In September #打榜优质内容# , what factors are tipping the balance of encryption currency?

In the world of cryptocurrency, price fluctuations are like turbulent waves, while macroeconomic data and policies are the immense forces pulling the tides beneath the surface.
As we enter September 2025, a series of macro variables are influencing market nerves with unprecedented intensity, and the sensitivity of Bitcoin and other digital assets to economic indicators and policy signals is rising to historical highs.
1 Non-Farm Payrolls: The Core Indicator of Economic Health
On September 5th, the U.S. non-farm payroll data for August will be released. This report is not only a key indicator of labor market health but is also regarded as a crucial barometer for the direction of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy.
A previous Reuters survey showed that economists predicted an increase of 75,000 non-farm jobs in August, but actual data is often full of variables, and for this reason, the market is holding its breath.
Non-farm data is closely tied to the Federal Reserve's monetary policy.
If employment data is strong and far exceeds expectations, it may suggest an overheating economy, and the Federal Reserve may maintain current interest rates or even raise them to curb inflation. Such signals usually trigger a pullback in the encryption market, as a high interest rate environment drives funds toward traditional fixed-income markets.
On the contrary, if the data is weak, new job creation falls short of expectations, or the unemployment rate rises, it will strengthen the market's expectations for interest rate cuts. Lowering interest rates not only reduces the cost of funds and enhances market liquidity, but it may also drive funds into Bitcoin and other encryption assets, recreating the bullish market trend spurred by the loose monetary policies of 2020-2021.
2 CPI Data: Key Readings on Inflation Trends
Following closely, the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) for August, released on September 11, became another major market catalyst.
Data shows that the CPI in August rose by 2.5% year-on-year, marking a decline for the fifth consecutive month and reaching a new low since February 2021.
Increased by 0.2% month-on-month, in line with expectations;
Core CPI rose by 3.2% year-on-year and increased by 0.3% month-on-month, slightly higher than the previous value.
The dark blue solid line in the chart represents the Consumer Price Index (CPI) trend. The light blue dashed line represents the core CPI trend.
CPI, as the core measure of inflation, directly affects the market's expectations regarding Bitcoin's anti-inflation properties.
If the CPI continues to rise and the purchasing power of fiat currency declines, investors may increase their allocation to Bitcoin to hedge against inflation risks, thereby driving up its price.
If the CPI continues to decline as it currently is, the inflation pressure may ease, which could weaken the appeal of Bitcoin's safe-haven attributes. More importantly, the CPI readings directly influence the Federal Reserve's policy path—sustained low inflation may prompt the Fed to increase interest rate cuts, indirectly providing liquidity support to the encryption market.
3 Federal Reserve Interest Rate Decision: A Defining Moment for Market Direction
The Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting scheduled for September 17-18 is undoubtedly the highest magnitude event this month that will determine the direction of encryption market sentiment. There is significant disagreement in the market regarding whether to lower interest rates, with different expectations leading to intense competition between the derivatives and spot markets.
If the Federal Reserve decides to cut interest rates, it will send a clear signal of monetary easing. Low interest rates not only reduce borrowing costs but may also weaken the yield attractiveness of traditional assets, prompting investors to seek higher returns in risk assets, with encryption currencies often being the beneficiaries of capital inflows.
If the Federal Reserve chooses to stand pat or even releases hawkish signals, the encryption market may face outflow pressure. In a high interest rate environment, funds are more likely to flow back to interest-bearing assets like government bonds, leading to a decrease in risk appetite, which poses short-term negative effects on assets like Bitcoin.

Grasping market rhythm in macro variations
The current cryptocurrency market is closely linked to traditional macro factors, such as non-farm payrolls, CPI, and Federal Reserve monetary policy... The release of each piece of data and each adjustment of policy can create huge waves in the crypto market. If investors can discern direction amidst the tumult of data releases and policy decisions, they are more likely to seize investment opportunities and avoid potential risks during the waves.
In this September, dominated by a dual variation of data and policy, staying alert and responding flexibly is the key to traversing the cycle.