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2025-03-03 Daily Vol. G to the M.
Absolutely ridiculous save on the weekly candle.
Very bitcoin. Very demure.
Retrospective
- Overall, net a small loss.
New day, new week, new positioning.
- Tactical longs on majors(BTC ETH SOL XRP) around 90k towards Friday.
- Luckily no ADA on Lighter perps, so some dignity spared.
Thoughts on the Strategic Crypto Reserve News(SCR)
- I think the immediate reaction for most people is to sell the pump.
- CT is conditioned to be defensive and pretty sidelined on this move. Mostly in either shorts, stables, or holding anything but ADA.
- So considering positioning of market participants and the white house crypto summit on Friday, longs seem protected until then.
- SCR generally seems bad for BTC. I think we may see more signs of a BTC dominance top by Friday.
- If BTC price holds post the summit, considering SOL/BTC long
Macro Context. Bearish Mid-term.
- Both tradfi and crypto has been skittish.
- Equities is seeing similar patterns to crypto.
- Mag 7(<> BTC) saw majority of flows and it kept markets up, while smaller momentum plays are starting to drop like flies. Sentiment is fearful mode. Just like crypto.
- Maybe tradfi gets saved by Trump too, but the underlying direction seems pretty clear; derisking.