#非农就业数据来袭#

Non-farm payrolls plummet: Is the US job market suddenly on "vacation"?
The non-farm payroll data for August came in significantly below expectations, as if the boss suddenly announced "next month we will cut hiring," leaving workers stunned. This is not a minor episode, but rather a signal flare for an economic slowdown. Weak employment means a decline in consumer spending, businesses are hitting the brakes on expansion, and the dream of a soft landing for the U.S. economy is instantly overshadowed.
But the market's thinking is quite strange: Non-farm payrolls are bad? The probability of interest rate cuts is high! So the stock market is shouting "economic recession" while partying like it's a festival. U.S. Treasury yields are turning down, gold is rising, and Bitcoin is also riding the wave of popularity. Bad news has turned into "good news," and Wall Street's logic always makes one wonder: Is it because the data is bad that they have more to sing about?
From an alternative perspective, this is a typical case of "policy kidnapping": poor data, market in distress, and the Federal Reserve is forced to play the role of a caretaker. Over time, this economic game resembles a parent managing a misbehaving child, where the more they cry, the more candy they get. The problem is, there will come a day when the candy runs out.
Conclusion: A chill in employment has arrived, the market is high in the short term, but not so good in the long term. Smart players should not be thinking about "how much longer can it rise," but rather "will there be any candy left next time we cry?"