Bitcoin hits a high of $110,000 but faces resistance, experts warn of short-term volatility risks

Recently, the "Big and Beautiful" tax cut bill was passed in the U.S. House of Representatives and is expected to be officially signed into effect soon. This bill provides funding support for the domestic agenda of the Trump administration but may also lead to millions of Americans losing their health insurance. Although the budget office warned that this move would significantly increase U.S. debt, strong employment data provided a buffer for the policy implementation. The latest non-farm payroll report showed that 147,000 jobs were added in June, and the unemployment rate fell to 4.1%, exceeding market expectations. This data prompted the market to lower expectations for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in July.

However, some analysts hold different views on the economic outlook. The Goldman Sachs analyst team has lowered its forecast for U.S. Treasury yields and expects the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates three times in the third quarter of this year. They believe that job growth primarily relies on government hiring, and the labor participation rate remains weak. Regarding tariff policies, multiple countries are expected to receive new tariff notifications, with rates ranging from 10% to 70%.

The compliance process in the cryptocurrency industry is accelerating. The stablecoin issuer Circle has applied for a national trust bank license in the United States, which is seen as a milestone in the industry's development. If approved, USDC will become the first large stablecoin regulated at the federal level, which is expected to attract more institutional clients and promote industry standardization.

The Bitcoin market is sensitive to macro factors. After the non-farm payroll data was released, Bitcoin briefly surged towards the $110,000 mark but failed to maintain the breakout. Several analysts remain optimistic about Bitcoin's medium to long-term prospects, expecting it to reach a range of $116,000 to $170,000 by the end of the year. However, there is significant resistance around $112,000 in the short term.

The former CEO of a trading platform issued a warning, believing that the short-term contraction of USD liquidity could lead to a correction in the price of Bitcoin to the range of $90,000 to $95,000. He expects that the market may move sideways or slightly decline before the speech of the Federal Reserve Chairman at the end of August, and only after the liquidity recovery in early September may an increase be welcomed.

The performance of the altcoin market is uneven. Some emerging tokens like $PENGU, $LuckyCoin, and $invest have seen significant increases recently, but most tokens are still declining. On a certain platform, $DBC briefly surged, with its market capitalization exceeding 36 million USD at one point.

As of July 4th, 12:00 PM (Hong Kong Time), the price of Bitcoin is $109,188, and the price of Ethereum is $2,579.71. The Fear and Greed Index is at 73, indicating a greedy range. Bitcoin's dominance is at 64.5%, while Ethereum is at 9.2%. In the past 24 hours, approximately 80,000 people globally have encountered liquidations, totaling nearly $200 million.

Looking ahead, analysts believe that Bitcoin's breakthrough of the key resistance level of $112,000 still faces challenges. In the short term, the market may oscillate around $100,000. Investors should closely monitor U.S. economic data, regulatory trends, and institutional capital flows, as these factors will continue to influence the trends in the cryptocurrency market.