QCP Capital: Bitcoin is in a range-bound fluctuation, and the short positions in the US dollar may trigger the risk of dumping of encryption assets.

On July 30, QCP Capital stated in an official post that "Bitcoin is still fluctuating within a narrow range and struggles to effectively break through the $120,000 mark, while sustained buying around $116,000 continues to provide support. Ethereum's rise also shows insufficient momentum as it approaches the psychological level of $4,000, with momentum indicators gradually turning neutral. From a structural perspective, the continuous inflow of institutional funds and favourable regulatory progress indicate that the possibility of hitting new highs in the medium term remains significant. However, caution is still needed. Price movements have shown limited reactions to a series of favourable news, including the U.S. passing supportive regulatory laws for encryption and the positive progress of Spot and derivative ETFs. Historically, when the market is flooded with positive news for long positions but prices stagnate, it often signals short-term weakness. CFTC data shows that traders hold extremely short positions on USD/JPY, which is not only market consensus but also faces increased funding costs over time. We believe the market is increasingly exposed to risks of dollar short squeezes, which could force a risk-averse dumping of stocks, emerging markets, and crypto assets. Next, we are focusing on the upcoming macro data, especially U.S. inflation and employment data, which will determine the direction for the third quarter. Tariff impacts will transmit to corporate profits and consumer prices, and the third quarter could become a significant turning point. All eyes are on the Fed. We expect the July FOMC to maintain interest rates unchanged, with decision-makers likely to emphasize data-dependent decisions ahead of the crucial September meeting, while the probability of a rate cut in September remains delicately balanced."