Bitcoin in August 2025: from the record over $124,000 to the correction—what really happened and ...

TL;DR

New ATH mid-month above $124,000, closing ~ $108,000 (approximately -6/7% MoM).

ETF USA: net outflows in August after strong summer inflows; mid-month momentum diluted.

Macro: Fed dovish at Jackson Hole, market prices in cuts by the end of the year.

Derivatives: High OI, liquidations in both directions, normalized funding.

On-chain: outflow from exchanges and accumulation by whales; liquid supply at multi-year lows.

Miners: hashrate and difficulty at all-time highs, revenues improving with BTC >100k$.

Ferragosto, FOMO and the (difficult) art of keeping calm

August 2025 begins with a market racing like a 100-meter final. Bitcoin breaks through $120,000 and touches a new all-time high shortly after. The air is thick with FOMO: mainstream headlines, social media in euphoria, charts that seem to never want to go down.

Then, as often happens in mature bull markets, profit-taking arrives. A dormant whale moves a block of coins, the market slips, derivatives amplify: Bitcoin readjusts to the 108–110k$ area.

The moral? In price discovery cycles, volatility is not a bug, it’s the rule. And in August, we saw it in 4 acts: breakout → euphoria → liquidity shock → consolidation.

The Numbers That Matter

ATH intra-month: ~124.5k$

Monthly close: ~108k$ (≈**-6/7%** compared to July)

Intramonth range: 112k–124.5k$

BTC Dominance: min ~58%, recovery to ~60% by the end of the month

USA spot ETF (August): net outflows after record inflows in July

Open Interest (BTC futures): area ~44–45 billion $ (high, but slightly decreasing post-liquidations)

Funding rate: positive mid-month → normalization / brief negative spikes during the sell-off

BTC Options (OI): increasing; implied vol compressed to multi-year lows

On-chain: outflow from exchanges → supply on CEX at 7-year lows

Mining: hashrate near all-time highs, difficulty increasing, revenues improving

ETF and Institutional Flows

First half of August: the positive vortex of ETF/ETP and corporate treasuries fuels the rally. The narrative is: “regulated demand crushes new supply”.

Second half: momentum breaks. Outflows from US spot ETFs amounting to hundreds of millions; profit-taking by tactical managers and selective risk-off awaiting regulatory clarifications.

Impact on price: when net flows turn negative, BTC loses momentum and volatility in derivatives does the rest.

Macro: the Fed suggests cuts

Jackson Hole (August 22): Powell opens up to the possibility of cuts by the end of the year.

Cross-asset effect: declining yields, softer USD, improved risk appetite; BTC rebounds, then returns to the range.

ECB: more cautious stance but still less restrictive vs 1H25.

Takeaway: the macro remains a tailwind for Bitcoin as long as the price trajectory does not surprise to the upside.

Technical Analysis: Three Key Levels

1. Resistance: 124–125k$ (intramonth all-time high).

2. Control pivot: 110–115k$ (zone where the short-term game is played).

3. Key support: 100–104k$ (includes 200D MA / volume cluster).

Indicators:

Daily RSI: from overbought >70 to ~50 (neutral).

MACD daily: bearish crossover in the second half; weekly still above the zero line.

Moving averages: price still above 50D and 200D → medium-term bull bias.

Technical setup (September):

Bullish: closures above $115k → retest $125k.

Bearish: violation 107–109k$ → magnet 100–104k$.

Neutral: congestion 108–120k$ with implied volatility in slow expansion.

Derivatives: high leverage, but healthier

Open Interest: high throughout the month, then shaken by liquidations.

Liquidations: hundreds of millions of $ in multiple key sessions.

Funding rate: from positive (euphoria) to neutral/negative during moments of fear.

Options: Increasing OI, implied vol compressed → potential volatility break-out setup in Q4.

On-chain: the supply disappears from exchanges

Exchange balance: at multi-year lows (<15% supply).

Net flows: constant outflows, with only one anomalous inflow during the whale shock.

Holder behavior: growth of addresses >100 BTC, increase in dormant supply >1 year.

MVRV: in sustainable expansion area, far from euphoria.

Mining: growing security

Hashrate: near new all-time highs.

Difficulty: in constant increase.

Miner revenues: improving thanks to BTC >100k$.

Equity miner: divergent performance between those with low costs and those who are leveraged.

Dominance and Rotation

BTC Dominance: drops towards 58%, rises to ~60% by the end of the month.

ETH: in shape, with rotation on L2 and oracles.

Reading: typical bull market phase: after BTC peaks, capital seeks beta. If the rotation turns into euphoria, it is often followed by a rebalancing on BTC.

Risks and Opportunities

Risks

Persistent inflation, less accommodative Fed.

Enforcement on exchanges or delays on ETFs.

Excess leverage, possible capitulations below $100k.

Opportunity

Clear rules on ETFs and new approvals.

Gradual cuts by central banks.

Low liquid supply and LTH/whales accumulation.

Three Scenarios for September

Bullish: break at 125k$, target 135–150k$.

Neutral: range 100–130k$, compressed volatility in Q4 reactivation.

Bearish: below 107–109k$, test 100–104k$, with risk of sliding towards 95/90k$.

Conclusion

If the mid-August ATH demonstrated the strength of the cycle, the subsequent correction cleared leverage and brought back realism. The fundamentals remain solid: ETFs, on-chain accumulation, and healthy mining. The macro environment is not hostile; on the contrary, it could become propulsive with the first Fed cuts.

The market enters September with more (healthy) doubt and less euphoria (even better). For those looking at the long term, it’s the ideal ground for more sustainable rallies.

Disclaimer: this article is for informational purposes and does not constitute financial advice. Investing in digital assets involves risks; always do your own research.