Pi coin falls below 0.35 USD, September集中解锁 and exchange reserves surge may exacerbate downward risks | Pi coin price prediction

As the native encryption of Pi Network, Pi Coin (PI) has experienced a typical "Pump and Dump" market after a brief pump, with prices dropping more than 10% in a day, falling below $0.35. Despite the recent favourable information such as the launch of the Linux Node update and Onramp Money integration, the market is facing significant selling pressure due to a surge in trading platform reserves and the concentrated unlock in September. Technical indicators show that capital outflow and bearish momentum are strengthening, indicating that the Token may face further declines, potentially testing the historical low of $0.32.

Favourable Information Hard to Overcome Selling Pressure: Pi Coin Price Falls Back Below $0.35

After the update of Pi Network Linux Node last week, the price of Pi Coin soared to 0.40 USD, but was soon met with strong selling pressure, currently falling back to around 0.34 USD, with a single-day decline of more than 10%. This rebound quickly reverted, highlighting the market's fragile confidence in the token.

Analysts are cautiously optimistic about the prospects of Pi Coin in September. In addition to the historical weakness of the crypto market's "September Curse," there are two key factors that will directly impact the price trend of Pi Coin:

1. Exchange Reserves Surge: According to Piscan data, the reserves of Pi Coin on centralized exchanges (CEXs) have reached a record 420 million coins, increasing by over 11 million coins in just two weeks. This indicates that a large number of tokens are flowing into the platform, preparing for a potential dump.

(Exchange Pi Token Supply | Source: Pi Scan)

2. Large-scale Token Unlocking: According to the monthly statistics of Piscan, over 164 million Pi tokens will be unlocked in September. The influx of newly unlocked tokens into the market, combined with the already surged exchange reserves and a daily trading volume below 100 million USD, creates significant selling pressure, making it difficult for the price to recover in the short term.

Technical Indicator Signals Red Light: Capital Outflow and Bearish Signals Overlap

(Source: TradingView)

Multiple technical indicators also depict a bearish picture. Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) indicator has fallen to a negative value of -0.06 after a brief rise, indicating that funds are flowing out at an accelerated rate and sellers have regained control.

At the same time, the Bull Bear Power (BBP) indicator has also turned negative, indicating that selling pressure exceeds buying pressure. The last time this indicator turned negative, the Pi Coin price plummeted by over 30% in a short period, falling from $0.46 to $0.32. This recent turn negative suggests similar downside risk.

On the 4-hour chart, the 20-day EMA (short-term exponential moving average) is about to fall below the 100-day EMA (long-term exponential moving average), which is commonly referred to as a "death cross" and is a strong bearish signal. This crossover suggests that selling momentum is increasing, and Pi Coin may face new local lows.

Can the progress of the ecosystem reverse the downturn?

Despite the market's lackluster performance, Pi Network is still making progress in ecosystem development, which could become a potential Favourable Information for its long-term growth.

• Onramp Money Integration: Pi Network has integrated Onramp Money, allowing Pi users in over 60 countries to purchase Pi Coin directly with local currency. This move aims to enhance the usability of the token and increase its participation in the DeFi ecosystem.
• Technical Upgrade: The newly released Linux Node, KYC upgrade, and the upcoming Protocol v23 upgrade aim to enhance the stability and security of the network infrastructure, thereby laying the foundation for broader adoption.

Currently, the price of Pi Coin is hovering around the key support level of 0.34 USD. If this support level is lost, the price could quickly fall to the August low of 0.32 USD, or even lower. Unless the bulls can strongly reclaim 0.36 USD and further break through the resistance level of 0.38 USD, the short-term bearish risk will be hard to eliminate.

Conclusion

Pi Coin is currently at a crossroads of "breakout or collapse." Despite favourable information such as the updates to Linux Node and the integration of Onramp Money bringing positive technical advancements to the network, these developments have not yet been able to offset the massive selling pressure brought on by the large token unlocks and surge in exchange reserves in September.

The collective bearish signals from the technical indicators have further exacerbated the market's pessimism. The brief rebound of PI has proven to be unsustainable, and the market seems to be preparing for further declines. For investors, the current situation is fraught with uncertainty, and the future of PI will depend on whether it can successfully digest the selling pressure and ultimately convert the technical upgrades into actual market demand and price support.