Ethereum News: Over 70% Chance of Staking ETF Approval, Institutional Deployment Accelerates

Ethereum’s recent strong rebound has attracted market attention. In May, ETH price In the past 7 days, it has surged by 40.4%, with a market capitalization increase of $87.58 billion in a single week, surpassing Alibaba to become the 39th largest asset globally. On-chain funds are pouring in simultaneously, with the Ethereum ecosystem attracting a net inflow of $1.2 billion over the past 30 days, ranking first among public chains. Behind this wave of market activity, regulatory progress on Ether staking ETFs has become a key catalyst.

Probability of Staking ETF Approval Exceeds 70%

The attitude of U.S. regulators towards the staking function of Ethereum ETFs is turning towards openness. In May 2025, BlackRock held a closed-door meeting with the SEC’s crypto working group, with the core topic being “promoting ETPs (exchange-traded products) with staking functions.” Robert Mitchnick, head of digital assets at BlackRock, emphasized that staking yields are an important component of investment returns in this field, and Ethereum ETFs lacking staking functionality will be at a competitive disadvantage.

Bloomberg analyst James Seyffart predicts that the SEC may approve the staking feature as early as the end of May and no later than the end of October. From the regulatory process perspective, May, August, and October are three key decision windows. Considering the progress of institutional negotiations and policy trends, the probability of approval has now exceeded 70%.

The Hong Kong market has taken the lead in breaking the ice. In April this year, the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission (SFC) allowed virtual asset funds to participate in on-chain staking and approved two Ethereum spot ETFs with staking capabilities. This practice provides important references for U.S. regulators.

Whales and Institutions Positioning in Advance

Market funds are taking concrete actions to bet on the implementation of staking functionality:

• Whales Awaken: On June 27, a whale address that had been dormant for 7 months suddenly transferred 5,180 ETH (worth 12.57 million USD) from Binance. Aave V3 staking operations
• Mining transformation: Bitcoin mining company Bit Digital raised $150 million to purchase ETH, planning to gradually convert its holdings of 418 BTC into Ethereum and exit the Bitcoin mining business.
• ETF attraction: The total net asset value of Ethereum spot ETFs surpassed $10 billion, accounting for 3.27% of the total market value of ETH, with BlackRock’s product leading at a scale of $4.18 billion.

Explosive Growth of the Staking Sector

With the warming expectations of staking, Ethereum’s staking ecological data is impressive:

• The total staking volume across the network has surpassed 35 million ETH, setting a new historical high
• The TVL of the staking sector has rebounded to $34.11 billion, with a monthly increase of 60.3%
• The TVL of the re-staking sector has reached $12.85 billion, with a monthly increase of 54.8%

Top projects are performing particularly strong:

• Lido: TVL $22.93 billion, up 57.5% month-on-month, about to launch a “dual governance” mechanism to mitigate governance risks.
• EigenLayer: TVL $11.36 billion, mainnet has launched slashing penalty mechanism, will support non-Ether asset redistribution in June.
• SSV Network: Token has increased by 91.6% this month, with active validators exceeding 100,000, accounting for 10% of the Ethereum network.

Market Impact and Price Outlook

If the staking feature is approved, the Ethereum ETF will transform from a passive tracking product into an investment tool capable of generating returns. It is estimated that the current annualized staking yield for ETH is about 3.5%, and after considering the ETF management fees, it can still provide investors with a net return of 2%-2.5%, significantly enhancing its attractiveness.

Analysts believe that the launch of a staking ETF could drive ETH to challenge the $5,000 mark, but it requires three key conditions:

1. AI application implementation: Ethereum Layer 2 becomes the preferred funding management infrastructure for AI agents like ChatGPT
2. Pectra upgrade effect: Enhancing data transmission efficiency to lay the foundation for Layer 2 expansion and promote on-chain activity growth
3. Restart of deflationary mechanism: The current network burn rate is insufficient and needs to significantly increase transaction volume to restore deflationary attributes.

The staking function is becoming the key factor in breaking the deadlock of the Ethereum ETF. With giants like BlackRock continuously pushing for regulatory discussions and successful precedents in the Hong Kong market, the third quarter of 2025 may usher in a historic breakthrough. Once implemented, the combination of tens of billions of incremental funds entering the market and the staking yield model will restructure the pricing logic of crypto assets, injecting a new round of growth momentum into the Ethereum ecosystem.