Ethereum ETF遭遇4.22亿美元巨额流出，富达灰度大幅减持 | ETH价格关键support level面临考验

Ethereum ETF has seen a continuous net outflow of funds for three days, with a single-day withdrawal reaching 422 million USD on August 19, marking the second highest record in history. Fidelity and Grayscale led the redemptions with 156 million and 122 million USD respectively, while mainstream issuers like BlackRock also reduced their holdings. On-chain data shows that institutional Holdings of ETH still account for 5% of the supply, but if the price falls below the key support level of 4135 USD, it may trigger a deeper adjustment. This article analyzes market trends by combining capital flow and technical analysis.

ETF Capital Outflow Overview: $678 million withdrawn in three days

According to the latest data from SoSoValue, the Ethereum ETF recorded a net outflow of $422 million on August 19, marking the third consecutive trading day of capital withdrawal. Fidelity's single ETF saw an outflow of $156 million, becoming the largest contributor. Grayscale's two products combined experienced outflows of $122 million, while Bitwise faced $40 million in redemptions. Institutions such as BlackRock and Franklin Templeton also saw minor outflows ranging from $3 million to $6 million.

Issuer on-chain reduction dynamics: Institutional selling pressure emerges

Arkham on-chain Intelligence monitoring shows that as funds continue to flow out, mainstream issuers have begun to adjust their ETH Holdings. BlackRock, Fidelity, and Grayscale have recently collectively reduced their holdings of Ethereum worth $160 million, reversing the ongoing monthly accumulation trend. Currently, the total assets under management of all ETFs still amount to 6.3 million ETH (approximately $26 billion), accounting for 5% of the total supply of Ethereum.

Technical Analysis of Price: $4135 as the Watershed for Bulls and Bears

The continuous decline in ETH prices is the direct cause of ETF outflows. As of the time of writing, ETH is trading around $4180, down 1.5% in the last 24 hours, with a weekly decline extending to 10%. Technical charts indicate that the price is testing the 20-day exponential moving average (EMA) key support at $4135, which is crucial for whether the short-term trend can be maintained.

Indicator signals turning neutral, RSI pullback suggests momentum weakening

Although the 50/100/200-day EMA remains tilted upwards, short-term momentum has noticeably slowed. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has fallen back from this month's overbought zone to 54, indicating a weakening buying pressure. If it effectively breaks below the $4135 support level, the next target will point to the 50-day EMA ($3690); conversely, if it stabilizes, it is expected to retest the $4500-4700 resistance range.

Market Impact Assessment: Negative Feedback Loop of ETF Outflows and Price Declines

Currently forming a potential negative feedback loop of price decline → ETF redemptions → institutional sell-offs → exacerbated declines. Given that ETF holdings account for a high proportion of the circulating supply, continuous reductions may exert significant pressure on the market. Particular attention should be paid to traditional institutions like Grayscale that hold large amounts of GBTC, as their actions often serve as leading indicators.

Conclusion

The Ethereum ETF has seen a persistent large outflow of funds for the first time, reflecting institutional investors' increasing caution about short-term price trends. Although the long-term holdings ratio remains significant, if the key technical support is breached, it could trigger a vicious cycle of programmatic selling and ETF redemptions. Investors need to pay close attention to the effectiveness of the defense at $4135 and the on-chain operations of institutions such as Grayscale.