Bitcoin ETF had a net inflow of $332.7 million in a single day, driving the market rebound, with key resistance level at $110,700 | BTC price prediction
Bitcoin ETF recorded a net inflow of $332.7 million on Tuesday, significantly surpassing the outflow of $135.3 million from Ethereum ETF, driving the BTC price to rebound from a low of $107,250 to around $111,700. Despite strong institutional demand, analyst Ali Martinez pointed out that Bitcoin still faces a resistance level at $110,700, and if it cannot break through, it may retract to $107,200 or even $103,000. Furthermore, global Central Bank liquidity cycles and macro factors such as the growth of U.S. debt exceeding liquidity are also considered to have a significant impact on Bitcoin's medium to long-term trends.
Bitcoin ETF leads capital inflow, institutional allocation preferences are evident
According to SoSoValue data, Bitcoin ETFs saw a net inflow of $332.7 million on Tuesday, with Fidelity's FBTC leading at $132.7 million, BlackRock's IBIT attracting $72.8 million, and funds like Ark, 21Shares, and VanEck also receiving new capital. In contrast, Ethereum ETFs experienced a net outflow of $135.3 million, with Fidelity's FETH seeing outflows of $99.2 million in a single day. The divergence in fund flows indicates that institutional investors currently favor Bitcoin.
BTC price rebounds but still faces key resistance
Capital inflows have driven BTC to rebound from a low of $107,250 to around $111,700. Analyst Ali Martinez pointed out that Bitcoin has faced resistance multiple times around $110,700, and if it cannot effectively break through, it may retrace to $107,200 or $103,000 to seek support.
Despite the rebound, institutional accumulation of Bitcoin continues. The publicly traded company MicroStrategy (now renamed Strategy) recently purchased 4,048 BTC at an average price of $11,000, bringing its total holdings to 636,505 BTC, valued at approximately $47 billion. Additionally, the UAE holds over 6,300 BTC through the state-backed Citadel Mining, becoming one of the top four countries in the world for sovereign Bitcoin holdings.
The global Central Bank liquidity cycle and Bitcoin prices have a lagged correlation
(Central Bank Global Liquidity vs BTC Price | Source: Alphractal)
Research by the analysis agency Alphractal indicates that the expansion and contraction cycle of global Central Bank liquidity (fluctuating between $28-31 trillion from 2023 to 2025) has a lagging effect of about two months on Bitcoin prices. The entry of liquidity into the expansion phase usually signals a subsequent rise in Bitcoin, while when liquidity peaks and retreats, BTC tends to enter a consolidation phase.
Since 2020, the four-year cycle of Bitcoin has closely matched the global liquidity cycle. The current liquidity is stable below $30 trillion, which can partly explain the oscillating trend of Bitcoin between $100,000 and $120,000 in the third quarter.
Debt growth exceeding liquidity may trigger market vulnerabilities
Realvision's Chief Crypto Analyst Jamie Coutts pointed out that if debt growth continues to outpace Liquidity expansion, it could trigger financial stress and market vulnerability. The current debt to liquidity ratio in the United States has fallen to a low level, indicating that risk assets may face pressure.
Billionaire Ray Dalio also warned that the level of U.S. government debt has reached a dangerous level, which could trigger "economic heart disease" in the next three years, and stated that cryptocurrencies with limited supply may become an alternative when the dollar depreciates.
Conclusion
Bitcoin shows resilience under the support of institutional ETF fund inflows and macro liquidity cycles, but it needs to break through key resistance levels in the short term to confirm a further upward trend. Investors should pay attention to changes in Central Bank policies, debt liquidity ratios, and the correlation between Bitcoin and traditional financial assets to seize mid- to long-term trend opportunities.
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Bitcoin ETF had a net inflow of $332.7 million in a single day, driving the market rebound, with key resistance level at $110,700 | BTC price prediction
Bitcoin ETF recorded a net inflow of $332.7 million on Tuesday, significantly surpassing the outflow of $135.3 million from Ethereum ETF, driving the BTC price to rebound from a low of $107,250 to around $111,700. Despite strong institutional demand, analyst Ali Martinez pointed out that Bitcoin still faces a resistance level at $110,700, and if it cannot break through, it may retract to $107,200 or even $103,000. Furthermore, global Central Bank liquidity cycles and macro factors such as the growth of U.S. debt exceeding liquidity are also considered to have a significant impact on Bitcoin's medium to long-term trends.
Bitcoin ETF leads capital inflow, institutional allocation preferences are evident
According to SoSoValue data, Bitcoin ETFs saw a net inflow of $332.7 million on Tuesday, with Fidelity's FBTC leading at $132.7 million, BlackRock's IBIT attracting $72.8 million, and funds like Ark, 21Shares, and VanEck also receiving new capital. In contrast, Ethereum ETFs experienced a net outflow of $135.3 million, with Fidelity's FETH seeing outflows of $99.2 million in a single day. The divergence in fund flows indicates that institutional investors currently favor Bitcoin.
BTC price rebounds but still faces key resistance
Capital inflows have driven BTC to rebound from a low of $107,250 to around $111,700. Analyst Ali Martinez pointed out that Bitcoin has faced resistance multiple times around $110,700, and if it cannot effectively break through, it may retrace to $107,200 or $103,000 to seek support.
Despite the rebound, institutional accumulation of Bitcoin continues. The publicly traded company MicroStrategy (now renamed Strategy) recently purchased 4,048 BTC at an average price of $11,000, bringing its total holdings to 636,505 BTC, valued at approximately $47 billion. Additionally, the UAE holds over 6,300 BTC through the state-backed Citadel Mining, becoming one of the top four countries in the world for sovereign Bitcoin holdings.
The global Central Bank liquidity cycle and Bitcoin prices have a lagged correlation
(Central Bank Global Liquidity vs BTC Price | Source: Alphractal)
Research by the analysis agency Alphractal indicates that the expansion and contraction cycle of global Central Bank liquidity (fluctuating between $28-31 trillion from 2023 to 2025) has a lagging effect of about two months on Bitcoin prices. The entry of liquidity into the expansion phase usually signals a subsequent rise in Bitcoin, while when liquidity peaks and retreats, BTC tends to enter a consolidation phase.
Since 2020, the four-year cycle of Bitcoin has closely matched the global liquidity cycle. The current liquidity is stable below $30 trillion, which can partly explain the oscillating trend of Bitcoin between $100,000 and $120,000 in the third quarter.
Debt growth exceeding liquidity may trigger market vulnerabilities
Realvision's Chief Crypto Analyst Jamie Coutts pointed out that if debt growth continues to outpace Liquidity expansion, it could trigger financial stress and market vulnerability. The current debt to liquidity ratio in the United States has fallen to a low level, indicating that risk assets may face pressure.
Billionaire Ray Dalio also warned that the level of U.S. government debt has reached a dangerous level, which could trigger "economic heart disease" in the next three years, and stated that cryptocurrencies with limited supply may become an alternative when the dollar depreciates.
Conclusion
Bitcoin shows resilience under the support of institutional ETF fund inflows and macro liquidity cycles, but it needs to break through key resistance levels in the short term to confirm a further upward trend. Investors should pay attention to changes in Central Bank policies, debt liquidity ratios, and the correlation between Bitcoin and traditional financial assets to seize mid- to long-term trend opportunities.