Jinshi Summary: What changes will there be in the September Fed Dot Plot?

Question

1. Scotiabank: The dot plot shows that there will be a total of 3 rate cuts in 2024, each time with 25 basis points, and the cumulative rate cut will be 75 basis points, but this may disappoint the market slightly. 2. RBC: The dot plot shows that there will be a total of 3 interest rate cuts in 2024, with 25 basis points each time, and the cumulative rate cut will be 75 basis points, higher than the previous 25 basis points. 3. Nomura Securities: The dot plot shows that there will be a total of 3 interest rate cuts in 2024, with 25 basis points each time, with a cumulative rate cut of 75 basis points, and 100 basis points next year. 4. Barclays: The dot plot shows that there will be a total of 3 interest rate cuts in 2024, each time with 25 basis points, with a cumulative rate cut of 75 basis points, and 125 basis points next year. 5. Unicredit Bank: The dot plot shows that in 2024, there will be a total of 3 interest rate cuts, each time 25 basis points, with a cumulative rate cut of 75 basis points, 100 basis points next year, and 70 basis points in 2026. 5. Danske Bank: The dot plot shows that there will be a total of 3 interest rate cuts in 2024, 25 basis points each time, and 6 interest rate cuts next year, 25 basis points each time, and no rate cut in 2026, with a final Intrerest Rate of 3.00-3.25%. 6. Nordic Si'an Bank: The dot plot shows that in 2024, there will be a total of 3 interest rate cuts, each time with 25 basis points, with a cumulative rate cut of 75 basis points, and another 100 basis points next year, for a total of 175 basis points. 7. Bank of Montreal: The dot plot shows a total of 3 rate cuts in 2024 and 125 basis points next year, with long-term or "neutral" levels likely to be raised. Some participants will expect a rate cut of at least 100 basis points this year. 8. Ernst & Young economist Gregory Daco: The dot plot shows that there will be a total of 3 interest rate cuts in 2024, with a total of 25 basis points each time, with a cumulative rate cut of 75 basis points, and 100 basis points next year. 9. JPMorgan Chase: The dot plot shows that a total of 100 basis points will be cut in 2024, including 50 basis points in September, 25 basis points in November and December, and another 150 basis points next year. 10. Mitsubishi UFJ: The dot plot shows that a total of 100 basis points will be cut in 2024, including 50 basis points in September, and two more rate cuts in November and December, each with 25 basis points.