FOMC Meeting and Future Macroeconomic Outlook

The Federal Reserve's FOMC meeting in May kept interest rates unchanged, emphasizing that the risks to the economic outlook have risen. The meeting adopted a "wait-and-see" strategy, awaiting more economic data and policy changes.

The progress of balance sheet reduction continues to slow down, and attention should be paid to changes in the debt ceiling and bank reserves in terms of liquidity. The Federal Reserve Chair reiterated that economic resilience supports a wait-and-see strategy, and the timing of interest rate cuts will depend on economic data and policy developments, with the June meeting set to reassess the situation. It is recommended to pay attention to the economic data performance after the July tariff suspension expires, and the possibility of a 50-100 basis point rate cut within the year still exists.

In terms of capital flow, ETFs saw an inflow of $919 million this week, although the inflow amount has decreased. Stablecoins increased by 2.549 billion this week, with an average daily increase of 196 million, which is at a moderate level. The premium for over-the-counter stablecoins continues to decline, showing a significant divergence from price trends.

The Bitcoin market is in a fluctuating upward range, with the on-chain chip distribution peak returning to around $93,000. Ethereum's performance is weaker than Bitcoin, with the ETH/BTC ratio maintaining fluctuations and breaking downward this week, as funds continue to flow back into Bitcoin. The number of active addresses on the Ethereum chain is increasing, which may indicate that a phase of bottoming out has been completed.

Overall, the market continues to show a fluctuating recovery trend, but the upward momentum has weakened. It is recommended that investors remain cautious, focusing on the support level of Bitcoin around $91,600, controlling their positions and selecting strong sectors for investment.