moments-6e41549e77990f7a5c508a4fb109cb13.webp(
Although ETH has seen significant gains in the past few weeks, a short-term pullback is normal. However, unless this is the worst cycle in history, I believe the best is yet to come.
My Positioning Strategy
As mentioned above, historically the best buying opportunity after a halving is usually at the end of September in the second year after the halving ) the last halving occurred in 2024 (, because October is usually a strong month for BTC.
![])https://img-cdn.gateio.im/webp-social/moments-303ac27f405f09d18879e991456d485e.webp(
This is exactly my plan.
According to the popular narrative at the end of September, I will choose some popular tokens at that time to increase my position during the big dip, welcoming Q4. If there is no major pullback, I will continue to hold my existing position. Then, I plan to gradually take profits in Q4 and significantly reduce my cryptocurrency exposure by the end of the year ) if everything goes as expected (.
This is my current plan.
But please remember, this is a game of probability, and the situation may change significantly in a few months. As investors/traders, our task is to continuously adjust our strategies based on new information.
My suggestion is: Build your own investment logic based on your expectations. But no matter what you think will happen in the next few months, risk management is always the top priority.
I have said many times: The hardest part is not making money, but keeping the money you have made.
This article link:
Source: