根據當前期權市場的背景，關於比特幣價格的有一個熊市假說。
然而，這是一種假設，基於對一個實際上非常復雜的市場的解釋，這種解釋可能有些過於簡單，因此有必要徹底分析以便理解。

熊市

基於當前期權市場的背景，關於比特幣價格存在一種看跌假設。

然而，這是一種基於對一個實際上非常復雜的市場的解讀而提出的假設，這種解讀可能有些過於簡單，因此有必要深入分析以了解其可信度如何。

然而，與此同時，加密市場的情緒仍然略顯負面，即使這可能無關緊要。

比特幣上的選項

在金融市場上，有對交易資產的看跌或看漲期權。

看跌期權是在期權到期之前以預定價格出售資產的權利。看漲期權則是相同的概念，但用於購買。

一些加密期權市場是公開的，因此可以分析有多少個賣出期權和多少個買入期權在進行中。

全球最大的加密期權市場之一是Deribit，通常被用作該特定領域分析的參考。

目前，在Deribit上，認購期權的未平倉合約遠高於認沽期權。

然而，如果僅考慮到周五到期的期權的認沽認購比的趨勢，那麼討論就會有所不同。

這涉及到140億美元的期權到期，這意味着在星期五早上之後，它們將無法再被行使

問題是，周五到期的比特幣期權的認沽-認購比率在到期前有所上升，表明對認沽期權的興趣日益增加。

比特幣價格的熊市假說源於哪裏？

一般來說，認購-認沽比率的增加被解讀爲可能的看跌信號，但這是一種表面的解讀。

此看跌-看漲未平倉合約比率指的是在特定時刻活躍的看跌合約與活躍的看漲合約之間的比率

目前，看漲期權的未平倉合約仍然明顯高於看跌期權，但具體到周五到期的比特幣期權，在到期前的幾天內，看跌期權與看漲期權的比例明顯增加。這清楚地表明了對看跌期權的傾向增加，而看跌期權恰恰是用作對下行風險的保護，以至於通常被解讀爲熊市情緒的指示。

然而，實際上，情況更加復雜

實際上，這一特定的增長部分是由於所謂的“流動性支持的認沽期權”。在這種情況下，這不僅僅是對熊市風險的保險，而是一種收益生成和比特幣積累的策略。

該策略涉及銷售看跌期權，但同時持有穩定幣以便在價格下跌時購買比特幣，以防買方決定以更高的預定價格行使出售權。

這樣的策略還允許通過出售認沽期權來收取溢價，這代表了一種收益，並有可能積累比特幣，如果認沽期權的買方行使該期權。

好吧，Deribit亞洲區業務發展的負責人Lin Chen表示，盡管看跌/看漲比率已上升至0.72，較2024年的0.5略高，但平台上的看跌期權通常是精確地以現金擔保的看跌期權結構。

陳還明確指出，大約20%的到期期權是“價內(盈利)”，這意味着大量市場參與者持有行使價格低於當前比特幣現貨市場價格(約$106,000)。

在這種情況下，熊市假設大約是102,000$

波動性

考慮到這一切，經典的熊市解讀可能也會被證明過於膚淺，盡管在理論上它也可能是正確的。

陳本人也補充說，期權買家在這個週期表現良好，這表明也可能會有一些獲利了結。

特別是，處於盈利狀態的(ITM)看漲期權的持有者可能會選擇兌現利潤，或者在到期日臨近時對沖他們的頭寸。

所有這些至少可能增加波動性，而這個第二個假設並沒有指明方向，顯得更加穩固。

陳表示：

“鑑於這是一個重要的季度到期，我們預計與該事件相關的波動性會更大。”

應該明確的是，在現實中，通常大多數期權是注定到期而不被行使的，這一點通過300美元的看漲期權擁有最高的未平倉合約量得以體現，因爲交易者可能希望在上半年的價格大幅漲。

因此，最終，比特幣的價格仍可能在$100,000到$105,000之間波動，預計會有波動的交易和輕微的牛市趨勢，隨着截止日期的臨近。

實際上，最新的資金流動似乎普遍中性，交易者主要在約$105,000的價格出售看漲期權，而在約$100,000的價格出售看跌期權。

There is a bear hypothesis on the price of Bitcoin, based on the current context of the options market 
However, it is a hypothesis based on an interpretation that might be a bit too simplistic of a market that is actually very complex, so it is necessary to analyze it thoroughly to understand

There is a bear hypothesis on the price of Bitcoin, based on the current context of the options market 

However, it is a hypothesis based on an interpretation that might be a bit too simplistic of a market that is actually very complex, so it is necessary to analyze it thoroughly to understand how credible it is 

At the same time, however, the sentiment in the crypto market remains slightly negative, even if probably irrelevant 

The options on Bitcoin

On the financial markets, there are put or call options on the assets that are traded 

A put option is the right to sell an asset at a predetermined price before the expiration of the option itself. A call option is the same thing, but in purchase 

Some crypto options markets are public, so it is possible to analyze how many put options and how many call options are in place.

One of the largest crypto options markets in the world is Deribit, often used as a reference for analyses in this specific field.

Currently, on Deribit, the open interest on call options is much higher compared to put options.

However, the discussion changes if only the trend of the put-call ratio of the options expiring on Friday is taken into consideration 

It concerns 14 billion dollars of options expiring, meaning that after Friday morning they can no longer be exercised 

The problem is that the put-call ratio of options on Bitcoin expiring on Friday has increased just ahead of the expiration, indicating a growing interest in put options.

Where does the bear hypothesis on the price of Bitcoin originate?

Generally, an increase in the put-call ratio is interpreted as a possible bear sign, but it is a superficial interpretation 

This put-call open interest ratio refers to the ratio between active put contracts and active call contracts at a given moment 

Currently, the open interest on call options is still significantly higher compared to that on put options, but specifically regarding Bitcoin options expiring on Friday, there has been a clear increase in the put-call ratio in the last few days before expiration. This clearly indicates an increase in the propensity towards put options, which are used precisely as protection against downside risks, so much so that it is commonly interpreted as indicative of a bear market sentiment.

In reality, however, the situation is more complex 

In fact, this specific increase is partly due to the so-called “liquidity-backed put options.” In this case, it is not about insurance against bear risks, but a strategy for yield generation and accumulation of BTC.

This strategy involves the sale of put options, but with the simultaneous holding of stablecoins to purchase BTC in case prices fall and the buyer decides to exercise the right to sell at the higher predetermined price.

Such a strategy also allows for collecting a premium through the sale of the put option, which represents a yield with a potential accumulation of BTC, if the buyer of the put option exercises the option.

Well, the head of business development for Asia at Deribit, Lin Chen, stated that although the put/call ratio has risen to 0.72, compared to just over 0.5 in 2024, the put options on the platform are often structured precisely as cash-secured puts.

Chen also specified that about 20% of the calls expiring are “in-the-money (in profit)”, and this would mean that a large number of market participants hold calls with strikes lower than the current BTC spot market rate (about $106,000).

The bearish hypothesis in this case would be about 102,000$ 

Volatility

In light of all this, the classic bear interpretation might also prove to be excessively superficial, although in theory it might also be correct 

Chen himself then also added that call option buyers have had good performance in this cycle, and this indicates that there could also be some profit-taking 

In particular, the holders of in-the-money (ITM) call options might choose to cash in the profits, or to cover their positions as the expiration approaches.

All this could at least increase volatility, and this second hypothesis, which does not indicate the direction, appears decidedly more solid 

Chen stated: 

“Given that it is an important quarterly expiration, we anticipate greater volatility in relation to the event”.

It should still be specified that in reality, often the majority of calls are destined to expire without being exercised, and this is highlighted by the fact that the 300-dollar call has the highest open interest because traders were probably hoping for a much greater price increase in the first half of the year.

In the end, therefore, the price of Bitcoin could still continue to fluctuate within a range between $100,000 and $105,000, with expectations of volatile trading and a slight bull trend as the deadline approaches.

In reality, the latest flows actually seem to be generally neutral, with traders primarily selling call options at around $105,000 and put options at around $100,000.

Bitcoin: do the options suggest a bear hypothesis?

比特幣：這些選擇是否暗示了一個熊市假設？

Taproot資產代表了閃電網絡的新前沿，提供了比特幣主網的多資產協議。隨着Lightning Labs發布v0.6版本，交易的可能性擴大，爲穩定幣和低成本即時支付開闢了創新場景。

TAPROOT

MULTI

主網

穩定幣

Taproot Assets代表了閃電網絡的新前沿，提供了一個在比特幣主網上的多資產協議。隨着Lightning Labs發布v0.6版本，交易的可能性擴展，開啓了穩定幣和低成本即時支付的創新場景，覆蓋全球。

Lightning Labs與Taproot資產的演變：一種新的多資產範式

通過 Taproot Assets v0.6，Lightning Labs 鞏固了其作爲比特幣可擴展和先進解決方案開發先鋒的地位。多資產功能的加入將閃電網絡轉變爲一個能夠管理衆多數字資產的系統，爲整個加密生態系統開闢了新的視角。

新的協議允許鑄造數字資產，包括支持穩定幣，得益於閃電基礎設施，現在可以立即轉移並降低費用。因此，比特幣中微支付典型的速度和成本效益的優勢現在擴展到廣泛的代幣和數字貨幣。

閃電網絡上的穩定幣：瞬時性和降低的費用

Taproot Assets v0.6 帶來的最具影響力的創新之一是關於穩定幣的發行和管理。得益於 Tether 與 USDT 代幣的集成，用戶現在可以利用區塊鏈的鏈上功能和閃電網絡的速度進行國際轉帳。

這種協同作用使得全球支付能夠以最低的費用和前所未有的速度進行，這是滿足數字市場和去中心化金融中活躍的用戶和企業需求的基本要素。此外，這些創新確保了與傳統標準相比的透明度、安全性和卓越的可追溯性，鞏固了穩定幣在現代數字經濟中的角色。

可用性和安全性的改進：新的 group\_key 標識符

在Taproot Assets v0.6中引入的最重要的技術創新之一是新的group\_key標識符，旨在確保在可替代資產操作中的更大簡便性。該機制允許將具有相同特徵的代幣進行關聯和分組，從而促進更直觀和高效的用戶體驗。

除了簡化不同投資組合和平台之間資產的管理之外，此功能通過設計增強了安全性。特別是，它防止了選擇資產時可能出現的錯誤，並提高了跨錢包的兼容性，這是在國際範圍內日益增長的採用背景下的基本要素。

報價協議：不同幣種之間的無縫轉換

對請求報價 (RFQ) 協議的改進代表了 Taproot 資產發展路徑上的又一個裏程碑。通過該協議，用戶和操作員可以在不同數字貨幣之間進行順暢轉換，利用去中心化環境進行快速高效的交易。

請求和報價過程變得自動化：用戶選擇發送貨幣和接收貨幣，獲得實時轉換，始終保持低成本。該系統消除了衆多中間步驟，顯著簡化了個人和企業的操作。

比特幣上的多幣種支付：爲用戶和企業帶來的創新

由於RFQ協議的增強，閃電網絡被配置爲真正的去中心化交易所平台。用戶能夠發送和接收不同的數字貨幣，而無需進行物理轉換或中介。

該功能滿足了全球化經濟日益增長的需求，打破了傳統的障礙，例如交易所成本和跨境操作的緩慢。因此，Taproot資產的採用代表了向金融包容性邁出的決定性一步，特別是對於銀行服務不足的市場或支付密集型系統。

閃電網絡作爲數字貨幣未來的中心

Lightning Labs的目標不僅限於支付效率，還旨在將Lightning網路轉變爲管理數字資產的去中心化中心，打破加密貨幣與穩定幣之間的壁壘。

簡化多類型資產的管理

交易中的速度和經濟可持續性

得益於協議更新，更加安全

跨鏈操作和錢包互操作性

所有這些觀點都有助於建立一個能夠適應新市場需求的穩固技術標準，保持比特幣作爲數字交易支柱的中心地位。

Taproot資產的未來前景和全球採用

Taproot Assets v0.6 帶來的實現爲更廣泛的國際採用奠定了基礎。將穩定幣和其他代幣直接集成到閃電網絡的可能性將使用戶、公司和金融服務提供商更容易利用加密貨幣的所有優勢，而不犧牲便利性或價值穩定性。

Lightning Labs 因此繼續其擴展比特幣生態系統的旅程，專注於一個互操作、可靠且多功能的結構，承諾將從根本上改變全球數字交易和資產管理的方法。

革命性閃電：效率、安全和去中心化交易所

Taproot Assets v0.6 的發布標志着歷史性進步，使閃電網絡具備了安全且低成本的多資產即時轉帳能力。像泰達幣這樣的穩定幣的整合以及數字貨幣之間無縫轉換的擴展，使去中心化交易所平台的夢想變得愈發接近。

此次更新不僅增強了用戶體驗和安全性，還徹底改變了閃電網絡，使其成爲數字經濟的參考基礎設施。隨着每一次新版本的發布，Lightning Labs 鞏固了創新與可及性的結合，爲未來打下基礎，在這個未來中，比特幣上的數字交易將真正實現全球化和互操作性。

採用 Taproot 資產意味着作爲關鍵參與者進入去中心化經濟時代，在這個時代中，效率、安全性和靈活性成爲常態。希望在數字金融領域處於前沿的人士應仔細考慮 v0.6 更新所帶來的新機遇，並關注即將到來的閃電網絡的演變。

Taproot Assets represents the new frontier of the Lightning Network, offering a multi-asset protocol on the Bitcoin mainnet. With the release of version v0.6 by Lightning Labs, the possibilities for exchange expand, opening innovative scenarios for stablecoin and low-cost instant payments on a

Taproot Assets represents the new frontier of the Lightning Network, offering a multi-asset protocol on the Bitcoin mainnet. With the release of version v0.6 by Lightning Labs, the possibilities for exchange expand, opening innovative scenarios for stablecoin and low-cost instant payments on a global scale.

Lightning Labs and the evolution of Taproot Assets: a new multi-asset paradigm

With Taproot Assets v0.6, Lightning Labs consolidates its position as a pioneer in the development of scalable and advanced solutions for Bitcoin. The addition of the multi-asset functionality transforms the Lightning Network into a system capable of managing numerous digital assets, opening new perspectives for the entire cryptographic ecosystem.

The new protocol allows for the minting of digital assets, including support for stablecoin, which can now be transferred immediately and with reduced fees thanks to the Lightning infrastructure. Consequently, the benefits of speed and cost-effectiveness typical of micropayments in Bitcoin now extend to a wide range of tokens and digital currencies.

Stablecoin on Lightning Network: instantaneity and reduced fees

One of the most impactful innovations brought by Taproot Assets v0.6 concerns the issuance and management of stablecoin. Thanks to the integration of Tether with the USDT token, users can now leverage both the on-chain blockchain and the speed of the Lightning Network for their international transfers.

This synergy enables global payments with minimized fees and unprecedented speed, fundamental elements to meet the demands of users and businesses active in digital markets and decentralized finance. Furthermore, the innovations ensure transparency, security, and superior traceability compared to traditional standards, consolidating the role of stablecoins in the modern digital economy.

Improvements to usability and security: the new group\_key identifier

Among the most significant technical innovations introduced with Taproot Assets v0.6 is the new group\_key identifier, designed to ensure greater simplicity in operations with fungible assets. This mechanism allows for the association and grouping of tokens with the same characteristics, promoting a more intuitive and efficient user experience.

In addition to simplifying the management of assets between different portfolios and platforms, this feature strengthens safety by design. In particular, it prevents possible errors in the selection of assets and improves compatibility across-wallet, essential elements in a context of growing adoption on an international scale.

Request for Quote Protocol: seamless conversions between different currencies

The addition of improvements to the Request for Quote (RFQ) protocol represents another milestone in the evolutionary path of Taproot Assets. Through this protocol, users and operators can manage smooth conversions between different digital currencies, leveraging a decentralized environment for fast and efficient exchanges.

The request and quotation process becomes automatic: the user selects the sending currency and the receiving currency, obtaining a real-time conversion, always with low costs. This system eliminates numerous intermediate steps, significantly streamlining operations for both individuals and businesses.

Multi-currency payments on Bitcoin: innovation for users and businesses

Thanks to the enhancement of the RFQ protocol, the Lightning Network is configured as a true decentralized exchange platform. Users gain the ability to send and receive different digital currencies without the need for physical conversions or intermediaries.

This feature addresses the growing needs of a globalized economy, breaking down traditional barriers such as exchange costs and slowness in cross-border operations. The adoption of Taproot Assets therefore represents a decisive push towards financial inclusion, particularly for underbanked markets or payment-intensive systems.

Lightning Network as a hub for the future of digital currencies

The goal of Lightning Labs is not limited to payment efficiency, but aims to transform the Lightning network into a decentralized hub for managing digital assets, breaking down the barriers between cryptocurrencies and stablecoins.

Simplified management of multi-type assets

Speed and economic sustainability in transactions

Greater security thanks to protocol updates

Cross-chain operations and wallet interoperability

All these points contribute to the creation of a solid technological standard adaptable to new market demands, maintaining the centrality of Bitcoin as the backbone of digital transactions.

Future prospects and global adoption of Taproot Assets

The implementations brought by Taproot Assets v0.6 lay the foundations for a broader international adoption. The possibility of integrating stablecoin and other tokens directly into the Lightning network will make it easier for users, companies, and financial providers to leverage all the advantages of cryptocurrencies, without sacrificing convenience or value stability.

Lightning Labs thus continues its journey to expand the Bitcoin ecosystem, focusing on an interoperable, reliable, and versatile structure that promises to radically change the approach to digital transactions and asset management worldwide.

Revolution Lightning: efficiency, security, and decentralized exchange

The announcement of Taproot Assets v0.6 marks a historic advancement, granting the Lightning Network the capability of secure and low-cost multi-asset instant transfer. The integration of stablecoins like Tether and the expansion of seamless conversions between digital currencies bring the dream of a decentralized exchange platform ever closer.

This update not only enhances user experience and security, but radically transforms the Lightning Network, making it a reference infrastructure for the digital economy. With each new release, Lightning Labs consolidates the combination of innovation and accessibility, laying the foundations for a future in which digital transactions on Bitcoin are truly global and interoperable.

Adopting Taproot Assets means entering as key players in the era of the decentralized economy, where efficiency, security, and flexibility become the norm. Those who wish to be at the forefront of the digital financial sector should carefully consider the new opportunities offered by the v0.6 update, already looking at the upcoming evolutions of the Lightning Network.

Taproot Assets revolutionizes Lightning Network: stablecoin and multi-asset on Bitcoin

Taproot Assets 革新了閃電網絡：比特幣上的穩定幣和多資產

近日，投資者的關注集中在金融市場的兩個主角上：比特幣和刀/美元指數。
美元指數，衡量美元對一籃子國際貨幣的強度，最近已跌破98點的閾值。

OVER

指數

貨幣

近期，投資者的關注點集中在金融市場的兩個主角上：比特幣和刀/美元指數。

美元指數，衡量美元對一籃子國際貨幣的強度，最近已跌破98點的閾值

這一動向引發了分析師和交易者之間的辯論，尤其是關於所謂比特幣的“公允價值”。

根據一些估計，在這些水平下，美元指數比特幣的公允價值甚至會在110,000刀左右。

然而，市場似乎表現出一定的謹慎，或許是因爲並非所有人都相信美元指數在短期內能保持如此低的水平。

美元指數低於98點：對比特幣的影響

美元指數 (DXY) 是評估美元相對於其他貨幣（如歐元、日元和英鎊）相對強度的關鍵指標。跌破 98 點標志着美元的疲軟階段，對許多資產類別（包括比特幣）產生直接影響。

弱勢美元與比特幣等替代資產增長之間的關聯現在已被充分記錄

當美元貶值時，許多投資者尋求避風港，轉向被視爲“價值儲存”的資產，而比特幣在這種情況下，成爲主要的替代品之一。

最近美元指數的下跌因此激發了對比特幣大幅漲的預期，一些分析師認爲其公允價值超過100,000刀。

比特幣的公平價值：分析與展望

公允價值的概念代表了資產應該基於某些經濟和金融參數所具有的理論價格。在比特幣的情況下，最具影響力的元素之一恰恰是美元指數的趨勢。

隨着美元指數低於98點，預測表明比特幣的公允價值可能達到110,000刀。

然而，這一評估與市場現實發生了衝突，市場仍然保持謹慎。運營商確實似乎在考慮到刀/美元指數在短期內可能回升至98點以上的可能性，從而減緩比特幣衝向新高的步伐。市場上感受到的不確定性氣候表明，至少在現在，比特幣的實際價格可能仍低於其理論價值。

市場的懷疑：該期待什麼

盡管樂觀的估計存在，市場仍然對美元指數能否長期保持如此低的水平表示懷疑。許多投資者擔心美元的反彈，這可能會使美元指數重回98點以上，並降低對比特幣的增長預期。這種不確定性反映在當前價格上，這些價格尚未完全反映分析師所建議的理論潛力。

除了美元指數，幾個因素也促使市場波動性保持在高位。聯準會的貨幣政策、地緣政治緊張局勢以及全球宏觀經濟動態在決定美元強度及因此比特幣趨勢方面起着基礎性作用。

在這種情況下，許多投資者更傾向於採取謹慎的態度，等待市場在未來幾周將採取的方向的更明確信號。美元指數在短期內可能漲的可能性代表了一個不能被低估的風險因素。

比特幣作爲避風港資產：一種日益增長的趨勢

盡管存在不確定性，但在美元疲軟時期將比特幣視爲避風港資產的趨勢似乎注定會增強。機構和私人投資者對比特幣的日益採用確認了其在多元化投資組合中日益重要的角色。

最近美元指數的下跌重新點燃了人們對比特幣的興趣，推動了對新牛市階段的期望。然而，操作者的謹慎表明，朝着110,000刀的合理價值的道路可能比預期的更長且更復雜。

比特幣：機遇與風險之間

比特幣與美元指數之間的關係仍然是目前最熱門的話題之一。美元指數跌破98點爲比特幣開闢了有趣的場景，公允價值估計爲110,000刀

然而，市場仍然表現出謹慎，考慮到美元指數回升至98點以上的可能性，並在短期前景上保持一定的謹慎。

在一個以波動性和不確定性爲特徵的背景下，比特幣仍然確認自己是最受關注和討論的資產之一，隨時準備在美元進一步疲軟的跡象出現時抓住新的機會。

與此同時，投資者仍在等待事態的發展，他們意識到通往新紀錄的道路可能仍然充滿障礙，但也充滿了巨大潛力。

In recent days, the attention of investors has focused on two protagonists of the financial markets: bitcoin and the Dollar Index 
The Dollar Index, which measures the strength of the US dollar against a basket of international currencies, has recently fallen below the threshold of 98 points

In recent days, the attention of investors has focused on two protagonists of the financial markets: bitcoin and the Dollar Index 

The Dollar Index, which measures the strength of the US dollar against a basket of international currencies, has recently fallen below the threshold of 98 points 

This movement has sparked the debate among analysts and traders, especially in relation to the so-called “fair value” of bitcoin.

According to some estimates, with the Dollar Index at these levels, the fair value of bitcoin would even be around 110,000 dollars 

However, the market seems to show a certain caution, perhaps because not everyone is convinced that the Dollar Index can remain so low in the short term.

Dollar Index below 98 points: implications for Bitcoin

The Dollar Index (DXY) represents a key indicator for assessing the relative strength of the dollar compared to other currencies such as the euro, yen, and pound. A drop below 98 points signals a phase of weakness for the American currency, with immediate repercussions on many asset classes, including bitcoin.

The correlation between a weak dollar and the growth of alternative assets like bitcoin is now well documented 

When the dollar loses ground, many investors seek refuge in assets perceived as “store of value,” and bitcoin, in this context, emerges as one of the main alternatives 

The recent decline of the Dollar Index has therefore fueled expectations of a significant rise for bitcoin, with some analysts identifying a fair value above 100,000 dollars.

The Fair Value of Bitcoin: analysis and perspectives

The concept of fair value represents the theoretical price that an asset should have based on certain economic and financial parameters. In the case of bitcoin, one of the most influential elements is precisely the trend of the Dollar Index 

With the Dollar Index below 98 points, the projections indicate a fair value of bitcoin that could reach 110,000 dollars.

This assessment, however, clashes with a market reality that is still cautious. The operators indeed seem to price in the possibility that the Dollar Index could return above 98 points in the short term, thus slowing down bitcoin’s run towards new highs. The climate of uncertainty that is felt in the markets suggests that, at least for now, the actual price of bitcoin could remain below its theoretical value.

Skepticism of the markets: what to expect

Despite the optimistic estimates, the market still appears skeptical about the possibility that the Dollar Index will remain so low for long. Many investors fear a rebound of the dollar, which could bring the Dollar Index back above 98 points and scale down growth expectations for bitcoin. This uncertainty is reflected in the current prices, which do not yet fully reflect the theoretical potential suggested by analysts.

In addition to the Dollar Index, several factors contribute to keeping volatility high in the markets. The monetary policies of the Federal Reserve, geopolitical tensions, and global macroeconomic dynamics play a fundamental role in determining the strength of the dollar and, consequently, the trend of bitcoin.

In this scenario, many investors prefer to adopt a cautious approach, waiting for clearer signals on the direction the markets will take in the coming weeks. The possibility that the Dollar Index may rise in the short term represents a risk element that cannot be underestimated.

Bitcoin as a safe-haven asset: a growing trend

Despite the uncertainties, the trend of considering bitcoin as a safe-haven asset during periods of dollar weakness seems destined to strengthen. The growing adoption of bitcoin by institutional and private investors confirms its increasingly central role within diversified portfolios.

The recent drop in the Dollar Index has reignited interest in bitcoin, fueling expectations of a new bull phase. However, the caution of the operators suggests that the path towards the fair value of 110,000 dollars could be longer and more complex than expected.

Bitcoin: between opportunities and risks

The relationship between bitcoin and Dollar Index remains one of the hottest topics at the moment. The drop of the Dollar Index below 98 points has opened interesting scenarios for bitcoin, with a fair value estimated at 110,000 dollars 

However, the market continues to show caution, pricing in the possibility of a return of the Dollar Index above 98 points and maintaining a certain prudence on the short-term outlook.

In a context characterized by volatility and uncertainty, bitcoin still confirms itself as one of the most observed and discussed assets, ready to seize new opportunities in case of further signs of weakness of the dollar 

The investors, meanwhile, remain waiting for developments, aware that the path towards new records could still be full of obstacles, but also of great potential.

Bitcoin and Dollar Index: the Fair Value over 100,000 dollars

比特幣和刀指數：公允價值超過100,000刀

對於旨在長期保護數字資產的個人而言，選擇合適的加密錢包是一個關鍵步驟。長期持有者——通常被稱爲“HODLers”——往往偏好提供安全性和便利性的存儲解決方案。隨着加密貨幣市場的持續發展，

加密

加密貨幣

對於旨在長期保護數字資產的個人來說，選擇合適的加密錢包是至關重要的一步。長期持有者（通常被稱爲“HODLers”）傾向於選擇既安全又方便的存儲解決方案。隨着加密貨幣領域的不斷發展，了解這些投資者爲何傾向於特定錢包可以揭示整個行業的最佳實踐。這一決定在私鑰管理、資產保護，甚至參與 NFT 和 DeFi 等區塊鏈創新方面具有重要意義。

什麼是加密錢包，它是如何運作的？

加密錢包是一種數字工具，旨在以安全的方式存儲、管理加密貨幣和代幣並與之交互。與普遍的看法相反，錢包並不實際容納硬幣;相反，它們生成並安全地存儲授權區塊鏈交易所需的私鑰。這種區別突出了加密錢包的核心作用：作爲關鍵訪問憑證的保護者，而不是實際數字貨幣的容器。

任何錢包的基本操作涉及生成兩個元素——一個公鑰地址和一個私鑰。當發送或接收資金時，錢包使用這些信息廣播交易。只有擁有私鑰才能修改帳戶餘額，這就是爲什麼安全的密鑰存儲對優先考慮強大安全標準的長期投資者至關重要。

加密錢包的類型：滿足不同需求的多樣選擇

市場上有幾種類型的錢包，每種錢包都針對安全性、可訪問性和可用性的不同需求量身定制。對於那些長期持有投資的人來說，了解這些差異對於就密鑰存儲和保護資產免受威脅做出明智的選擇至關重要。

熱錢包：它們有什麼不同？

熱錢包在連接互聯網的情況下運行，包括用於智能手機、瀏覽器或桌面的軟件應用程序。它們的主要優勢在於快速訪問。當頻繁的交易（如購買、出售或交換加密貨幣）成爲優先事項時，熱錢包因其速度和易用性而表現出色。

這種便利伴隨着一個權衡：持續的在線連接使熱錢包更容易受到黑客攻擊和惡意軟件的攻擊。盡管有些錢包採用了額外的加密措施，但經驗豐富的持有者通常會將熱錢包保留用於較小的日常金額，因爲他們認識到與更安全的替代方案相比，它們的風險更高。

冷錢包和硬體錢包：強調離線保護

冷錢包一般是指與互聯網保持斷開連接的解決方案，從而降低了網路威脅的曝光。例如，紙質備份或隔離的計算機。然而，有一個關鍵的區別——硬體錢包代表一個專門的類別。與基本的冷錢包不同，硬體錢包在配備安全芯片的專用設備內生成和存儲私鑰。

此結構可確保敏感數據永遠不會離開受保護的環境，即使在連接到支持 Internet 的應用程序進行交易籤名時也是如此。Ledger 就是一個很好的例子，這是一款專門設計用於以最高效率離線創建和存儲密鑰的硬體錢包，不要與通用的冷存儲設備混淆。

托管錢包與自托管錢包：誰掌控?

對於任何持有者來說，一個重要的決定是選擇托管錢包還是自托管錢包。托管服務要求用戶信任第三方（例如交易所或金融提供商）使用他們的私鑰。雖然這些平台通常提供輕鬆的恢復和集成功能，但這是以犧牲真正的所有權和自主性爲代價的。

相對而言，自我保管意味着對密鑰存儲的獨立控制。長期持有者大多數更喜歡這種方式，因爲它與“不是你的密鑰，就不是你的幣”的理念相一致，在管理數字資產時增強了責任感和操作獨立性。

爲什麼長期持有者信任硬體錢包？

鑑於選擇範圍廣泛，是什麼促使長期規劃者始終如一地選擇硬體錢包？答案在於將高級安全性、實用性和廣泛功能獨特地融合在一起，所有這些都是在不影響安全性的情況下實現的。

無與倫比的安全性用於存儲和管理數字資產

硬體錢包因其能夠將私鑰完全與在線威脅隔離而成爲安全自我保管的黃金標準。與不斷面臨互聯網流量的錢包不同，硬體錢包消除了大多數導致泄露和盜竊的攻擊向量。像Ledger這樣的設備在在線操作和機密數據之間保持嚴格的隔離，利用先進的芯片進行加密任務。

該設計顯著降低了攻擊的潛在風險。私鑰從不共享或導出，形成了抵御網絡釣魚詐騙和計算機病毒的強大屏障。這種強大的保護措施直接吸引了決心在長期內保護其積累的數字資產的投資者。

NFT支持、去中心化金融整合和Web3兼容性

保護傳統加密貨幣只是問題的一部分。越來越多的長期持有者正在探索NFT、去中心化金融和更廣泛的Web3世界中的新機會。並不是所有的錢包都能爲這些快速變化的領域提供可靠的支持。能夠管理NFT的硬體錢包允許與藝術、收藏品和遊戲資產進行無縫互動，同時保持安全性不受影響。

除了簡單的轉帳之外，現代硬體錢包還與去中心化金融協議順利集成，使用戶能夠直接從他們的設備質押、借出或交換代幣。這些功能完全符合 Web3 不斷擴大的願景，其中所有權和自主權跨越多個區塊鏈——所有這些都以安全便捷的私鑰管理爲基礎。

通過可信的錢包界面直接與NFT市場進行交互。

安全的去中心化金融參與，包括質押和借貸活動。

全面的Web3訪問，外部風險最小化。

日常生活的可及性和可用性

盡管安全性仍然是一個主要關注點，但長期持有者也需要能夠簡化日常操作的錢包。無論是可訪問性還是可用性都可能成爲決定性因素，特別是當投資組合多樣化或新的區塊鏈出現時。一個設計良好的硬體錢包可以輕鬆地進行餘額查詢、籤名消息或探索區塊鏈生態系統。

用戶友好的功能，例如清晰的界面、引導式設置流程和響應式客戶支持，使入職流程更加簡單。通過定期更新，信譽良好的硬體錢包可以快速適應不斷變化的環境，增加對新硬幣的支持並整合用戶反饋以提高性能。無論是獲取更多代幣還是參與獨家銷售，這些改進都使硬體錢包成爲專業投資者不可或缺的一部分。

一鍵確認減少了交易錯誤。

多帳戶管理簡化了處理多樣化持有的過程。

方便的移動擴展在移動時提供靈活性。

通過關鍵存儲和冗餘管理風險

無論錢包多麼復雜，私鑰保護的最終責任在於所有者。長期持有者認識到，丟失私鑰意味着永遠失去訪問權限，因此必須採取謹慎的步驟爲事故或意外事件做好準備。

大多數硬體錢包指導用戶創建物理備份——通常是寫下並與設備分開存儲的恢復短語。此備份始終保持離線。一些策略建議冗餘副本，提供多種恢復方法，以防其中一個備份丟失。有效的長期規劃依賴於有序的組織和可靠的技術。

隱私保護解決方案防止未經授權的遠程訪問。

多元化的恢復計劃應對突發緊急情況。

缺乏對外部平台的依賴避免了單點故障。

個人控制與長期戰略之間的聯繫

多年來對加密錢包的信任不僅反映了產品偏好，還表明了對寶貴數字資源的直接管理的承諾。通過保證對私鑰的完全控制和對創新區塊鏈功能的訪問，硬體錢包使用戶能夠不受外部限制地開發個性化策略。

這種方法與加密貨幣中的更大趨勢相吻合，在這些趨勢中，去中心化、隱私和賦權佔據中心舞臺。知道安全交易、購買、銷售以及自信地擁抱新的區塊鏈發展可以通過單一設備進行，這鼓勵了尋求持久內心平靜的經驗豐富、具有前瞻性的持有者的採用。

For individuals aiming to safeguard digital assets over extended periods, selecting the right crypto wallet is a crucial step. Long-term holders—often referred to as “HODLers”—tend to favor storage solutions that offer both security and convenience. As the cryptocurrency landscape continues to

For individuals aiming to safeguard digital assets over extended periods, selecting the right crypto wallet is a crucial step. Long-term holders—often referred to as “HODLers”—tend to favor storage solutions that offer both security and convenience. As the cryptocurrency landscape continues to evolve, understanding why these investors gravitate toward specific wallets reveals much about best practices across the industry. This decision carries significant weight regarding private key management, asset protection, and even participation in blockchain innovations such as NFTs and DeFi.

What is a crypto wallet and how does it function?

A crypto wallet acts as a digital tool designed to store, manage, and interact with cryptocurrencies and tokens in a secure manner. Contrary to popular belief, wallets do not physically hold coins; instead, they generate and securely store the private keys required to authorize transactions on the blockchain. This distinction highlights the core role of crypto wallets: serving as protectors of critical access credentials rather than containers of actual digital currency.

The essential operation of any wallet involves generating two elements—a public address and a private key. When sending or receiving funds, the wallet broadcasts transactions using this information. Only possession of the private key enables modifications to an account’s balance, which is why secure key storage remains paramount for long-term investors who prioritize robust safety standards.

Types of crypto wallets: Diverse options for different needs

The market presents several types of wallets, each tailored to varying demands for security, accessibility, and usability. For those holding investments over the long term, understanding these differences is vital for making informed choices about key storage and protecting assets from threats.

Hot wallets: What sets them apart?

Hot wallets operate while connected to the internet, including software-based applications for smartphones, browsers, or desktops. Their primary advantage lies in quick accessibility. When frequent transactions such as buying, selling, or swapping crypto are a priority, hot wallets excel due to their speed and ease of use.

This convenience comes with a trade-off: constant online connectivity makes hot wallets more exposed to hacking attempts and malware. Even though some employ additional encryption measures, experienced holders typically reserve hot wallets for smaller, day-to-day amounts, recognizing their higher risk profile compared to more secure alternatives.

Cold wallets and hardware wallets: Emphasizing offline protection

Cold wallets generally refer to solutions that remain disconnected from the internet, thereby reducing exposure to cyberthreats. Examples include paper backups or air-gapped computers. However, there is a key distinction—hardware wallets represent a specialized category. Unlike basic cold wallets, a hardware wallet generates and stores private keys within a dedicated device equipped with secure chips.

This structure ensures sensitive data never leaves the protected environment, even when connecting to internet-enabled apps for transaction signing. An excellent example is Ledger, a hardware wallet specifically engineered to create and store keys offline with maximum efficiency—not to be confused with generic cold storage devices.

Custodial vs. self-custody wallets: Who has control?

An important decision for any holder is whether to choose custodial or self-custody wallets. Custodial services require users to trust third parties—such as exchanges or financial providers—with their private keys. While these platforms often offer easy recovery and integrated features, this comes at the cost of true ownership and autonomy.

By contrast, self-custody means retaining sole control over key storage. Long-term holders overwhelmingly prefer this approach, as it aligns with the philosophy of “not your keys, not your coins,” reinforcing both accountability and operational independence when managing digital assets.

Why do long-term holders trust hardware wallets?

Given the wide array of options, what drives long-term planners to consistently select hardware wallets? The answer lies in a unique blend of high-level security, practical usability, and broad functionality—all delivered without compromising on safety.

Unparalleled safety for storing and managing digital assets

Hardware wallets stand out as the gold standard for secure self-custody, thanks to their ability to keep private keys entirely isolated from online threats. Unlike wallets that continuously face internet traffic, hardware wallets eliminate most attack vectors responsible for breaches and theft. Devices like Ledger maintain strict separation between online operations and confidential data, leveraging advanced chips for cryptographic tasks.

This design dramatically reduces the potential for attacks. Private keys are never shared or exported, creating a formidable barrier against phishing scams and computer viruses. Such strong protection directly appeals to investors determined to preserve their accumulated digital wealth over time.

NFTs support, DeFi integration, and Web3 compatibility

Protecting traditional cryptocurrencies is only part of the equation. More long-term holders are exploring new opportunities in NFTs, DeFi, and the broader world of Web3. Not all wallets offer reliable support for these rapidly changing areas. Hardware wallets capable of managing NFTs allow seamless interaction with art, collectibles, and gaming assets while keeping security uncompromised.

Beyond simple transfers, modern hardware wallets integrate smoothly with decentralized finance protocols, enabling users to stake, lend, or swap tokens directly from their device. These capabilities fit perfectly into the expanding vision of Web3, where ownership and autonomy stretch across multiple blockchains—all anchored by safe and convenient private key management.

Direct interaction with NFT marketplaces through a trusted wallet interface.

Secure DeFi participation, including staking and lending activities.

Comprehensive Web3 access with minimized external risks.

Accessibility and usability for daily life

Although security remains a top concern, long-term holders also need wallets that streamline everyday actions. Both accessibility and usability can become decisive factors, especially as portfolios diversify or new blockchains appear. A well-designed hardware wallet provides effortless navigation for checking balances, signing messages, or exploring blockchain ecosystems.

User-friendly features such as clear interfaces, guided setup processes, and responsive customer support make onboarding simpler. With regular updates, reputable hardware wallets quickly adapt to changing environments, adding support for new coins and incorporating user feedback to enhance performance. Whether acquiring more tokens or engaging in exclusive sales, these improvements make hardware wallets indispensable for dedicated investors.

One-button confirmations reduce transaction mistakes.

Multiple account management simplifies handling diverse holdings.

Convenient mobile extensions provide flexibility while on the move.

Managing risk through key storage and redundancy

No matter how sophisticated a wallet may be, ultimate responsibility for private key protection rests with the owner. Long-term holders recognize that losing a private key means losing access forever, so careful steps must be taken to prepare for accidents or unexpected events.

Most hardware wallets guide users in creating physical backups—typically a recovery phrase written down and stored separately from the device. This backup remains offline at all times. Some strategies recommend redundant copies, providing various recovery methods if one backup is misplaced. Effective long-term planning relies on disciplined organization paired with reliable technology.

Privacy-focused solutions prevent unauthorized remote access.

Diversified recovery plans address unforeseen emergencies.

Lack of reliance on external platforms avoids single points of failure.

The link between personal control and long-term strategy

Placing trust in a crypto wallet for years reflects more than just product preference—it demonstrates a commitment to direct stewardship over valuable digital resources. By guaranteeing full control of private keys and access to innovative blockchain features, hardware wallets empower users to develop personalized strategies free from outside restrictions.

This approach matches larger trends in cryptocurrency, where decentralization, privacy, and empowerment take center stage. Knowing that secure transactions, buying, selling, and embracing new blockchain developments can occur confidently from a single device encourages adoption among experienced, forward-thinking holders seeking lasting peace of mind.

The Cryptonomist

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