Bitcoin Price Prediction: BTC Continues to Consolidate with Fluctuations, Technical Indicators Indicate Pullback Risks

Bitcoin has oscillated within a narrow range of $115,000 to $120,000 over the past 10 days, indicating a continuation of price compression. Despite long positions attempting to break through the $120,000 resistance level, they have been unsuccessful, and analysts are warning that a pullback may be imminent. The coming days are expected to be a decisive moment, with both technical analysis and on-chain data pointing to a potential surge in Fluctuation.

Bitcoin on-chain data: Increased activity of long-term holders According to CryptoQuant, a key long-term indicator—the monthly cumulative destruction days (CDD) and the annual CDD ratio—has reached an unusually high level of 0.25. This level appeared in the price range of $106,000 to $118,000, where there has been a significant amount of activity from long positions. Historically, similar CDD peaks occurred during the macro market peaks in 2014 and the pullback phase in 2019, both marking periods of intense market allocation.

This unusual on-chain behavior reflects the active trading of Bitcoin, which has been dormant for a long time, suggesting that experienced holders may be taking profits in the current price range. Although this behavior does not indicate a trend reversal, it reinforces the idea that Bitcoin's current consolidation phase may be a critical turning point—one that could trigger an upward movement or, in the absence of momentum being regained by long positions, lead to a deeper pullback.

Market Distribution Signal: Changes in Long-Term Holder Behavior Top analyst Axel Adler points out that a key shift in Bitcoin market behavior is the sharp rise in the monthly CDD to annual CDD ratio, indicating that long positions (LTHs) are starting to reintroduce dormant Bitcoins back into the market. Historically, periods of elevated CDD values are typically accompanied by active behavior from experienced investors, often signaling a distribution phase, which means starting to realize profits after a long holding period.

These peaks are worth noting as they indicate that Bitcoin held for years is re-entering the market. According to Adler's analysis, such behavior typically stems from holders with a deep understanding of the market, who identify potential market inflection points. However, this does not necessarily mean that the bull market has ended. Although short-term gains may be limited and could bring more Fluctuation, the current macroeconomic and institutional trends continue to provide strong support for the market.

Bitcoin ETF and Institutional Demand Provide Support for the Market Institutional demand remains strong, with ongoing capital inflows into Bitcoin ETFs providing support for the market, serving as an important buffer against excessive downward pressure. This structural support is especially important during the current distribution phase, helping Bitcoin maintain overall upward momentum, even though fluctuations may occur as some distribution activities unfold.

Bitcoin price remains volatile, waiting for a breakout Bitcoin (BTC) continues to consolidate within a narrow range, with the 12-hour chart showing price fluctuations between the key support level of $115,724 and the resistance level of $122,077. After a strong rally earlier this month, market momentum has noticeably weakened, and BTC has been fluctuating within this range for over 10 days.

It is worth noting that the current price is hovering around $118,500, close to the 50-period moving average (blue), which has acted as dynamic support since the beginning of July. The 100-period (green) and 200-period (red) moving averages are still below the current price, indicating that the overall trend remains bullish, although the upward momentum has temporarily stalled.

However, the trading volume has continued to decline during this consolidation phase, indicating a sense of hesitation in the market, with buyers lacking confidence at the current price level. A breakout above $122,000 may reignite upward momentum and open up new highs; whereas a drop below $115,700 could lead to a Bitcoin pullback to deeper support levels, possibly pointing to around the 100 moving average at $109,800.

Conclusion Bitcoin is facing a critical choice amid fluctuating consolidation, which may determine the market's direction in the coming days. On-chain data and technical analysis both indicate that Bitcoin may experience greater fluctuation, while the future direction of the market will depend on whether long positions can break through key resistance levels, or whether a deep pullback will form during the current consolidation phase.